As soon as the National Day comes back, the whole textile circle is in disorder. Upstream cotton, cotton yarn and other raw materials rose rapidly, one price a day. Xing weiqi, general manager of Shijiazhuang weiboulai Textile Co., Ltd., was worried when interviewed by the 21st century economic report.
Xing Weiqi said that under the soaring raw materials, grey fabrics, fabrics, printing and dyeing, etc. were also stirred up. The textile market is setting off a round of unprecedented vigorous price rising tide.
Due to the rapid rise in the price of textile raw materials, a large number of traders adopt the strategy of high quotation, low transaction, covering the plate and not selling, waiting for the price to sell, and even choose to break the contract; under the expectation of RMB appreciation, the imported yarn is also in the closed plate state without quotation. In order to ensure the production and delivery, a cloth rush has also opened the curtain in the textile industry.
In the past August and September, textile enterprises received a large number of domestic and foreign trade orders. However, the inventory of raw materials was generally at a low level. The steep price of raw materials made the unexpected textile enterprises generally fall into the situation of large profit reduction or even loss. Textile and garment enterprises suffered from the dilemma of executing contracts, negotiating with purchasers, or even breaking the contract.
Zhong Tao, the person in charge of a spinning enterprise in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, told the 21st century economic report that the first and second half of the cotton yarn industry can be described as a double sky of ice and fire. In the first half of the year, the company almost went bankrupt, but now it is too busy to touch the ground. All customers are urging cloth. Every spinning mill, printing and dyeing plant and grey cloth factory are blocked to death, and the whole industry is rushing to buy them.
In order to complete the order, we have to have stock of raw materials. Now we dont have much stock, so we grab cotton yarn, grey cloth and even cotton from upstream.
Xing Weiqi pointed out that the cotton price rise is a main driving force of this round of price rise, and the former has entered the rising range since May.
According to the statistics of the business agency, from April to September 2020, the domestic lint price as a whole maintained an upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 1811 yuan / ton, or 16.31%. However, after entering October, the increase of cotton price accelerated sharply. As of October 19, the average price of domestic lint spot market was 14948 yuan / ton, which was 2020 yuan / ton higher than that on October 1, or 14.62%, and 17.03% higher than that of last year.
This means that the cotton price rise in just ten days after the National Day has exceeded the increase of nearly half a year.
As of October 16, the price of c32s yarn reached 21500 yuan / ton, and the closing price of cy101, the main cotton yarn contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, was 21685 yuan / ton, up 820 yuan within a week. As of October 15, Chinas yarn inventory index closed 7.6 days, down 2 / 3 from 21.5 days a week ago, a new low in nearly three years.
02. Marginal improvement of demand, coming of the coldest winter in 60 years?
Liu Xin, vice president of the Industrial Economics Research Institute of China Textile Industry Federation, told the 21st century economic report that the price rise in the textile industry is highly related to the improvement of demand in the downstream market.
On the one hand, this is related to the good situation of domestic epidemic control and the strong recovery of consumption. At present, it is the time for us to put on the market in autumn and winter, and enterprises want to seize the golden opportunity to issue orders. On the other hand, although the risk of secondary outbreak in the international European and American markets is high, the risk of epidemic in India, Southeast Asia and other regions with textile industry chain is also high, which makes some of the urgently needed sea Foreign Christmas season orders transferred to the domestic in the short term
In particular, since September, many large-scale export-oriented textile enterprises in India have been unable to guarantee normal delivery due to the epidemic situation, while European and American retailers have transferred the orders originally produced in India to China in order to ensure that supplies in the Thanksgiving and Christmas sales seasons will not be affected.
Many textile enterprises have confirmed this, most of them have received purchase orders or inquiries from India.
On the one hand, the consumption situation of the golden week of the national day of the peoples Republic of China restored the confidence of the clothing industry to the double 11 and actively prepared goods, and the demand for home textiles and clothing fabrics such as cotton yarn and spandex soared; on the other hand, there was a general expectation of cold winter in the clothing market this year, which made the winter clothing sales hot. The most obvious fabric, such as cashmere fabric, cashmere fabric, cashmere fabric and so on.
During the National Day holiday just past, the cold air spread from north to south. In a few short days from October 3 to 6 in some parts of central and eastern China, the temperature dropped by more than 12 u2103, giving people the feeling that this winter will be the coldest winter in 60 years, all of which has something to do with Lanina is spreading wildly in the circle of friends.
Sun Linan, deputy general manager of Liaoning Hongfeng printing and dyeing Co., Ltd., told the 21st century economic report that despite the official refutation of this rumor by the Central Meteorological Administration, a large number of textile enterprises have increased their stock, and a large amount of hot money has begun to hype the concept of cold winter. for example, many people are frying cotton flowers, saying that the cotton output and quality in Xinjiang are not particularly good this year, and the goods are relatively limited, as in previous years Its as fast as garlic thats driving up the price of cotton
03. Closed offer: speculation and hoarding
Zhong Tao pointed out that this years rise in cotton prices in Xinjiang is due to the seed cotton rush purchase war. Due to the increasing cotton processing capacity of cotton ginning plants, Xinjiang cotton processing capacity is relatively surplus, but the cotton resources are relatively limited, which leads to many cotton farmers are reluctant to sell seed cotton. In order to ensure the purchase volume this year, the flower rolling plant can only make a bid to increase the price.
