At present, the stock of breeding sows and live pigs is growing rapidly, and the production and marketing of breeding pigs and piglets are booming. According to the monitoring, 39.5 million sows could be bred in October, an increase of 32% over the same period last year; 387 million sows were on hand, an increase of 27% over the same period last year. At present, pig production capacity has recovered to about 88% at the end of 2017. According to this trend, in the second quarter of next year, the national pig inventory will basically return to the level of normal years.
In October, 728 new scale pig farms were put into operation. Since the beginning of this year, 13000 new scale pig farms have been put into operation, and another 15000 scale pig farms which were empty last year began to be reared. Sows supply capacity was significantly enhanced, and the sales of binary sows increased by 102.6% in the first three quarters. New born piglets continued to increase, the supply gradually relaxed, and the price dropped sharply. The price of piglets in some provinces has dropped from the peak of 2000 yuan per head to less than 1000 yuan.
Pig market supply increased significantly, and pork prices fell sharply for more than two consecutive months. The person in charge said that the fattening cycle from piglets to fattening pigs is generally six months. In the early stage, the new production capacity was gradually released, and the supply of listed pigs increased significantly. In September of this year, the first year-on-year increase in pig production was achieved, which was the first year-on-year increase after a 25 month drop in the market. In October, the year-on-year increase of 38.5% continued to expand, and the supply of pork market improved significantly. Pork prices have fallen for more than two consecutive months since September. In the second week of November, pork prices in the national market fell to 46.47 yuan per kilogram, down 18.0% year-on-year, more than 13 yuan lower than the highest price in the third week of February.
With the arrival of winter, especially the new years day and spring festival consumption peak season, pork consumption will continue to grow, but the recovery of production will lead to a significant increase in pork supply. It is expected that the supply situation of pork market will be further improved. On the supply side, with the gradual release of new production capacity, the number of listed pigs will be further expanded. It is estimated that the pork supply during the new years Day (December 2020 to February 2021) will increase by about 30% over the same period of last year. In terms of demand, the increase in consumption during the new years day and the spring festival may lead to a wave of rise in pork prices (generally 6% to 10% in normal years), but the overall level will be lower than that in the same period of last year.
What needs to be concerned is that the profits of professional fattening households who buy piglets at high prices in the early stage have been greatly narrowed. In the second week of November, the average price of live pigs in China has dropped to 29.74 yuan per kilogram. If the price falls by another 3 to 4 yuan, professional fattening households may suffer losses. The person in charge cautioned.