Hangzhou house prices, hit hard?

category:Finance
 Hangzhou house prices, hit hard?


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Hangzhous house price used to be the highest in China. Yes, it was the highest in China. That year was 2010. According to the 2010 China city house price list, Hangzhous house price was at the top of the list, and Beijing was the second runner up. As for the booming Shenzhen, it was only the sixth, behind Wenzhou and Sanya.

A few years later, Hangzhous housing prices experienced deep regulation and fell into a slump. It was not until 2016 that the housing prices rose.

Now, what is Hangzhous property market experiencing? We can start with ants. Will everything be a little different? The suspension of ants listing has an impact on Hangzhous property market: it is reported that the employees of ants have cancelled the subscription of luxury cars and luxury houses, and the house price in Hangzhou has been reduced by 15% overnight. Of course, the down regulation here should be local.

However, the deep information revealed by the suspension of the listing of ants may be the place with the deepest impact on Hangzhou property market.

What is the driving force of Hangzhous housing price boom?

Hangzhou now has an annual GDP of more than 1 trillion yuan, which is often praised as a first tier city or quasi first tier city by various forces. In fact, Hangzhou also has a champion title, that is, it has been the champion of land sales revenue for many years. In 2019, the total land sales in China totaled 4.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.33%, setting a new record. Among them, the land sales revenue of some cities exceeded 200 billion yuan, and Hangzhou ranked first, reaching 283.6 billion yuan.

As for Shenzhen, the land sales revenue of Shenzhen was only over 60 billion yuan last year, which did not match the size of the city.

On the one hand, we say that continuous large-scale land sales and increasing land supply will help to curb housing prices. But this law seems to have failed in Hangzhou. With the continuous increase of land supply in Hangzhou, the soaring house prices in Hangzhou will rank fifth in China after Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing and Xiamen with the price of 25979 yuan / m2 in 2019.

The city is not yet on the front line, but the housing price is on the line. This is Hangzhou.

What is the driving force of Hangzhous housing price boom? Four key words: demolition, infrastructure construction, population, industry.

From 2016 to 2020, dozens of villages in the city will be demolished every year in Hangzhou. The relocated households get real gold and silver, the developers get the land, and the government is also the beneficiary. Demolition households with a large amount of money swept through the property market, which is one of the main purchasing power of Hangzhou property market.

After the G20 summit in 2016, Hangzhou began to speed up the construction of subway, intercity and Airport Express lines. These all need money. Where does the money come from? Land sales are an important source, so it is a fixed direction to continuously release the favorable property market in Hangzhou.

Hangzhou is a well-known historical and cultural city. In addition, its economic development has been good in recent years. If the entry threshold is lowered a little, many people will come to Hangzhou. As a matter of fact, the population of Hangzhou exceeded 10 million last year, and the number of permanent residents increased even more than that of Shenzhen.

Hangzhous industrial structure is indeed reasonable and relatively resistant to pressure. In the first three quarters of 2020, Hangzhous GDP will reach 1156.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%. The key is the added value of core industries of digital economy reached 295.2 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5%, 1 percentage point higher than the first half of the year, accounting for 25.5% of GDP..

For the 2022 Asian Games, Hangzhou is making every effort to change the citys appearance and speed up infrastructure construction, which is also the normal path of many cities. To show the best image of the city to the world, everyone has a bright face. However, a large number of real estate speculators have been killed. It seems that Hangzhous housing prices will return to the peak of 10 years ago.

In the first half of 2020, there are five ten thousand people shaking in Hangzhou property market. At the beginning of July, Hangzhou issued a new policy on the property market, limiting the purchase of high-level talents for five years. The proportion of new houses below 35000 yuan / m2 for families without houses has been increased to 50%, and the identification of families without houses is more strict. This has not extinguished the fire of speculation.

Under the regulation and control, the month on month rise of Hangzhou property market has been basically contained.

On November 16, data from the website of the National Bureau of statistics showed that the rise in the sales price of commercial residential buildings fell steadily in October. Among them, Hangzhou new commercial housing prices in October month on month zero growth; second-hand housing prices rose 0.3% month on month.

Hangzhous property market is undergoing a high consolidation. Interestingly, some citizens left a message in the online Hall of Hangzhou housing security and Real Estate Administration Bureau on October 23, asking for safeguarding the rights of citizens to increase the value of assets, and even put forward the operation direction of limiting land supply and continuing to lower the threshold of settlement.

So, how will Hangzhous property market go in the future?