Zhong Tao introduced that the cotton textile industry has a serious closed plate does not quote and hoarding phenomenon. On the one hand, due to the rapid rise in prices, a large number of traders generally adopt the strategy of high quotation and low transaction, and refuse to sell while waiting for the price; even because of the price difference, some cotton traders choose to break the contract.
On the other hand, the expectation of RMB appreciation is increasing, and many importers are gambling on the appreciation of RMB. Therefore, the imported yarn is basically in the closed plate state without quotation, resulting in out of stock phenomenon artificially.
It is worth noting that some people in the industry have disclosed that some cotton / cotton yarn traders are quietly selling their stocks of cotton and cotton yarn at the same time of encouraging their peers to close the offer without offering.
Zhong Tao said that under the golden nine silver ten policy, orders at home and abroad have improved greatly, and cotton mills production has accelerated significantly. However, the previous de stocking under the pessimistic expectation of the market has led to the low inventory level of most enterprises. The rise in the price of raw materials has exacerbated the panic psychology of enterprises, and the enterprises that are in time for delivery are even more urgent. In order to ensure production, even if there is still inventory, textile enterprises are also in succession They started to grab and store cloth.
The stock of raw materials in several major cotton mills I have been in contact with has increased from 20 days to 35 days, and that of individual manufacturers has increased to about 45 days. A textile industry person said.
Recently, a number of cloth factories have also reminded customers to arrange orders rationally and not to press goods blindly.
04. Profits are squeezed and textile enterprises are in a dilemma
It is worth noting that for such a round of price rise which affects many categories, most of the enterprises in the textile industry chain, whether upstream or downstream, are not happy. On the contrary, a large number of enterprises are worried and even miserable.
Sun Linan, who is mainly engaged in printing and dyeing, is also distressed by the rise in the price of raw materials. Her enterprise is in the process of shrinking, and may reduce production and control the order receiving. We buy grey cloth before printing and dyeing. Now the prices of yarn and grey cloth are rising sharply. We are facing the problem of rising costs. It is very difficult to transfer all the rising costs to consumers, so we can only transfer them to consumers Part of the transfer, the rest must be borne by our printing and dyeing enterprises. The profit of our industry has always been very thin. The rising price of raw materials has squeezed most of the profits. When the exchange rate is settled, the RMB will appreciate again and nothing will happen. Unlike clothing enterprises, they have higher profits and may be able to withstand it.
Xing Weiqi obviously cant agree with this statement, the price of raw materials in the upstream is too high, but the price activity of fabrics and clothing in the downstream is far less than that in the upstream. The cost of cotton yarn, printing and dyeing has been rising, and the processing plant is very difficult to dry.
He pointed out that although the market has recovered in recent years, the foreign trade market is far from as good as people think. He expects that orders for the whole year will be reduced by 1 / 3 than in previous years.
A textile industry personage pointed out that with the soaring prices of raw materials, cotton gauze and fabrics, the export of textiles and clothing has fallen into a dilemma.
First of all, at present, most foreign brand manufacturers and retailers do not accept the increase in quotation of textile and clothing enterprises and foreign trade companies. The rise of raw materials and gauze is difficult to pass on to the terminal order, and export-oriented enterprises have relatively limited bearing capacity. Therefore, they either abandon the order or digest the rising costs of cotton and cotton yarn alone. No matter which choice they make, the production enterprises are in great pain.
Secondly, in August and September, many enterprises received Thanksgiving and Christmas orders or double 11 domestic sales orders from European and American markets. The price of cotton and cotton gauze rose sharply, which led to significant loss of profits and even losses. These orders are likely to be unable to be implemented. Textile and clothing enterprises are suffering from the problems of contract execution, termination through negotiation with purchasers and breach of contract.
Thirdly, due to the fear of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, export-oriented trade enterprises tend to be cautious in receiving orders.
The soaring prices of raw materials, yarns, fabrics, etc. to a certain extent, inhibit the sustained recovery of foreign trade demand. For example, many people in the textile industry said that customers would not accept the quotation based on the latest cost assessment; on the other hand, traders complained that it was difficult to find a substitute processing enterprise with good supply quality and low price, and that it is difficult to send out a single order has become the norm. Therefore, many export orders with low quotation and low profit have been abandoned.
In sun Linans view, the rebound in the textile market is to a large extent the market clearing effect brought about by the collapse of a large number of enterprises after the epidemic, rather than the complete recovery of domestic and foreign markets. Although the cake is small, but the number of people sharing the cake is also less, but the overall domestic textile industry is still overcapacity.
She stressed that in the past years, it was also the peak season of the industry. From the market point of view, there was no complete recovery of demand or even supply exceeding demand. The price rise of upstream industries did not bring about the recovery of textile industry, but only squeezed the profits of downstream enterprises. Recently, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has been tightened again, and the RMB has been continuously appreciating. The real recovery of textile industry still has a long way to go.