Nonferrous plate in the near future overall strong, Shanghai lead 2101 contract rose 5.08% yesterday. Analysts said the blizzard weather in Inner Mongolia this week affected the transportation of lead concentrates, lead ingots and waste materials. If the road is blocked by the blizzard for a long time, the market is worried that the raw lead supply may be reduced due to the shortage of raw materials.
Lead and zinc rise hand in hand
It is understood that from the macro level, the current low interest rate policy in the global market is expected to remain for a long time. The continued weakening of the US dollar index has a strong support for the prices of commodities. On the domestic side, the recently released economic data for October performed well and the economic recovery momentum was good. On the foreign side, the European and American new crown vaccine made a major breakthrough, which boosted market confidence. In addition, after the US presidential election, the market focused on the launch of a new round of economic stimulus plan, and the overall expectation was optimistic. Therefore, macro factors support the non-ferrous plate to maintain a strong operation. But on the other hand, due to the different supply and demand sides of various varieties in the nonferrous metal plate, there are still obvious differences in performance. Market funds also switch back and forth between hot varieties. On Friday, lead and zinc became the top two biggest gainers.
Liu Peiyang, researcher of nonferrous metals of Zhongyuan futures, told futures daily that Shanghai lead 2101 contract rose 5.08% on Friday. There are two main driving factors for the rise: one is the snowstorm in Inner Mongolia this week, which affects the transportation of lead concentrate, lead ingot and waste materials. If the snowstorm lasts for a long time, the market is worried that the supply of primary lead may be reduced due to the shortage of raw materials u3002 Second, with the rise of lead price, although the smelters profit has been restored, SMM data shows that as of November 19, the loss of recycled lead is still 541 yuan / ton, and the actual profit margin of the enterprise is still small. When it is superimposed into the heating season, some smelting enterprises in Henan, Hebei and other places have actually extended the shutdown time due to the environmental protection measures to limit production, and the recovery of recycled lead supply in a short period of time is limited The supply of raw lead is expected to be tight under the influence of environmental factors. However, from the downstream, as of November 20, the comprehensive weekly operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hebei was stable at about 70%. The terminal consumption performance of lead-acid battery market was general, and the consumer side could not provide impetus for the continuous upward trend of lead price. Therefore, it is difficult for lead price to break through the August high of 16300 yuan / T in the near future.
The reporter found that for zinc, although the increase on Friday was less than that of lead, the cumulative increase in the year was significantly ahead of other non-ferrous metal varieties. People in the industry believe that the supply of low end zinc mines is still tight, and the main reason is that the supply of some smelters is still tight.
Specifically, according to SMM data, as of November 13, the processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate was 4700 yuan / ton, a new low since the end of October 2018. The continuous decline of processing costs to a certain extent indicates that the supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and there are maintenance and production reduction plans for some smelters. Generally speaking, the supply side is tight.
From the downstream point of view, at present, the downstream orders are weakening on a month on month basis and entering the heating season, and some downstream enterprises restrict production due to environmental protection problems, and the overall consumption of the downstream is weakened. However, as long as the support of the decline in processing costs at the supply end is still there, the overall price of zinc should rise rather than fall, which may test the first line of 22000 yuan / ton. Liu Peiyang said.
Precious metal multi space factors interweave
The news of the novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine development is progressing smoothly in recent years. Investors are expected to increase the economic recovery and increase the market risk. This has caused some pressure on the operation of precious metals. In addition, the RMB continued to appreciate, and the domestic precious metal prices priced in RMB were significantly weaker than the external market, and the attractiveness of domestic gold and silver was further reduced.
The reporter found that the heat of gold and silver has been declining recently, and gold ETF has indeed seen a rare capital outflow in November. There are some negative views in the market, including gold price has peaked, gold has lost its long-term value and investment value. Gold from the previous sweet cake to dislike, investors have embraced the short-term yield of higher stocks, nonferrous metals, energy, and other varieties, contrary to the heat a few months ago, qualified investors just want to take advantage of the repeatability of this sentiment.
