From 1990 to 2020, Chinas capital market has gone through 30 years of ups and downs, and has achieved fruitful results.
As a pathfinder and practitioner in the research field of domestic securities companies, Li Xunlei has accompanied Chinas capital market all the way and witnessed numerous important moments in the 30-year eventful course. The seller research mode of research service sharing transaction commission income proposed by him has also created a precedent in the industry, which has led to the sellers research from free internal service to market-oriented external service transformation.
Recently, interface news gave an exclusive interview to Li Xunlei, chief economist of China Thailand securities. He talked about his indissoluble bond with Chinas capital market. At the same time, he also put forward his own views and opinions on hot topics such as the transformation of sellers research, the merger and integration of securities companies, and the construction of multi-level capital market.
The following is the full version of the interview:
Study on the seller
Interface news: what reasons and opportunities did you choose to leave university and enter the securities industry to do capital market research?
Li Xunlei: at that time, it was still the age of job assignment after graduation. The work was not selected by oneself, but planned. In Colleges and universities to do research can not form a very close combination with the actual, I still want to achieve self-worth in social practice. At that time, Chinas capital market was also in its infancy. Before the establishment of the two exchanges in 1990, I was entrusted to write books on Chinas capital market. In the process of writing, I also have some superficial understanding of Chinas securities market and global capital market, and I also want to actively participate in the construction of Chinas capital market. At that time, Chinas securities industry was in urgent need of introducing a group of people with strong learning ability and certain research skills. This industry did not have high professional requirements. Even if you had studied undergraduate, you could join in no matter what major, which gave me such an opportunity.
Interface news: like the new Chinese capital market, the accompanying securities research is also from scratch. You are the pioneer of domestic seller research model, and you have the reputation of godfather of securities research in the industry. Looking back on the germination and development of the securities research industry, what time points do you remember deeply?
Chinas capital market is a multi-party market. In addition to listed companies as the main body of the market, there are also many institutional investors and individual investors.
At the same time, we have a group of industry and company researchers who study the listed companies and participate in the research activities of listed companies with relevant professional background, which should also be relatively advanced in Chinas capital market.
Li Xunlei: the times are constantly developing and progressing. It is only after institutional investors in 2000 that the study of sellers really transformed.
Before 2000, the research institutions of securities companies were basically internal service. Internal service is a monopoly service, which has certain limitations. There are some defects in the quality and quantity of its service. Therefore, in 2001, I proposed to let customers change our research mode, and the sellers research model was gradually formed.
At the beginning, the number of sellers was still relatively small. Research is scarce, but the demand is very large. After that, with the increasing number of research institutions in securities companies, the research team of sellers is becoming larger and larger, which leads to another problem: the surplus of seller research.
In this case, the selection of new wealth has become an important basis for researchers to improve their salary level. Therefore, some irregularities in the selection process will appear. Now, with the strengthening of securities industry supervision and the level of supervision keeping pace with the times, the various evaluation indicators of analysts are becoming more objective and diversified. If we all take the media selection as the basis to enhance their market value and influence, it is certainly not comprehensive and objective.
Generally speaking, the sellers transformation, on the one hand, can transform from the customers object, from the scope of service. At present, the number of the seller research team is excessive. If we only serve public funds or private funds, we will still stay in the old routine. Therefore, we should provide more services now. In addition to QFII, Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect, these overseas investors can serve as service objects, such as bank financing subsidiary, which can also be an important customer. This only refers to the service objects of the secondary market.
In the primary market, with the full spread of the registration system, more listed companies will enter our capital market, and there will be more capital market service modes and customers. For example, how to provide consulting services and financial consulting services for companies to be listed, and how to provide professional services for overseas investment institutions. In addition, our local governments also need to transform and develop. Can the sellers research institutions act as local economic consultants and provide services to local governments?
Second, the research model should also be transformed. In the past, we basically relied on manual writing of research reports. With the development of artificial intelligence and the development of financial technology, intelligent investment and research should also be developed. We need to use robots to write articles and reports to replace manual work. Although it is impossible to completely replace them, at least they can be partially replaced.
In the era of big data, we will have more data and information. Take macro research as an example. In the past, we mainly relied on the data of the National Bureau of statistics, but now we can also rely on market data, such as online shopping consumer behavior data, population mobility data, and so on. In the era of data economy, we should change and adjust the research methods and models of seller research. We should embrace the achievements of financial technology to provide more effective and valuable services.
