According to the Xinjiang press conference on October 26, the total number of people to be tested in Shufu county was 245200. As of 16:00 on October 26, all the tests had been completed. In addition to 26 new positive cases, there were still 5 mixed tubes under further re examination, and the rest were negative. As of 16:00 on October 26, a total of 4.7465 million people had to be tested in Kashgar, and 4.4717 million people had been sampled, and 213.36 million people had been tested. In addition to 26 asymptomatic infections detected in Shufu County, other counties and cities were negative. Kashgar will make every effort to seize the time to ensure the completion of nucleic acid testing for all staff on the 27th.
Why are 138 cases asymptomatic in Xinjiang? Expert: maybe it was discovered earlier
On 24 May, novel coronavirus pneumonia was detected in 1 cases of Shufu County in Kashi County, Xinjiang Province, and 1 cases of 17 year old women were infected. On the evening of October 25, 137 people were positive through nucleic acid testing of the close contacts and close contacts of the asymptomatic infected person. All of them were associated with the three village factory where the parents of the first case were located. According to expert diagnosis, they were asymptomatic.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia is also known as the new age of pneumonia. Chen Xi, an associate professor of public health at Yale University, told the Global Times reporter 26 days that the new crown pneumonia had several days of incubation. If the infected persons in Kashi area were found earlier, they might show no symptoms, but they did not mean that those infected persons would not turn into a confirmed case in the future. On the other hand, considering that the infection occurs in factories and the majority of workers are young people, the probability of asymptomatic is higher, which is found in clinical practice in many parts of the world.
At the same time, some analyses have speculated whether the increase in the proportion of asymptomatic infections is related to the variation of the new coronavirus. Chen Xi believes that some of the new coronaviruses found in Asia are different from those found in North America and South America. From the perspective of Virology, the virus is always more and more adapted to the human body. In order to spread in large quantities, it is attached to the human body, and its toxicity will gradually decrease, and it will be more and more difficult to be detected. Therefore, the proportion of asymptomatic will also increase. This possibility exists. But Wang Guangfa believes that the possibility of virus mutation is very small.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia was detected in 831 people in the garment factory of the first case of pneumonia in the afternoon of 24 days, the results showed negative. Brother and his brother were negative for the nucleic acid test, while the remaining 137 asymptomatic patients were associated with the three village factory of the first case of their parents, the Xinjiang health and Health Committee informed. At present, the source of this outbreak is not clear. Wang GuiQiang, a member of the expert group of the National Health Commission and director of the infectious diseases department of the first hospital of Peking University, analyzed in an interview with the media that the 17-year-old womans parents brought the virus back from the factory, which was more likely to infect her daughter. However, the possibility of the 17-year-old woman carrying the virus to her parents after infection was not ruled out.
In order to clarify the route of infection, Chen Xi told the global times that antibody testing should be increased in a targeted way. Chen Xi said that it is appropriate to add a representative antibody sampling test to small areas that do not know when community transmission will start and at the same time suspect that there is a certain amount of infection, such as Kashgar.
Wang Guangfa believes that this round of outbreak in Xinjiang is very worthy of attention and should not be taken lightly. Based on past experience, if there are asymptomatic cases without a source, be very careful. He said that the range of human activity is limited, and an average of three people can be infected by a new crown patient. According to this data, the number of 138 cases may mean that there have been two generations, three generations or even more infectious cases, and the emergence of super communicators cannot be ruled out.
We must focus on the worst and weave the prevention and control net more intensively. Wang Guangfa reminded that, in particular, epidemiological investigation must be done in-depth and meticulous. Although there are some objective difficulties, it is necessary to trace the source of the first case of infection as far as possible, and to find out whether the source of this round of transmission is people or cold chain food and other goods.
After the outbreak of this round of epidemic, the epidemic prevention and control headquarters of Kashgar region immediately launched the first level response. Four places in Kashgar Prefecture of Xinjiang were upgraded to high-risk areas of epidemic situation. It is expected that the nucleic acid detection of all staff in Kashgar area will be completed by October 27. In addition, the National Health Commission has sent a working group to Kashgar to guide the local epidemic prevention and control work.
On July 15 this year, there was a local outbreak in Xinjiang. By September 7, all confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections in Xinjiang (including the XPCC) were cleared. A total of 826 confirmed cases were cured and discharged. 238 asymptomatic infections were relieved of medical observation, with a total of 1064 cases.
Where were all the people who left Kashgar 14 days before the first case appeared?
Kashgar, as the most western border city in China, belongs to Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. There are 1 county-level cities, 10 counties and 1 Autonomous County under the jurisdiction of the whole region. Shufu county is a county under the jurisdiction of Kashgar City, with a total population of 283000 people. It is a multi-ethnic community mainly composed of 13 ethnic groups including Han, Kirgiz and Tajik.
Affected by the epidemic situation, since 24:00 on October 25, the epidemic risk levels of Zhanmin Township, tokzak Town, wukusak town and saybage township of Shufu County in Kashgar region were rated as high risk, other towns and townships in Shufu county were rated as medium risk, and other counties and cities were rated as low risk.
