Fund is not optimistic, the fourth quarter volatility increased? There may be long-term opportunities here

 Fund is not optimistic, the fourth quarter volatility increased? There may be long-term opportunities here

Chinese reporters of securities companies have learned from several insurance institutions that insurance institutions as a whole believe that the capital level in the fourth quarter will not be optimistic, and they should be more cautious about valuation in the process of shifting from liquidity and fundamentals driven to Fundamentals driven. However, the main line of the market has not changed. In the process of industrial upgrading and concentration of leading enterprises, market opportunities still exist, focusing on the industries with a rising prosperity.

Year end uncertainty

An insurance company equity investment director told reporters that compared with the first three quarters of this year, the fourth quarter is the most uncertain. On the one hand, the outcome of the US general election has a far-reaching impact on Sino US relations, making a shares face uncertainty; on the other hand, some sectors have accumulated large gains in the first three quarters of this year, and there is a need for internal adjustment. In addition, after Chinas economic recovery, the relevant stimulus policies seek to gradually withdraw, which will also affect the performance of A-share market. In the coming months, the agency will closely monitor the impact of relevant factors on the equity market.

This is also mentioned in the internal investment reports of several large insurance institutions, but the perspective is different.

The internal view of a large insurance asset management organization is that with the increasing leading advantage of Biden election, the domestic and foreign markets begin to reflect Bidens expectation of winning the election. The expectation of China US easing brought by Bidens victory election led to a big rise in the RMB exchange rate, while the offshore RMB exchange rate rose below 6.7.

The agency believes that the market reaction to the US election and Sino US relations has been basically passive for more than two years. However, the overall liquidity of the market is difficult to continue to be significantly loose. Looking forward to the future, it is expected that in the process of industrial upgrading and leading concentration, the opportunity of market excess return will continue to exist. Structurally, it is suggested that the boom recovery and balanced allocation of industries and growth direction.

Some institutions mentioned that the market policies that have attracted much attention recently include the intervention of leverage funds and trend funds, and the implementation of detailed rules for classified supervision of listed companies, On the surface, the tone is negative, but combined with the background of the gem registration system, this is for the smooth promotion of long-term system construction, aimed at maintaining the long-term healthy operation of the market, and implementing differentiated classified supervision on companies is more similar to a kind of foreshadowing for direct delisting. The governments attitude towards long-term reform and the strategic positioning of enhancing the importance of the A-share market have not changed. There is a slight pressure on the capital market policy in the short term, but it is positive in the long term.

Funds are not optimistic

Taikang asset believes that in terms of liquidity, the liquidity of the real economy remains abundant, the social and financial performance continues to improve, the growth rate of M1 rises from 6.9% to 8%, and the enterprise activity is better; in the future, the demand for entity financing is strong, but the policy support may reach the peak stage by stage, and the social financing growth rate can not rule out the possibility of high-level fluctuations.

In terms of capital supply and demand, the market capital demand is still at a historical high, and the fund supply is mainly supported by the issuance of public funds. However, the scale of public fund-raising has declined, and the capital supply of land, port and financing is insufficient, and the index of residents entering the market is still at a high level. On the inter market side, the index of residents capital entering the market has fallen down, but it is still on the high side in history, and the enthusiasm of residents to enter the market is still in.

Looking forward to the later stage, the situation of high financing demand will continue, and some large-scale IPO projects will be issued in succession. In the aspect of capital supply, we mainly track whether the public offering can be maintained or not. In addition, the trend of northbound capital will be the biggest variable affecting the capital supply. The agency believes that the supply and demand of funds is still not optimistic, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the supply of funds.

Pay attention to the industry with higher prosperity

Looking forward to the later stage, the prosperity is expected to spread to manufacturing investment, consumption and aggregation service industries with weak performance in the early stage. In particular, the manufacturing investment cycle is expected to start, and the economic recovery has continuity. Taikang asset said.

Basically, except for some companies affected by the incident, the overall situation is still healthy. The improvement of Pro cyclical industries such as real estate, automobile, materials and construction machinery is in line with or even slightly better than expected, which is an important support for the market.

Taikang asset believes that in view of the overall good recovery of the economy, in the switching process of the market from liquidity and fundamentals to fundamentals driven, it is recommended to have more cautious requirements on valuation, and rebalance the sex price ratio of different targets from the perspective of fundamentals themselves and cost performance.

Hong Kong stocks usher in long-term allocation cost performance?

In the internal research report, a large insurance institution is optimistic about Hong Kong stocks at the current stage, and thinks that the long-term allocation cost performance ratio of Hong Kong stocks has been highlighted. The logic is that, on the one hand, the Hang Seng ah premium index has reached a historical high, which is expected to continue to attract capital inflows from the South; on the other hand, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has been at a relatively low level, the 10-year Treasury bond yield of the United States has reached a record low, the US dollar is weakening, and the RMB is strengthening, which is conducive to attracting overseas funds to invest in Hong Kong stocks.

However, the agency also pointed out that although it has allocation value in the long term, it is cautiously optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market in the near future of the US election.

On the whole, many insurance institutions believe that stocks have a comparative advantage in current asset allocation.

This article is from Guo Chenqi, editor in charge of securities companies in China_ NBJ9931