Muddy water shorting and happy gathering era: nearly 90percent of the revenue data of YY live broadcasting is doubted

category:Finance
 Muddy water shorting and happy gathering era: nearly 90percent of the revenue data of YY live broadcasting is doubted


Affected by the news, the U.S. stock market fell by 26% as of the end of Wednesday, giving up all gains in the past five months.

(YY daily chart, source: tradingview)

Carson block said that after a year of research, it was believed that almost the whole company, including revenue, profits and paying users, was suspected of being fake. This research mainly covers YY live broadcast and overseas bigolive business.

For YY live broadcast, the agency has studied nearly 150 million transactions. It is expected that nearly 90% of revenue reported by YY live broadcast business in the jubilation era will be forged data, and the same problems exist in most of the paid users claimed by YY live broadcast. There are also 80% of bogus components in bigolive revenue data.

Hunshui said that on the live broadcasting platform, most of the props that reward the anchor himself or herself continuously circulates the rewards received before, and even some rewards come from YY server. Take the well-known anchor modern brothers on the platform as an example. Even when they are not live on the platform recently, there are a lot of rewards from YY server. The analysis of reward data from 96 random selection shows that about 97.9% of the sample gift income may be false.

According to Hunshui, through the analysis of nearly 150 million transactions, the data shows that about 50% of the gift reward income of YY live broadcasting comes from YY server, and about 40% of the income comes from external robots or anchor bills. Take Mr. Li, the champion anchor of the year in YY in 2019 as an example, the user who gave him the most rewards in December 2019 (RMB 7 million) was the same as his IMEI.

(source: zer0estv)

In addition to the above two, muddy water also gave a number of cases in the report about fraudulent revenue and server reward received by the anchor after offline.

(source: muddy water study)

Muddy water further said that YY claimed in 2018 that the top five anchors of the platform attracted more than 1.1 billion yuan, but according to the revenue declaration records, these anchors reported a total revenue of about 156 million yuan, which further verified the hypothesis that YYs live broadcasting revenue is only 10% real.

(source: muddy water study)

Muddy water said that for the overseas version of bigolive, there are also the problems mentioned above, such as false operation data and revenue swiping.

Another concern is that Baidu just announced on Tuesday that it will pay $3.6 billion in cash to buy the domestic video entertainment service of happy gathering times. The delivery is expected to be completed in the first half of 2021. Affected by this, Baidus share price also closed down more than 1% from a 2% rise in the day.

Source of this article: Chen Hequn, editor in charge of CFA_ NB12679