It is a long-standing problem in Tianjin real estate market that inventory pressure is high and it is difficult to remove. From 2015 to 2016, the number of new housing transactions in Tianjin increased sharply due to the loosening of the restricted purchase policy and the stimulation of Beijings overflow demand for real estate. Since 2018, Tianjins new housing market has been oversupplied due to tightening policies and large-scale land transfer in the early stage.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, as of October, the cumulative growth rate of commercial housing sales in Tianjin was negative for nine consecutive months.
Research on Kerry Real Estate points out that at present, there is still imbalance between supply and demand in the primary and secondary markets in Tianjin, which leads to homogenization of projects on sale in various sectors. Under the pressure of decontamination, vicious competition may occur, such as price for quantity, channel coercion and so on.
The purchase restriction policy focused recently is based on the implementation opinions on further deepening the regulation and control of the real estate market in our city issued by the general office of Tianjin Municipal Peoples Government in 2017. The opinion said that the registered residence of the foreign residents in Tianjin should be provided with a tax payment certificate of social security tax for 2 years in the past 3 years, and 1 sets of residential real estate can be purchased in other parts of Tianjin except the Binhai New Area.
This year, affected by the epidemic situation, the downward pressure on Tianjin market increased. On March 2, the portal website of Tianjin Development and Reform Commission released the policy measures of Tianjin supporting key platforms to serve the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (for Trial Implementation), slightly loosening the purchase restriction policy. It is said that in order to promote the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the project of Beijing transfer to Tianjin, which is in line with Tianjins industrial development orientation and settled in Tianjin Binhai Zhongguancun Science and Technology Park and Baodi Beijing Tianjin Zhongguancun Science and Technology City, has been relaxed in terms of settling down and purchasing houses in the policy pilot area.
According to the sales price changes of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in October 2020 issued by the National Bureau of statistics, in October, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in Tianjin decreased by 0.4% month on month. In September, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in Tianjin increased by 0.2% month on month. At the same time, after the gold nine silver ten period, house prices around the country gradually entered a downward cycle. According to the research of Kerry Real estate, if the purchase restriction adjustment is implemented, it will bring certain benefits to the transaction of the new housing market in the short term; but in the long run, as long as the contradiction between the purchasing power of local residents and the housing price is not solved, the downward trend of the market is difficult to fundamentally change. Chen Sheng, executive director of China real estate data research institute, told ifnance that the public should not over interpret the rumor. At present, in the whole market environment, the sales area of commercial housing has returned to the same level of last year, so there is no need to rescue the market. Source: editor in charge of Finance and Economics: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619
According to the research of Kerry Real estate, if the purchase restriction adjustment is implemented, it will bring certain benefits to the transaction of the new housing market in the short term; but in the long run, as long as the contradiction between the purchasing power of local residents and the housing price is not solved, the downward trend of the market is difficult to fundamentally change.