In the future, monetary and fiscal policies will still be the core variables affecting the precious metal market. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is a long time to take place. Even if the new crown pneumonia vaccine is launched, its promotion and entry into force will take some time, and the boost to the economy will take longer. Lagarde, European central bank governor and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have recently expressed a cautious attitude towards improving the economic prospects of the vaccine. Wang Yanqing, a precious metal researcher at CSCI futures, said.
It is understood that the Federal Reserve said that it would continue to use all emergency tools during the epidemic period, maintain the level of near zero interest rate for a long time, and the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve also reached a record high. And European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is ready to readjust measures recently, and increase the scale of bond purchase in December. As a result, loose money will continue to support precious metals.
Recently, there have been setbacks in fiscal policy. The new US fiscal stimulus bill is still deadlocked, and the differences between the two parties are still difficult to resolve. The EUs 1.8 trillion Euro fiscal stimulus plan is blocked by the opposition of the two member states. The market is worried about further economic contraction.
Huang Yan, a precious metals researcher at founder medium term futures, believes that gold in November did cause capital outflow due to the heat, but the amount of ETF gold deposited since last year is hundreds of tons, and the outflow of only 28.35 tons is unable to shake the position confidence of the rest of the funds, and the outflow is only short-term hot money or short-term funds.
From the perspective of gold operation strategy, Huangyan believes that gold may be low in November. Gold has very strong support below 1760-1820 US dollars / ounce, and the upper extreme value is 2350 dollars / ounce. According to the current price of 1860 US dollars / ounce, the profit loss ratio of going long may be 5:1 or even higher. The extreme value range corresponds to the fluctuation range of Shanghai and gold at 375-380 yuan / g and 480-490 yuan / G above. Medium and long-term investors can consider making 2104 or 2102 contracts, holding them until before and after the Spring Festival, and do the trend market in the spring peak season. Huang Yan said.
Two meals rose, oil meal ratio fluctuated at high level
According to bi Hui, a senior agricultural products researcher at Baocheng futures, the main factor that dominates the soybean meal futures price is the rise of American soybean futures in the external market, which has reached a high level of 4.5 years. The continuous strong demand for American soybean export and the record level of soybean crushing in the United States have jointly constructed an important support for the future price of American beans. In particular, the supply and demand pattern of soybean in South America has changed significantly this year. Brazils soybean price is at a record high, which makes Brazil have to increase the import of soybean to meet the domestic market demand. The shortage of soybean supply in Argentina is mainly due to farmers large-scale hoarding of soybeans to resist the risk of economic recession. Argentinas soybean processing plants are obviously short of available beans The export of Ting beans and manufactured products showed a cliff like decline, which forced the countries that used to import beans and finished products from South America to the United States, accelerating the tightening expectation of US soybean stocks. Especially in the context of the USDAs reduction of the year-end inventory of U.S. beans to nearly 7-year lows, benchmarking the average price of U.S. beans during the period of low inventory in 2013 / 2014 of US $13-14/bushel, it is obvious that the current price of us beans is still under the imagination of less than US $12 / bushel, which also promotes the recent net multiple positions of speculative funds to return to the historical high, which constitutes a capital expenditure on the US soybean futures price Hold.