At present, Kashgar has rapidly launched the first level emergency response. So where did all the people who left Kashgar go from the first 14 days of Kashgar case No. 1 on October 24?
According to the data from the Propaganda Department of Kashgar Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China, during the national day of the Mid Autumn Festival, Kashgar City received 744200 tourists, realizing tourism revenue of 23.5534 million yuan. Kashgar ancient city scenic spot has received 89000 tourists in total, with 15000 tourists on October 4, the highest single day tourist reception record. During the National Day period, Kashgar xiangfeiyuan scenic spot received 34000 tourists.
Health Times reporter inquired about the migration map and found that from October 10 to October 24, the top three hot places to move out of Kashgar were Urumqi, Haidong city of Qinghai Province and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, respectively, with the proportion of emigrant population of more than 70%. In addition to Xinjiang, Qinghai and Gansu, only Xian, Shaanxi Province, was ranked among the top 10 hot emigrants.
October 10, 360 Kashgar area moved out of the map
According to Gu Yingsu, at present, the aviation, railway, highway and other traffic roads in Kashgar are all normal and smooth. The personnel from other places in Kashgar are not isolated and do not need to carry nucleic acid report. They only need to implement the measures of wearing masks, measuring body temperature and scanning health codes. Foreign tourists who need to leave Kashgar can leave Kashgar normally only by holding a valid negative nucleic acid test report within seven days.
On October 25, the Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and prevention reminded citizens not to travel or travel to Kashgar, Xinjiang, if it is not necessary in the near future. Citizens who have travel history in Kashgar in recent 14 days should pay attention to their own health monitoring. In case of fever, dry cough and other symptoms, they should wear medical masks to go to the nearest fever clinic, and take the initiative to inform doctors of travel history and contact history, so as to facilitate timely investigation. For friends from Kashgar, Xinjiang who come to Beijing for treatment, please take the initiative to inform doctors of their residence and contact history, especially whether there is a travel history of Shufu County in Kashgar.
Autumn, winter and spring is the season of high incidence of respiratory infectious diseases, and the risk of new crown epidemic is increasing. Please continue to maintain a high awareness of prevention and control, wear masks scientifically, wash hands frequently, ventilate frequently, do not gather, keep a social distance of more than 1 meter from others, pay attention to food hygiene, separate raw and cooked food, and cook thoroughly to ensure food safety.
Former deputy director of China Center for Disease Control and prevention: the epidemic situation may be related to the local temperature drop
Overnight, why novel coronavirus pneumonia asymptomatic infection has increased in Xinjiang Kashi? Yang Gonghuan, former deputy director of the China Center for Disease Control and prevention, and an expert in public health and epidemiology, explained to Red Star News. Yang Gonghuan said that the specific reasons could not be determined because the specific situation of the current tone was not clear. However, Yang Gonghuan pointed out that the epidemic was related to the coming of winter and the decrease of temperature.
Sporadic cases in a small range
Although it is two consecutive days of notification of confirmed cases, it does not mean that the confirmed patients were infected on these two days. Yang Gonghuan told Red Star news that although a case of asymptomatic infection was reported on October 24, and the number of asymptomatic infected cases increased to 137 the next day, these cases were already infected in the early contact with the first case, and were only screened out during the epidemiological investigation of the first patient.
In mid July, novel coronavirus pneumonia cases were diagnosed in Urumqi. According to official notification from Urumqi, by August 2nd, more than 500 local confirmed cases were reported. After August, the local epidemic situation was effectively controlled. After more than two months, why did the epidemic happen again in Xinjiang?
In Yang Gonghuans view, this does not mean that the prevention and control of the epidemic situation in Xinjiang is ineffective, nor can it be concluded that the epidemic will spread in a large area. She explained that compared with the epidemic situation in other countries, the prevention and control of the epidemic situation in China has achieved remarkable results, but it is not surprising that there are dozens or even hundreds of confirmed cases in any place due to the imported foreign prevention and the infectious characteristics of the new coronavirus itself. The two outbreaks are sporadic cases in a small range. In fact, whether it was in the past or now, or even in the future, small fluctuations in the epidemic situation in various places are possible, but there will never be a serious epidemic in Wuhan in January, so the public need not be too panic stricken.
Yang Gonghuan explained that as the temperature drops, the activity of the new coronavirus will increase, which is also the law of disease occurrence. In Yang Gonghuans view, including the Xinjiang Kashgar epidemic, is also related to the local temperature drop.
According to tianshan.com, at present, Kashgar, Xinjiang, has launched a level-1 emergency response. Four townships and towns have been upgraded to high-risk areas. More than 600 nucleic acid detection personnel have been deployed from Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region to provide emergency support to Kashgar. It is expected that the nucleic acid detection of all staff in Kashgar will be completed by October 27.
For the next key points of prevention and control, Yang Gonghuan believes that we should find out whether there are asymptomatic infections in the society as soon as possible, and do a good job in isolating the diagnosed patients and close contacts. As long as isolation measures are in place, the epidemic situation in Kashgar can still be prevented and controlled.