Broken egg or broken shell? I love my family and deny that the eggshell has risen by more than 230percent on the 2nd day

 Broken egg or broken shell? I love my family and deny that the eggshell has risen by more than 230percent on the 2nd day

Eggshell apartment was very active today, with a turnover of 732 million US dollars, compared with 2.33 million US dollars and 144 million US dollars in the previous two days. Since this years listing, the companys share price has fallen all the way. Before yesterdays rebound, the share price dropped by nearly 90%.

According to media reports, eggshell apartment shares soared, the biggest reason is that it may be acquired by other companies, one of the possible next home is I love my family. The media confirmed that I love my family. The relevant person in charge denied the news. As for whether the negotiation is in progress, the person in charge also gave a denial reply, saying nothing. After the stock price limit of the day before yesterday, I love my family to open high and low yesterday, up 1.43% by the end of the day.

The above denial did not affect the carnival of eggshell apartment in the secondary market, and the stock price rose sharply before the market, reaching the maximum of 40%. Among these factors, the companys stock price has fallen too much and rebounded, and the rumor of receiving the offer is equivalent to giving the stock price a chance to rebound.

Another reason for the sharp rise in stock prices is that the eggshell event is more likely to be properly handled. Some investors believe that although the news that I love my familys bid is denied, a proper solution will eventually be found. After all, this is not a business problem for a single company, but a social problem involving hundreds of thousands of ordinary tenants (the number of apartments operated by eggshell in 2019 is 438300).

According to media reports, previously invited by relevant departments in Beijing, eggshell had contacted with operators such as free and Xiangyu (I love my familys long-term rental apartment brand) to discuss cooperation and acquisition, but failed in the end.

The eggshell model is already in danger

On January 17, 2020, eggshell apartment was listed on NYSE, becoming the first China capital stock to land on NYSE in 2020, with a total market value of about US $2.74 billion. Founded in 2015, the companys products cover shared apartments, whole rental apartments, etc. at present, it has entered 13 cities such as Beijing, Hangzhou and Chengdu.

It is worth noting that, while continuing to expand, eggshell apartments with high operating costs have been in a loss situation for a long time. Under the impact of the epidemic, eggshell apartment is in a dilemma of low occupancy rate and high default rate. The high operating cost and rent cost gradually make eggshell apartments capital chain tense and operation difficult.

Since November, eggshell apartments have been in constant turmoil, and a large number of owners, tenants and suppliers have concentrated on safeguarding their rights in the Beijing market. Rumors of debt, bankruptcy, and running away have been continuously fermented. Eggshell apartment said on its official microblog on November 14 that these were just radical actions taken by the partners due to commercial disputes, and on the 16th responded that we are not bankrupt and will not run away..

Under the large-scale expansion of high price housing and high salary digging, the income of eggshell apartment has been increasing year by year, but it has also been in the loss and expanded year by year. From 2017 to 2019, eggshell apartments achieved revenue of 657 million yuan, 2.675 billion yuan and 7.129 billion yuan respectively, but the losses in corresponding years were as high as 272 million yuan, 1.366 billion yuan and 3.435 billion yuan. In the first quarter of this year, the company had a net loss of 1.234 billion yuan, which was more than 50% larger than that of 816 million yuan in the same period of last year, close to the full year loss of 2018.

The rent prepaid by tenants and the prepayment from financial institutions are the two major supports for the rapid rise of eggshell model. The prepayment from financial institutions is also an important reason for eggshells dilemma. There was a risk in the prospectus of eggshell listing: we may face challenges in cooperating with financial institutions to provide rent financing. With eggshell falling into cashing dilemma, its core rental loan business also faces risks.

A simple analysis of the operation mode of eggshell apartment, eggshell landlord tenant financial institution forms a closed loop, which is developing very fast, but also faces greater risks. As the core of the closed-loop operation, eggshell apartment becomes the weakest link. The impact of the epidemic makes it difficult to cash the eggshell, and the closed-loop will be broken.

The closed-loop operation is broken, and the tenants who are faced with rent back and bear rent loan become the biggest victims. In addition, the tenants also have the risk of credit reference records being damaged. After negotiations between relevant parties, Weizhong bank, which is involved in rent loan, said that it would provide credit reference protection to all Shenzhen eggshell tenants before March 31, 2021, and there would be no credit reference record for overdue repayment within this period. But many tenants said it did not solve the actual problem of repaying the loan.

Local governments issue policies to control the risk of long-term rental apartments

Senior practitioners said that it is still difficult to achieve long-term and stable profits for the operation of long-term rental apartments based on the rent-sale ratio and capital cost of current hot cities.

Since 2020, the outbreak of the new crown epidemic has intensified the overall risk of the housing rental business industry, which has brought further impact to the enterprises that had difficulties in operation and tight capital chain. Due to the decline of rental rate and the rise of customer default rate, housing rental enterprises have encountered financial difficulties. According to the statistics of industry organizations, more than 30 parents have closed down in the year. I love my family, and Im also shrinking its long-term apartment business.

Since the beginning of last year, my family has reduced the scale of its long-term rental apartment brand from 305000 units to 253000 units in the first half of last year through the clearance of vacant rooms. Also affected by the epidemic situation, the performance of my love family is not so good. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 6.751 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.27%; the net profit of parent company was 244 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.93%; the operating cash flow was 1.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.93%.

During the continuous fermentation of eggshell apartment incident, some local governments have successively issued policies for long-term rental apartments, including Chengdu, Xian, Chongqing and other cities, requiring the establishment of a unique housing rental fund supervision account.

On November 17, Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued the urgent notice on effectively standardizing the operation behavior of housing rental enterprises. The housing rental enterprises should not raise the rental price, increase the risk of enterprise capital fracture, and infringe the legitimate rights and interests of house owners and lessees by means of high input and low output and long-term receipt and short payment In order to expand the market by the way of long-term collection and short payment, the operation risk and legal risk of fund chain breaking are caused.

New trends of dragon tiger list

Eggshell apartment up astonishing, A-share super large single capital inflow also has a trend. According to the statistics of data bank of securities times, excluding new shares, institutional seats appeared on the list of 17 stocks on November 18, with a total net sales of 418 million yuan, the sixth consecutive day of net sales. Individual stocks, net buy 5, net sell 12.

In terms of performance, there are 2 companies that announce the performance forecast in 2020 among the net individual stocks purchased by institutions, and there is 1 pre profit in terms of the type of performance forecast. In terms of the median increase in net profit, Shengxin lithium energy Co., Ltd. has the highest net profit growth rate. It is estimated that the median net profit will be 37.5 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 163.3%.

Among the stocks sold by institutions, Changan Motor Co., Ltd. has the largest net sales amount, which has been listed on the dragon and tiger list due to the deviation value of daily increase of 10.34%. There are two institutional seats in the top five business departments, namely, the second and the fourth, with a total net sales of 168.5731 million yuan. At the same time, Shenzhen Stock connect special seats were also listed, with a net sales of 114 million yuan and sales department seats of 434 million yuan in total. In terms of capital flow, the stock had a net inflow of 66.1061 million yuan.

Statement: all information in data bank does not constitute investment advice. Stock market is risky and investment should be cautious. Source: Securities Times editor in charge: Yang Qian_ NF4425

Statement: all information in data bank does not constitute investment advice. Stock market is risky and investment should be cautious.