In addition, although the weather situation in South America soybean producing areas is favorable for sowing in recent years, which has accelerated the soybean planting speed in Brazil and Argentina, due to the markets high attention to the development and change of La Nina, it is difficult for the accumulated weather risk premium of U.S. beans to return significantly in the short term, which supports the trend that the US soybean futures price is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
It is reported that domestic soybeans continue to be supported by the cost side of imported beans. Although the domestic soybean port inventory is still hovering at the historical high of 8 million tons, the price and inventory of domestic imported beans are still rising simultaneously. Although the psychology of oil mills is still strong, the terminal consumption has not improved significantly, which makes some oil mills have pressure to expand their stocks. As of November 15, the domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to 933000 tons, which suppresses the price of soybean meal. Therefore, soybean meal futures price is still mainly driven by raw material cost. Driven by the expectation that the end market consumption is about to usher in the peak demand season in the year, the strong operation pattern of soybean meal futures price will continue. The change of terminal consumption, especially the change of feed demand, will determine the process of soybean meal de stocking, and will also determine whether the soybean meal futures price is driven by raw material cost or consumption.
Compared with soybean meal, the supply pattern of rapeseed meal market is obviously tight. International rapeseed prices hit a three-year high, and Canadian demand for rapeseed exports remained strong. As of November 8, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 285900 tons, and the domestic consumption was 206000 tons. After Europe announced that it would continue to reduce the blending ratio of soybean oil and palm oil to biodiesel, it also continued to push up the consumption expectation of rapeseed oil and aggravate the supply shortage expectation of international rapeseed market.
From the same period of last year, the import of rapeseed decreased from 2.3495 million tons to 2.379 million tons in the same period of last year, and the latest data showed that the import of rapeseed decreased from 2.349 million tons to 2.379 million tons in the same period of last year. In September, China imported 270300 tons of rapeseed from Canada, Australia, Russia, Mongolia and Belgium. Among them, about 257700 tons of Canadian rapeseed were imported, accounting for 71.32%. As a result, Canadian rapeseed prices continue to rise, pushing up domestic rapeseed import costs. As of the week of November 13, the domestic coastal rapeseed inventory rebounded to 315000 tons, which was under the historical center. Compared with the soybean meal inventory, the domestic coastal rapeseed inventory suffered little inventory pressure. Compared with rapeseed, no matter in Guangdong, Guangdong and Fujian regions, the rapeseed meal will maintain zero inventory status, which also means that once the price rebounds, the rebound momentum of rapeseed meal price will be stronger without inventory pressure. Although the demand of rapeseed meal market turns weak seasonally, but in the process of price rebound, the future price of rapeseed meal leads to the rise of soybean meal.
In the later stage, although there is still the possibility of repeated oil meal price comparison, the active oil meal arbitrage fund performance in the market will still suppress the overall performance of meal futures price. However, driven by the cost side of raw materials, the upward oscillation pattern of meal price will continue, and the performance of rapeseed meal is stronger than that of soybean meal for the time being. What needs to be focused on in the later stage is the start of feed demand and the promotion effect on the de stocking of soybean meal. Once the market focus changes, the main factors driving the upward trend of soybean meal price will return to the soybean meal varieties, and the soybean meal futures price is expected to meet the supplementary rise. Bi Hui said.
The black color is bright red
On Friday, the biggest increase in black lines was ferrosilicon. Fang Guodong, a researcher in the black Department of Zhongyuan futures, believes that there are two main reasons for the sharp rise of ferrosilicon Futures: first, the temperature in the north is falling, and the transportation is not smooth due to heavy snow. As the main manufacturers of ferrosilicon are in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and other regions, the bad weather causes the rise of freight prices, thus driving the bullish mood of the already tense ferrosilicon spot market. Second, the output of downstream steel mills continues to maintain at a high level, and the demand for ferrosilicon continues to increase. Although it is still in the inflection point stage of steel consumption decline, the apparent consumption of steel is still at a high level, and the steel output has not declined significantly, and the inflection point of production decline continues to move backward, resulting in strong demand for ferrosilicon; and the export demand for magnesium continues Release, the deal continued to rise, the price of magnesium plant continued to rise, magnesium plant confidence improved, also driven the demand for ferrosilicon.