For example, if he is a research team leader, I think he should be more comprehensive to strengthen, deepen and expand his research scope. At present, the division between research teams is relatively obvious, and each industry has its own. In my opinion, whether doing industry research, macro research or quantitative research, we need to learn from each other and integrate with each other. We should not only conduct single research on our own industry, but should be diversified.
Generally speaking, macro research is top-down research, while fundamental research is bottom-up research. What I advocate is that both macro research and industry research, top-down and bottom-up methods and modes should be carried out.
Interface news: what do you think of the emerging post-90s CEOs?
Li Xunlei: I was engaged in research in my 30s. In the 1990s, I was also the chief. Now it has been 30 years. I take it for granted that the post-90s should be the chief executive. The market should give equal opportunities to those who have research ability, depth and hobby.
No matter under any circumstances, since we do research, we must have depth, width and height, so that we can do a good job. If we only pursue fast-food research, the research is certainly difficult to go deep. Therefore, I think age is not a problem. The key lies in the attitude towards research, and we must be serious and rigorous.
About the temporary listing of ants
In my opinion, it is not realistic to rush to the market before the regulatory measures for Internet financial enterprises are introduced, and before the definition of financial monopoly and anti-monopoly measures are introduced. Because the requirement under the registration system is full disclosure of information, it is not clear how the relevant regulatory system affects the valuation level before listing, which is also irresponsible to investors. As for the way to rectify before listing, it is not easy to judge.
Li Xunlei: the traditional A-share market is dominated by state-owned enterprises, and companies with large market value are basically state-owned enterprises. Ants and other enterprises do financial services. If they go public, they also reflect the characteristics of Chinas economic transformation.
On the merger tide of securities companies
Li Xunlei: the development of the capital market actually reflects the changes in Chinas economic structure. The merger of securities companies also reflects that the division of our society is becoming more and more obvious. In the past, it was in the stage of high economic growth, so large companies and small companies all have development opportunities, and even small companies have a higher growth rate.
As Chinas economic growth slows down, the characteristics of stock economy become more and more obvious, which will lead to differentiation at this time. Once the differentiation, many small and medium-sized enterprises are under increasing pressure, and there will be some difficulties in the sustainability of operation. At this time, M & a naturally occurs. And this kind of merger and acquisition is basically a strong and weak mode, a big and small mode.
Therefore, I think it is reasonable for Chinas investment banking industry to merge strong and weak or large and small, but the possibility of strong strong combination is not very large.
The capital market is highly market-oriented and mainly depends on people. For example, the large investment banks abroad basically adopt the partnership system, because everyone has their own resources and business expertise, so we can work together. Therefore, the merger of capital markets, to create aircraft carrier securities companies, depends on whether people can integrate with each other. Im afraid that the system and mechanism should be more rationalized, rather than the kind of matchmaking. If it is a purely administrative merger, it is easy to produce the result of 1 + 1 less than 2.
On the current economic and capital market situation
Li Xunlei: with the aging of the global population, the global economic downturn is still a major trend, and the economic growth will further slow down.
The world has experienced a very long period of peace after World War II, which is the gospel of our mankind. But at the same time, long-term peace has also brought structural distortions. As the rules of the game remain unchanged for a long time, many problems have arisen. The most obvious problem is that the income gap among residents is widening. A few people have more and more global wealth. These problems have further slowed global economic growth.
For China, it is still the country with the strongest economic growth, but we also face the aging population and some structural problems. This is why we have been emphasizing that we should promote the structural reform of the supply side, and through reform, opening up and innovation, we can form a new pattern of Chinas economic development.
The economic growth rate will still decline, but the quality of economic growth will not be denied. The era of high growth of 10% in the past is over. We should look at the slowdown of economic growth with a peaceful mind.
After the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, in fact, we have been diluting the data of GDP. Especially in the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we clearly put forward the development idea from high growth to high-quality development. In the 14th five-year plan, we also put forward the goal that the per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, rather than specific number suggestions. It can be seen that what we are pursuing is a relative rather than an absolute ranking.
Interface news: under the background of increasingly open capital market, the linkage between A-share and international market is increasing. How to prevent the challenge of increasing input risk after opening up?
Li Xunlei: I think risks and problems always exist. If we do not open up at any stage, there will be risks. Opening up also has risks. Therefore, first of all, risk prevention is the first priority, but risk prevention is not equal to blocking, and dredging is also very important.
On the one hand, the A-share market is still very attractive to foreign investors. One of the reasons is that Chinas economy has performed very well in the world. In the midst of the epidemic, Chinas GDP has still achieved positive growth, which can be said to be one of the best.
