Price changes in 15 sub provincial cities: Shenzhen is 7.6 times higher than Changchun, and 4 cities are falling

 Price changes in 15 sub provincial cities: Shenzhen is 7.6 times higher than Changchun, and 4 cities are falling

Shenzhen first, Xiamen second

According to the data, in October 2020, the average unit price of Shenzhen reached 78722 yuan per square meter, far ahead of 15 cities, 1.6 times higher than Xiamen and 7.6 times higher than Changchun, the last place.

According to the sales price change data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in October 2020 released by the National Bureau of statistics, Shenzhens second-hand housing prices have risen by 83.6% in the past five years, ranking first among 70 cities. In addition, in October this year, Shenzhens second-hand housing prices rose 0.9% month on month and 15.5% year-on-year. Both indicators ranked first in China.

That is to say, after the introduction of the new policy of property market regulation in Shenzhen on July 15 this year, Shenzhens house prices are still facing greater upward pressure. On July 15 this year, Shenzhen Bureau of housing and urban rural development and other departments jointly issued the notice on further promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market in our city. The main contents of the notice involve six aspects, such as house purchasing qualification, down payment ratio, luxury housing line, and value-added tax exemption from transfer.

Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong provincial housing policy research center, analyzed the first finance and economics that the rise in housing prices in Shenzhen in October was related to the downward trend of bank mortgage interest rates. Banks regard Shenzhens housing loan market as a very high-quality market worth occupying, so the interest rate is generally not too high. In addition, in addition to banks, Shenzhen has a variety of small loan companies, private equity institutions, house management companies and other institutions are providing shells to Shenzhens property market. Shenzhens real estate financing is particularly convenient.

At the same time, the price rise in Shenzhen is still affected by supply and demand. Although the regulation on the demand side has been significantly strengthened, the demand for house purchase is still large, and the gap on the demand side is still obvious. Data show that in the past four years, Shenzhen has actually supplied 766.6 hectares of residential land, accounting for only 14.2% of the actual supply of construction land. In the past three years, only 81000 units of housing have been supplied each year, which is difficult to meet the housing demand of 370000 new people per year. The housing ownership rate of permanent residents is only 24%.

Li Yujia said that the shortage of land supply in Shenzhen can not be solved in the short and medium term. On the one hand, in the case of limited land area in Shenzhen, it is necessary to solve the problem of land supply in Shenzhen through the outward expansion of Shenzhen metropolitan area, but it also involves the coordination among several cities, including the interconnection of rail transit, equalization of public services such as education and medical treatment, etc., which is very difficult to solve. On the other hand, the adjustment of ecological land in Shenzhen is not easy to solve. Industrial land outside the industrial block line is converted to residential land. This is also being done, but it is also difficult.

After Shenzhen, Xiamen, which is also a special economic zone and a city with separate planning, had an average unit price of 48169 yuan per square meter in October, ranking second among the sub provincial cities, second only to Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai, ranking fourth in China and surpassing Guangzhou, the first tier city. It is worth noting that as a second tier medium-sized city, Xiamens GDP ranks third in Fujian Province after Quanzhou and Fuzhou, ranking 33rd in China, and the citys population size only ranks 27th in China.

Wang Qi, a local real estate insider and chairman of Xiamen JUNHE real estate land appraisal consulting Co., Ltd., told the first financial reporter that, on the one hand, Xiamen attracted a large number of purchasing power from Quanzhou, Zhangzhou and other places due to its advantages in education and urban construction. But on the other hand, the housing supply in Xiamen in the past few years is obviously lower than the growth of population and housing demand, and there is a large debt gap. For example, Xiamens annual housing supply is only about 3 million square meters, which belongs to the small plate among the major cities in China. Once the supply is increased, it will obviously restrain the high house prices.

Harbin encourages enterprises to reduce prices

Guangzhou, the first tier city, ranks third in the sub provincial cities with an average unit price of 38351 yuan per square meter, which is less than half of that of Shenzhen, a sister city in the same province. Prior to this, in October, the shell Research Institute released the 2020 urban rigid demand housing purchase report, which for the first time checked the just needed boarding baseline in major cities. Among them, the average price of Guangzhou (1.98 million) Gang demand on the train is only about 57% of that in Beijing and Shenzhen, ranking only sixth in China. More reasonable prices also allow many rigid demand families to buy houses early.

The average unit price of Nanjing and Hangzhou, the capital cities of the two major economic provinces in the Yangtze River Delta, also exceeds 30000 yuan per square meter, ranking fourth or fifth in the sub provincial cities. In addition, the average unit price of Ningbo and Qingdao, two cities separately listed in the plan from the developed eastern coastal areas, exceeds 20000 yuan per square meter, ranking sixth and seventh.

After Qingdao, Wuhan from central China ranked eighth with 19021 yuan per square meter, and Chengdu ranked ninth. The housing prices of the two cities exceeded Jinan, the capital of Shandong Province, the third largest economic province. It is worth noting that Wuhan and Chengdu are not only the two cities with the highest housing prices in the central and western regions, but also the two cities with the largest number of high-tech industries in the central and western regions. It can be seen that the level of industrial development is the most important basis for the level of urban housing prices.

On the whole, the housing prices of the 15 sub provincial cities show a trend of north-south differentiation. The cities with high house prices all come from the southeast coastal areas, and the last six cities all come from the north. In terms of spatial distribution, South China is the highest, the Yangtze River Delta is the second, Shandong, the central and western regions are again, and the northeast is the lowest. If we look at the situation of the five cities with separate plans, the order of house prices is Shenzhen, Xiamen, Ningbo, Qingdao and Dalian, showing a trend of gradual decline from south to north.

The difference of housing price differentiation between the northern and southern cities is related to the economic development, especially the development of emerging industries and population flow in recent years, as well as the economic structure and topography. Zhang Guowei, the chief financial and economic analyst, is the first person to analyze the housing market in northern China. He is the first one who does not need to analyze the industrialization process of real estate, including a large number of local property developers.

In terms of topography and geomorphology, the northern region is dominated by plains with more land, while in the south, especially in Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong along the southeast coast, there are more mountains and less flat land, and many cities are in short supply.

According to Zhang Daweis analysis, after the general rise of the property market in 2016 and 2017, the regional differentiation is very obvious since last year. While the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are rising, many cities in the Yellow River Basin, North China and Northeast China are going down. The main reason for this differentiation is the differences in the development of emerging industries and population mobility.

Since the second half of this year, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other places have tightened the regulation of the property market, while Harbin has relaxed. According to the recent report of Harbin Daily, in order to seriously implement the relevant national, provincial and municipal decisions and arrangements, and support real estate and construction enterprises to actively cope with the difficulties caused by the epidemic to enterprises production and operation, Harbin will issue the notice on relevant policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the citys real estate market during the epidemic period (hereinafter referred to as the notice), announcing specific support measures Give. There are 14 supporting measures in the notice. Among them, it is necessary to relax the provident fund loan policy, encourage real estate enterprises to sell with interest, and support financial institutions to provide equal policy support for residential apartment products to enjoy residential mortgage loans.

Behind the loosening are the local high inventory pressure and the greater economic downward pressure. The data show that in the first three quarters, Harbin GDP fell 3.3% year on year, ranking the second lowest in the national citys top gdp50. The total GDP is the last in the sub provincial cities, which has dropped to 47th among all cities, and is behind the third tier cities, such as Taizhou, Luoyang and Linyi.

Figure: unit prices of 15 sub provincial cities in October

Source: Wang Wenhua, editor in charge of the first finance and Economics_ NF5982