Will 5g mobile phones and package fees be cheaper and cheaper?

 Will 5g mobile phones and package fees be cheaper and cheaper?

With more than 600000 base stations and 160 million 5g connected users, China has the largest 5g network and 5g user group in the world. Shanghais 5g construction scale is at the first level in China and the first camp in the world. By the end of August this year, the number of 5g package users in Shanghai reached 6.17 million, ranking first in China.

The following question is: will the largest 5g network promote China to become the largest, most creative and competitive 5g consumer market in the world?

The answer is yes. In 5g era, Chinas catching up and surpassing will be all-round, not only in technology, ecology and application, but also in the consumer side. 5g consumption will play the most important incremental role in the development of information consumption, and it is also the key to narrow the gap of per capita information consumption between China and foreign developed countries.

5g consumption power, on the one hand, comes from the known quantitative, such as 5g mobile phone and package consumption, on the other hand, unknown variables, 5g pan intelligent terminal consumption and the development of 5g consumption application, bring a very imaginative space.

015g hardware market, colorful spring

Mobile phone is the preferred carrier for most people to access 5g, which makes 5g mobile phone the first target of 5g consumption. At the same time, smart watches, bracelets, VR, smart glasses and even self driving cars and other new 5G terminals will bring more imagination to the 5G hardware consumer market.

5g mobile phones will be widely used next year

After Apples iPhone 12 was officially launched, all the major mobile phone manufacturers in the world have started 5g mode. 5g mobile phone is becoming the main force in 5g consumer market.

Photography / Feng Chengjie

China has the worlds most mature, efficient and largest mobile terminal R & D and manufacturing industry chain, and is also the largest consumer market for 5g mobile phones.

According to the data of China Academy of communications and communications, in September 2020, the domestic market shipped 13.99 million 5g mobile phones, accounting for 60% of the total number of mobile phones shipped in the same period; 26 new 5g models were listed, accounting for 44.8% of the total number of new mobile phones on the market in the same period. In Shanghai, the number is even higher. A salesman of Huaweis flagship store on Nanjing East Road told reporters, of course, 5g is chosen! Most people will buy 5g phones.

Tuyuan / China Academy of communications and communications

In the Chinese market, domestic mobile phone brands are the absolute driving force for 5g consumption, with a market share of more than 92%. At present, Huawei, Xiaomi, oppo and vivo have released 5g mobile phones with almost full price range. Recently, with the hot pre-sale of Huaweis apple new machines, 5g replacement wave is expected to promote the consumption and upgrading of smart phones.

According to the report of China smart phone brand battle global released by Puyin international, the global shipments of 5g smartphones of Chinese brands will reach 159million in 2020, and 346million and 509million in 2021 and 2022 respectively. This figure means that 5g phones will be popularized in an all-round way since 2021. After the storage of 4G terminals is exhausted, most new buyers will be able to purchase new phones 5g will be selected.

For the wearable, VR and other new 5g terminals, they are not new entrants to the market. They have been dormant for a period of time, waiting patiently for the opportunity to become popular overnight.

In Shanghai, more and more VR experience stores have sprung up on the streets, with racing cars, shooting and 4D movies in full bloom. However, this does not mean that Shanghai consumers will immediately accept it. The initiative of 5g consumption will always be in the hands of consumers who rely on experience voting.

In the white paper on VR industry research, research and Analysis Agency IDC predicts that the commercial VR market will continue to grow in the next few years. By 2024, the scale of Chinas commercial VR market will reach 92.18 billion, about 3.8 times that of 2020. Education, retail, manufacturing, construction and service industries will become the main force of VR market.

Picture source / IDC

Wearable devices and smart watches are potential entrances to the massive 5g market.

According to IDCs quarterly tracking report on Chinas wearable device market in the second quarter of 2020, Chinas basic wearable devices (wearable devices that do not support third-party applications) will ship 22.24 million units in the second quarter of 2020, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and that of intelligent wearable devices will be 4.35 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%. From the data, it is not difficult to find that the differences in the definition of intelligent wearable devices still dominate the market, and the wearable market has not entered the 5g era with higher costs, which also affects its potential in the 5g consumer market.

Picture source / IDC

In the future, only a blooming terminal ecology can sustain a broader 5g consumer market, and more types of 5g hardware mean more types of adaptive applications and ecology. 5g hardware is still the cornerstone of 5g consumption.

Traffic consumption is an unavoidable topic in 5g development. Buying a 5g mobile phone and running a 5g package is the basic standard configuration of 5g life. When hundreds of millions of users complete 5g migration and start using 5g package, where is the increase in 5g consumption?

