The default of Yongmei has become a butterfly wing, and the credit bond market has dropped sharply. According to Ifind, 53 bonds have been cancelled since November 10, with a total scale of 28.5 billion. Compared with 6.45 billion yuan in the second week of November (November 2-november 6), it has increased by more than three times, and many of the bond issuers involved are local platforms. At the same time of the cancellation of the issuance, the coupon rate of the bonds has also increased. At present, 23 bonds are issued with an interest rate of more than 4%, and two of them even reach 7%.
Delayed issuance is still not full
Today, an issuer said: on November 17, 2020, the issuer and the lead underwriter conducted an offline inquiry on the coupon rate to professional investors. The range of interest rate inquiry for variety 1 of the bonds was 4.00% - 5.00%, and that of variety 2 was 4.30% - 5.30%. According to the inquiry results and the prudent judgment of the issuer and the lead underwriter, it is finally determined that the coupon rate of the first bond is 4.79%, and the second bond will not be issued.
Among the 52 bonds blocked, except for 20 Zhangze Power cp001, 51 were market reasons. From the perspective of the types of cancellation, steel, nonferrous, coal and so on have become the major cancellation households.
Affected by the Yongmei incident, several bonds in Henan Province have been cancelled, including 20 Shanggu 03 issued by Shangqiu ancient city protection and development company, 20 Kaifeng urban transportation mtn001 issued by Kaifeng City operation and investment group, 20 yujiaoyun mtn007 issued by Henan Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd., and 20 issued by Henan Xinhui Construction Investment Co., Ltd New preferential debt.
The fixed income researcher of a fund company in North China said in an interview with reporters from 21 financial circles that the Yongmei incident had a great impact on the market. Although Chengtous faith has not been completely broken, it is no longer the original impregnable. Some cities in the North such as northeast, northwest, southwest, Shandong, Henan and other cities will choose the best; the financial situation is bad, and the industry is cyclical The traditional sex industry is also a wait-and-see industry. In a short period of time, it may be difficult to issue bonds in the market.
Yang yewei, an analyst at Guosheng securities, believes that the credit market risk has increased significantly in the near future after the default of Yongmei, Huachen and other local state-owned enterprises. Due to the inseparable correlation between local state-owned enterprises and local governments, the attitude of local governments determines the development of the situation. However, so far, the markets concern about the willingness of local governments to repay debts has not been significantly alleviated, and even there is a saying that enterprises can be more light loaded after the default of bonds, which further aggravates the concerns about the attitude of local governments.
The situation of credit stratification is more and more obvious
The worry is reflected in all aspects. In addition to the obstacles in the issuance of credit bonds, the situation of credit stratification is becoming more and more obvious. Under the impact of state-owned enterprise belief, the market is more cautious about the sinking of qualification, and the credit risk premium and liquidity premium of weak qualification subjects may be widened.
Yang yewei believes that the above situation is not special. After the default of local state-owned enterprises, the region usually faces significant financing contraction and rising financing costs. After the default of Qinghai Salt Lake, in the first nine months of 2020, Qinghais social finance was only 44.9 billion, while in 2019 it was 127.8 billion, and the new loans decreased from about 35 billion in 2018 to less than 3 billion in 2019, and only 4.4 billion in the first nine months of 2020. In 2020, Qinghai social finance was highly dependent on government bonds, accounting for more than 80% of the total. After the default of Liaoning and Tianjin, financing also contracted significantly. Default not only directly leads to a sharp decrease in bond financing, but also affects the banks willingness to lend and non-standard financing. At the same time, default will lead to the expansion of credit spread, which will lead to the rise of bond financing interest rate. At the same time, it will also lead to high financing costs by pushing up the loan interest rate, which has occurred after the default in Qinghai and Liaoning.
Financing contraction often leads to the slowdown of local economic growth, which leads to the rise of relative debt burden and the rise of leverage ratio. From the experience of Qinghai, Liaoning and Tianjin, the contraction of financing before and after default is accompanied by investment slowdown and economic downturn. At the same time, the asset disposal brought about by default leads to a higher contraction of assets than liabilities, and the asset liability ratio generally rises instead of falling, which in fact can not effectively play the role of reducing leverage. A healthy financial market needs to break the rigid cashing, but it also needs to pay attention to the construction of credit system.
Huang Jianxiang, vice president of Puyi wealth, told reporters in 21 Financial Circles: Yongmei incident has a great impact on the confidence of the bond market, which may have three aspects for the future bond market trend. First, from the perspective of the most upstream institutional investors, in the past, many online Red bonds, such as local government bonds, were rated 3a. Institutional investors were very confident in these bonds. After the occurrence of several bond default events in the past month, institutional investors will be more cautious and resume the trading of bonds they have held. Second, domestic rating agencies will re-examine the rating standards and logic of domestic bonds. From a macro perspective, each default event is essentially a reminder to the market. In the long run, it is good for the market and will promote a more sound rating system. Third, for ordinary investors, investors will pay more attention to the underlying assets when choosing bond funds.