Although the two major leagues at that time intended to play down the signs of the competition for its size, the subsequent actions showed that there must be a war between 182 components and 210 components.
Before the army moves, the grain and grass go first
At present, the mainstream size of the market is still 158.75mm, 166mm and other sizes. However, in the second half of this year, the price rising tide in the photovoltaic industry chain has increased the cost of mainstream size modules. The cost difference between larger size modules and mainstream size modules is relatively narrowed. 182mm and 210mm size modules are likely to be promoted in advance. A senior new energy industry analyst told the 21st century economic reporter.
However, whether 182 modules or 210 modules, the imbalance between supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry chain in the second half of this year has brought about the problem of material supply guarantee for module enterprises. This also means that, regardless of the size of the components, the premise of its promotion must be to ensure that the supply of food and grass is adequate.
At the 182 module and system technology forum held in mid November, Longji, Jingke energy and Jingao technology jointly announced that the production capacity of 182 components will reach 54gw next year. Among them, half of Longjis component capacity in 2021 is 182 components; the proportion of Jingke energy is higher, accounting for two-thirds; and Jingao technologys 182 component capacity may reach 20GW.
But the premise of huge capacity landing is whether the tension in the supply chain of photovoltaic materials can be alleviated. Huang Xinming, senior vice president of Jingao technology, said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter that the company will actively digest the negative impact of supply chain tension, and its shipment volume and performance targets are expected to be completed this year. Tight supply chains are short-term problems that can be solved. She Haifeng, senior vice president of Longji global marketing, believes that, taking the photovoltaic glass which is in short supply at present, many non photovoltaic glass manufacturers are entering the industry, and the glass shortage in the future should not exist for a long time.
In fact, three leading companies pushing 182 modules are already in the process of storing photovoltaic materials. In the second half of this year, the company announced to spend 10 billion yuan to lock in the supply of polysilicon materials and photovoltaic glass in the next five years.
In the 210 component camp, the main force Trina Solar energy is even more fierce.
On November 20, the company announced that it had reached a procurement cooperation framework agreement with the subsidiary company of China Huanqiu International Co., Ltd., and planned to purchase 210 size single crystal silicon wafers from January to December next year, with a total quantity of no less than 1.2 billion pieces, and the total contract amount is expected to be 6.552 billion yuan. In view of the purchase, Trina Solar said, to ensure the long-term stability of the companys supply chain, and provide a strong guarantee for the companys capacity planning and market expansion of 210 size photovoltaic cells and modules.
According to the calculation of the 21st century economic report, Trina Solar only announced in November the total amount of material procurement and investment plan for 210 components exceeded 30 billion yuan.
On November 3, Trina Solar Energy signed a major procurement contract with Shanghai CNC. It is planned to purchase no less than 20GW of single crystal silicon wafers from 2021 to 2025, corresponding to 2 billion pieces of 210 size single crystal silicon wafers. The total contract amount is expected to be 10.240 billion yuan.
A few days ago, the company formed a Tongtian alliance with Tongwei Co., Ltd., and planned to establish a project company and jointly invest in the project with an annual output of 40000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon, an annual output of 15gw pull rod project, an annual output of 15gw chip production project, and an annual output of 15gw high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery project. The total investment amount is estimated to be 15 billion yuan.
By the end of this year, the companys total component capacity is 22gw, of which 210 components are up to 10GW. Trina Solar insiders told the 21st century economic report that by the end of 2021, the total production capacity of Trina Solar components is expected to exceed 50gw, and the capacity of 210 components will exceed 40gw.
Its hard to separate the two tigers from each other
The industry is used to turning the debate between 182 components and 210 components into a battle between conservatives and innovators. This is because the technical transformation of 182 components can be upgraded on the existing production line, while the capacity of 210 components needs new investment.
However, in the view of senior analysts in the new energy industry, the current debate on large-scale components is not like the technological innovation in the past, such as single crystal replacing polycrystalline. 21st century economic reporter noticed that the cost reduction brought by large-scale components has been recognized by the industry. However, whether 182 module or 210 component is more successful is the public says that the public is reasonable, and the woman is reasonable.
Yu Hanbo, senior global product manager of Jingke energy, believes that one of the ways to reduce cost is to increase the power generation capacity of the power station by reducing line loss and internal loss. Compared with the 55P 210 module, 182 module can reduce 0.21% line loss and 2% internal loss, and this part of the cost can be compensated by the EPC cost of more than 0.1 yuan / watt. In terms of BOS cost, 182 can save about 2.6 minutes / watt compared with 210 components.
According to the insiders of Trina Solar, 210 module products can effectively reduce the total cost of the whole photovoltaic system, especially in the support inverter and cable level, which can reduce about 0.1 yuan per watt.
At present, leading enterprises have enough capital strength to choose which component size to upgrade. The aforementioned analysts believe that in the future, 182 components and 210 components will compete with each other, and will be selected by market demand.
The analyst also pointed out that it has been a long-standing phenomenon in the domestic photovoltaic industry to form an alliance through size standards to block another competitive size, but such alliances are likely to change dynamically now.
The reporter of 21st century economic report found that at present, the new production capacity announced by domestic photovoltaic enterprises is basically compatible to 210mm, which is to prepare for larger size in the future. Taking Jingao technology of 182 component camp as an example, the Yiwu 10GW high efficiency battery + 10GW high efficiency components project production line officially put into production at the end of October this year is compatible with less than 210mm. There are no forever friends, only permanent interests. Tongwei shares of the change also illustrates this point. Before the recent announcement of a 15 billion yuan photovoltaic industry chain project with Trina Solar, Tongwei and Longji reached strategic cooperation as early as 2017. The size debate is only the result of the current selection of the major component heads at this stage. The aforementioned analysts believe that in todays capital strength increase, leading enterprises can not only bet on a size or technology.
The reporter of 21st century economic report found that at present, the new production capacity announced by domestic photovoltaic enterprises is basically compatible to 210mm, which is to prepare for larger size in the future. Taking Jingao technology of 182 component camp as an example, the Yiwu 10GW high efficiency battery + 10GW high efficiency components project production line officially put into production at the end of October this year is compatible with less than 210mm.
Before the recent announcement of a 15 billion yuan photovoltaic industry chain project with Trina Solar, Tongwei and Longji reached strategic cooperation as early as 2017.
The size debate is only the result of the current selection of the major component heads at this stage. The aforementioned analysts believe that in todays capital strength increase, leading enterprises can not only bet on a size or technology.