On November 20, according to Mysteel, the operating rate of 128 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China was 51.53%, an increase of 1.63% over the previous week; at the same time, the average weekly output was 15934 tons, an increase of 315 tons, and the weekly output of ferrosilicon in China was 111500 tons, an increase of 2.02% compared with last week, and the supply was gradually increasing. According to the quotation, the spot price of ferrosilicon in the main production area is about 5700-5750 yuan / ton, which basically remains unchanged, and the market operation is relatively stable. The steel bidding in November is basically completed, but the steel bidding in December has not been opened, and the market transaction has also slowed down slightly. The manufacturers basically focus on the delivery of early orders. Meanwhile, the price of orchid charcoal at the raw material end continues to be strong, and the cost of ferrosilicon continues to be tense due to environmental problems Push up the support of ferrosilicon prices, especially in the case of tight spot, manufacturers are not in a hurry to ship, manufacturers offer firm.
Coke rose sharply on Friday, mainly due to the impact of de capacity. Everbright futures double Jiao researcher Wang Xintong said. According to the survey data of Mysteel, as of November 20, 2020, the total production capacity of coke in Henan Province is 25.65 million tons, that of Henan Province is 25.5 million tons, and that of 4.3-meter coke oven is 12 million tons. 10.1 million tons will be shut down by the end of the year. Due to their own loans or new coke oven production needs gas oven drying and other issues, the implementation time is different. Most will be available by the end of December this year. At the same time, Shanxi still has the task of de capacity. Therefore, in the case of continued promotion of de capacity, it will promote the rise of coke. At present, the seventh round of coke rose to the ground.
In terms of demand, blast furnace operation continued to decline and hot metal output decreased. Therefore, both supply and demand of coke decreased. In terms of inventory, steel mills are still in the process of continuous replenishment, and steel mills in some areas have been replenished to a medium level. Coking plant coke inventory remains low. Port concentration increased, while inventory increased slightly. Total coke inventory rose. In the later stage, the de capacity will continue to affect, but the pig iron output has also decreased. After the sharp rise in the plate, short-term or oscillatory adjustment is the main. We still need to pay attention to the de capacity process. Wang Xintong said. At the same time, the high price of coking coal also supports coke. In terms of coking coal supply, under the influence of coal mine accidents, safety inspection continued to be strict. Near the end of the year, most of the coal mines are safe production, and the domestic production is gradually declining. It is still difficult for Australian coal to pass customs at the import end. It is reported that the General Administration of Customs stressed at Fridays meeting that Australian coal, which has arrived at the anchorage, will not receive any more coal. It is required to leave the port as soon as possible and suspend the customs clearance of all unloaded but not cleared goods. Industry insiders said that from the current Sino Australian relations, the possibility of Australias coal liberalization is small. The decrease of coking coal supply also brings price support to coking coal. Source: futures daily editor: Wang Xiaowu_ NF
In terms of demand, blast furnace operation continued to decline and hot metal output decreased. Therefore, both supply and demand of coke decreased. In terms of inventory, steel mills are still in the process of continuous replenishment, and steel mills in some areas have been replenished to a medium level. Coking plant coke inventory remains low. Port concentration increased, while inventory increased slightly. Total coke inventory rose. In the later stage, the de capacity will continue to affect, but the pig iron output has also decreased. After the sharp rise in the plate, short-term or oscillatory adjustment is the main. We still need to pay attention to the de capacity process. Wang Xintong said.
At the same time, the high price of coking coal also supports coke. In terms of coking coal supply, under the influence of coal mine accidents, safety inspection continued to be strict. Near the end of the year, most of the coal mines are safe production, and the domestic production is gradually declining. It is still difficult for Australian coal to pass customs at the import end.
It is reported that the General Administration of Customs stressed at Fridays meeting that Australian coal, which has arrived at the anchorage, will not receive any more coal. It is required to leave the port as soon as possible and suspend the customs clearance of all unloaded but not cleared goods. Industry insiders said that from the current Sino Australian relations, the possibility of Australias coal liberalization is small. The decrease of coking coal supply also brings price support to coking coal.