There are many factors that affect Hangzhous property market, but the most important factors that can be coordinated at the urban level should be three: land supply, regulatory policies, and industrial development. The citys government has the final say that interest rates and down payment are not the factors.

In terms of land supply, Hangzhou did not intend to stop, and will continue to defend the title of land sales champion: in the first three quarters of this year, the total transaction amount of residential land in 351 cities in China exceeded 4 trillion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 10% year-on-year. Among them, Hangzhou ranks first, and the transfer fee for residential land is close to 200 billion yuan.

As long as this supply is maintained, the most flustered is the fried tenants.

Then there is the regulation policy. On September 4, Hangzhou launched a heavy blow to control the property market. The direction of regulation and control is to reduce the leverage and repel the unqualified speculators. Moreover, Hangzhou has already had more than 100 double limit (limit house price, competitive land price) plots, these plots set the price of new house sales in the future on the date of listing.

This is equivalent to the Hangzhou property market on the tight hoop curse, the freedom of speculation, comfort greatly reduced. Fall, short-term can not see, but rise, the basic also no play.

These are still the conventional policies that can be seen in every city. The difference in Hangzhou is that there are Internet giants stationed. In the past, speculators followed the degree and subway, but now more and more people follow Alibaba and ants. Even some intermediaries have called out the slogan if you cant be an ants employee, youll be ants neighbor, stimulating the rise of house prices.

From the current situation, according to the new rules of the game: the replenishment of capital, the limited source of customers and the decline of the loan line of a single customer are all confirmed. If there is no big variable in ants future, at least the decline in performance is a big probability event. This will affect the income of ant employees, and then transmit pressure to the real estate market.

Antitrust will bring variables

Whats more, its not the ants business.

On November 6, the State Administration of market supervision, the central network information office, and the State Administration of Taxation invited 27 representative Internet platforms (including Alibaba, Tencent, Jingdong, Baidu, byte skipping, pinduoduo, meituan, Weibo, Ctrip, Didi, etc.) to hold an administrative guidance meeting on standardizing online economic order; on November 10, the State Administration of Market Supervision issued the on platform economy to the public Antitrust guidelines in the field (Draft).

Alibaba in Hangzhou is obviously one of the main targets of anti-monopoly. How this wave of anti-monopoly will profoundly affect the development of Internet platform still needs to be observed.

In the history of the United States, when antitrust was at its worst, some giants were split into several companies, such as standard oil and Morgan group. Now some people speculate that the possibility of splitting Facebook is very high.. Anti monopoly in the United States does give innovative small and medium-sized enterprises certain growth opportunities, and after each anti-monopoly, there is often a wave of innovation.

See here, is not there a lot of people in the heart thump. In contrast, stir fry a room blood loss appearance, really is not a matter, belongs to a piece of cake.

According to the financial report of Alibaba group, in the second quarter of fiscal year 2021 up to September 30, 2020, the companys revenue reached 155.059 billion yuan (about 22.838 billion U.S. dollars), a year-on-year increase of 30%; the net profit attributable to common shareholders was 28.769 billion yuan (about 4.237 billion dollars), down 60% year-on-year.

Alibaba Group shares fell after Thursdays earnings report. Ma Yun and Cai Chongxin have been reducing their holdings: as of July 2, 2020, the shares of Alibaba Group held by Ma Yun fell to 1.043 billion shares from 1.277 billion shares on November 26, 2019. If calculated according to the market value of Alibaba at that time, Ma Yun cashed in as much as 43 billion yuan, and Cai Chongxin, Alibabas number two figure, also reduced his holdings during this period. Its not far from the Asian Games. Lets take a look at the last wave of Hangzhous house prices. Hangzhous house prices rise like crazy Shenzhen, and when they fall (2011-2015), they look like Hainan and Ordos. Dear tenants, the wind is high and the waves are strong. This year is 2020. Source: Kung Fu finance editor: Chen Hequn_ NB12679

Alibaba Group shares fell after Thursdays earnings report.

Ma Yun and Cai Chongxin have been reducing their holdings: as of July 2, 2020, the shares of Alibaba Group held by Ma Yun fell to 1.043 billion shares from 1.277 billion shares on November 26, 2019. If calculated according to the market value of Alibaba at that time, Ma Yun cashed in as much as 43 billion yuan, and Cai Chongxin, Alibabas number two figure, also reduced his holdings during this period.

Dear tenants, the wind is high and the waves are strong. This year is 2020.