Will the price of 5g package increase? Of course not.

Wen Ku, a spokesman for the Ministry of industry and information technology and director of the Department of information and communications development, said earlier this year that it would continue to accelerate the construction of 5g network, and promote telecom operators to gradually reduce the tariff level of traffic and credit purchase by optimizing package settings, so as to drive 5g consumption.

The Ministry of industry and information technology has made it clear that it will continue to promote the reduction of package traffic charges and thus stimulate the 5g consumer market. At present, the price of 5g packages of Chinas three major telecom operators has temporarily stabilized at more than 100 yuan / month. In the business hall of a telecom operator in Shanghai, the staff definitely told the reporter: the lowest 5g package also needs 129 yuan, there is no cheaper one.

However, the overall 5g tariff still shows a gradual downward trend, and for mature home users, the cost of upgrading 5g package is the lowest, only a few to ten yuan, or even a smooth transition to 5g free of charge.

Fu Liang, a senior Telecom analyst, believes that the current 5g package is still in the transitional period, and operators may introduce a more flexible new price service system in the fourth quarter, including both high-priced 5g packages and low-cost versions, so as to attract more users.

In the future, operators still need to rely on time and huge user base to gradually reduce the cost pressure brought by 5g network investment. However, in the long run, the tariff system of 5g package will not be more expensive than that in 4G era, at least in terms of price. It is worth mentioning that the price distribution of telecom operators is more flexible nationwide, and 5g tariff in some inland areas will decline faster than that in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Trillions market outside the package

How to improve the ARPU value (monthly average income) of each 5g user is the same problem faced by the three major operators. However, there is no room for the basic package and traffic tariff to rise. The non basic package revenue has become the blue ocean of diversified innovation of operators revenue.

At present, telecom operators have several choices within the line of sight, such as 5g message, video RBT and so on. Among them, the video RBT seems to be the upgraded version of RBT more than 10 years ago, and the service has made operators earn a lot of money.

5g message is regarded as 5g form of SMS. After 2015, due to the popularity of wechat and other mobile social tools, SMS was once put into the cold palace. With the rise of industry applications, after 2018, SMS business was booming again, reaching 750 billion in that year alone, and more than nine Chengdu were industry SMS, which greatly strengthened the industrys confidence in the application of 5g messages in the industry.

Du Chengxin, general manager of 5g message operation Department of China Telecom Value-added Service Center, believes that there are three prospects for 5g news in the future: first, it may become the largest AI intelligent application field in China; second, it may become the most convenient intelligent search service platform; third, it may become the most abundant digital and information consumption platform. The three operators have built a transmission scale of 40 billion in 10 years With the development of short message service in the industry, 5g message may bring business opportunities of 100 billion income. In the next decade, after the popularization of terminals and the maturity of AI, it will be a trillion level opportunity for the ecological chain.

Reporter notes: the fourth consumption era will come overnight

In the fourth consumption era written by Japanese writer mitsuzawa, it is clearly divided into different periods for consumption upgrading: first, in the era of consumption, commercial forms began to take shape, and department stores rose in big cities; second, in the era of consumption, the division of labor between the manufacturing, channel and brand ends was clear, and a large number of shopping malls and supermarkets were enclosed; third, in the era of consumption, individuals were taken as the unit, and consumption was service-oriented Fourth, in the era of consumption, consumption is divided into several groups, and consumption returns to rationality (return to nature and high-quality consumption demand), and new channels are emerging.

Undoubtedly, 5g consumption belongs to the fourth consumption era, but when will a new consumption era with consumption returning to rationality and returning to nature come true? How far is a consumption city like Shanghai from the fourth consumption era?

Maybe the opportunity lies in the market increment and unknown possibility of non mobile phone and non package. In the 3G and 4G era, the industry has never successfully predicted the precedent of new killer application. Black horse finally shines in the wind of the times and is fully integrated into daily life. Where is the dark horse of 5g consumption hidden? We dont know.

But it doesnt matter, just as you never know when a baby will have its first baby tooth, or when the autumn leaves turn golden overnight, the change is casual, but it is definitely faster, more sudden and more gratifying than you expected.

Extend reading Huaweis ban on China 5g technology in the U.S. court challenge FCC? Foreign Ministry responded to the big change of Samsung 5g mobile phone chip strategy, competing for 5g customers of joint development department such as xiaomiov. Source: Aiji micro responsible editor: Mao Xinsi_ NBJS11624