The second reason is that the yield of Chinas financial assets is relatively high. For example, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is about 3%. Under the background of zero interest rate or even negative interest rate in major economies of the world, the yield of Chinas financial assets is still very attractive. Therefore, the economy is good and the price of assets is attractive, which is favorable for the entry of foreign capital.
But at the same time, there are still risks. For foreign investors, they also have concerns. For example, in terms of free convertibility under the capital account, we are still not in line with the world. If we can further relax this aspect, it will be conducive to promoting the internationalization of RMB. Because only when the international status of RMB in the world is improved, as an international currency, its reserve function and payment function can be further strengthened, which is also conducive to improving Chinas global position and the pricing power of global assets.
Under the current trend of anti sinicization and de sinicization, we need to integrate with the whole world, and our capital market should be more bold to take responsibility in this process.
About the next decade
Interface news: Recently, it has been reported that the CSRC is planning to reform the basic system and intends to merge the main board of Shenzhen stock exchange with the small and medium-sized board. What aspects do you think still need to be improved from the multi-level capital market?
Li Xunlei: first of all, I think it is very important to improve the basic system. The A-share market has experienced 30 years of development, and the road we have gone through is not long. However, the progress made may be achieved only after several hundred years of history. It can be said that we have come from behind.
But it is also because Chinas capital market was not born for a long time, so there are still many problems, such as the plate segmentation mentioned above. I think we should put it together. In fact, there are two major markets in the United States, one is the New York Stock Exchange and the other is NASDAQ. We have the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. In the Shanghai Stock Exchange, there are the main board, the science and technology innovation board, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange also has the main board, the small and medium-sized board and the growth enterprise market. In the future, if the small and medium-sized board is merged with the main board, I think it is also possible.
At the same time, we also have the B-share market, which has basically lost its original function, so how to solve the B-share as a historical problem? I think it should also be taken into consideration.
In 2006, we promoted the reform of non tradable shares, which was a huge step forward. Now we are promoting the registration system, which is a reform of the era significance.
In this process, we should be more fully prepared for the internal and external circulation of the capital market.
In terms of internal circulation, I think the delisting system should be further improved. Under the background of registration system, there must be a large number of companies ready to go public, and the market will usher in a new round of expansion. If the delisting system can not be strictly implemented, the size of the company will become larger and larger. After more than 200 years in the U.S. stock market, the number of listed companies is only more than 5000. Now we have more than 4000, so it is very important to survive the fittest.
Second, we should do a good job in the external circulation, let more foreign institutional investors participate in our multi-level capital market, and lower the entry threshold.
At present, the proportion of foreign investment in our country is too small, especially compared with other emerging markets. Our foreign capital accounts for about 4% of the current market value, while in the Korean or Indian markets, the proportion of foreign capital is basically about 30%. Therefore, we should increase the proportion of foreign capital, so as to increase our ability of external circulation.
In addition, it can increase the proportion of foreign listed companies in our A-share market and increase inclusiveness. As a global market, there are many overseas listed companies in other major economies such as the United States. Can we also attract more foreign enterprises to list on a shares?
I think these things will certainly be done in the future, but it is better to do them later than to do them early. Early implementation can force the opening and reform of the domestic capital market to promote the internationalization of RMB.
However, the development of capital market is inseparable from the development of Chinas economic fundamentals, economic structure and economic pattern, which are closely related to each other. We must consider the reform and opening up and innovation of the whole country, and talk about how Chinas capital market should do from the big background. The development of Chinas capital market also needs the coordination of the whole macro environment and macro system. For example, financial reform and the internationalization of RMB will affect the openness of capital market.
So this is a difficult point. Why can the capital markets of overseas emerging economies be so open, while our markets are still relatively low after 30 years of development? The reason is that our exchange rate policy and capital account are not open enough. At the same time, can the marketization degree of our capital market participating institutions be further improved? At present, securities companies are basically state-owned. Can private securities companies become stronger and bigger and bring more vitality to the market? Can overseas financial institutions and investment banks play a certain role in stimulating and competing with domestic enterprises? I think all these need to be coordinated in all aspects.
Generally speaking, I am still very optimistic about Chinas capital market. At present, the proportion of financial assets allocated by Chinese residents is still very low, which means that in the future, the proportion of Chinese households allocation of financial products will rise sharply, which requires a greater development space for our capital market.
Source: interface news Author: Ma Xiaotian, editor in charge: Wang Xiaowu_ NF