Price increase is one of the hot words this year. Among them, the tire price rise tide has attracted attention recently, and has the momentum of starting a new round of price rise tide.
Recently, Japanese tire manufacturer yukohoma announced that the price of some commercial truck and bus tires in the U.S. market will increase by 6% since December 1. Bridgestones American tire division plans to increase the average price of all Firestone brand radial truck and bus tires sold in the United States by more than 5% and some by more than 8% on November 1.
In terms of domestic market, the trend of tire price rise has started in August, and some enterprises have issued price increase notices for many times, so as to transfer the rubber worry brought by price rise.
On October 19, two price increase notices were issued for triangle tire, which raised the prices of its passenger cars, commercial vehicles and engineering tire products by 3% - 5%. On August 24, triangle tire issued two price increase notices, involving passenger cars, commercial vehicles, engineering tires, etc. In other words, in less than two months, a total of four price increase notices were issued.
In addition, three price increase notices have been issued since October 3. On October 3, the price of forklift tire, engineering tire and other skew series products will be increased; on October 9, the price of all steel tire series products will be increased by 2%; on October 20, the price of forklift tire, engineering tire and other bias tire series will be increased The price of products will be raised.
According to the observation, in August, some domestic tire enterprises began to tentatively increase their prices. In September, a group of enterprises followed up and formed a large-scale price increase trend in the industry from the end of September to the beginning of October. These companies also include listed companies such as Guizhou tire, Linglong tire and Sailun tire.
The reporter of securities times u00b7 e company noticed that, behind the price increase of tire enterprises, most of them mentioned that the important reason was the rise of raw materials, and the industry also mentioned the tire price rising tide caused by rubber price rise in early 2017. Rubber has a high proportion in the cost of tire raw materials. Jiang Yun, tire analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, said: rubber accounts for about half of the raw material cost of all steel tires. Even in the cost of semi steel tires, rubber accounts for about 30%
In an interview with a reporter from stock times u00b7 e company, the staff of Sailun tire, triangle tire and other well-known domestic tire factories also said: the main reason is the rise of raw materials. However, in view of the fluctuation of raw materials, relevant company personnel also told reporters that the company will generally do a good job in cost control through the mode of long contract + spot, and will appropriately increase the reserve of raw materials at low prices.
As for the current round of price increases, an industry person who did not want to be named said: for tire manufacturers, this kind of price increase atmosphere is more conducive to their sales, and relevant manufacturers are willing to use the momentum of raw materials to push up the price.
Rubber rose more than a year in 10 days
As a long silent rubber price, the recent rise is indeed attracting attention, and even the 10 day increase has exceeded the past year. Even Guoxin futures also raised questions about the recent rise of rubber, a pull to a two-year high, rubber this back really?
Take the main contract of rubber futures as an example. After the national day, the price of rubber futures rose from a low of 12580 yuan / ton to the latest 14840 yuan / ton by the end of October 23. In the past three days, the price of rubber futures exceeded the high of 15000 yuan / ton for many times, and the increase reached 18% in 11 trading days (from October 9 to October 23).
Although the increase of 18% is not particularly large, it is also the annual floating range of this variety in recent years. According to the statistics of the business association, the natural rubber price will fluctuate between 10260 yuan / ton and 12300 yuan / ton in 2019, with an annual increase of only 12%, and the annual maximum amplitude is less than 20%.
The international natural rubber price has been fluctuating for 10 years. The futures price dropped from the highest point of 43500 yuan / ton in 2011 to 9350 yuan / ton in 2016. In February 2017, it rebounded rapidly to 23310 yuan / ton, and then remained at around 12000 yuan / ton from the second half of 2017 to the first half of this year. In 2020, novel coronavirus pneumonia affected the price of natural rubber futures in March, and fell to 9300 yuan / ton again. From April this year, natural rubber prices have gradually picked up. After the national day, prices have continuously exceeded 13000 yuan / ton and 14000 yuan / ton. At present, natural rubber futures prices have reached three years.
For this wave of rise, the grower also said: rubber has been declining for many years. Originally, we had a reasonable expectation for the steady recovery of rubber. Otherwise, there is no reason for us to continue to stick to this industry.
In addition, the grower also introduced their recent research on the main rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia. Recently, we conducted a survey on large rubber enterprises in Southeast Asia, including entering local production bases and processing bases. We found that the production situation was not as good as expected, the overall production utilization rate was not high, and even there were factories that did not start operation. But he also said that small team research, not necessarily comprehensive. However, in his view, under the influence of the industrys perennial downturn and multiple factors this year, the production enthusiasm of the whole industry has dropped to a low point.
Three factors contributed to the rise
Although the rising expectation has been existing in recent years, natural rubber has failed several times since 2018. In recent days, many factors, such as bullish weather, led to the rapid rise of natural rubber market demand.
Natural rubber is a tropical crop, which is greatly affected by weather factors. The main production area is in Southeast Asia. According to relevant industry statistics, Southeast Asia rubber production areas account for 90% of the global total production, of which Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia account for nearly 70% of the worlds total rubber production, and Hainan and Yunnan are the main rubber production areas in China.
In terms of climate, the impact of El Nino at the beginning of this year, and recently the influence of La Nina phenomenon. Under abnormal weather, mild drought and epidemic situation in Southeast Asia at the beginning of the year delayed tapping; after August, excessive rainfall affected tapping process. According to the monitoring statistics of the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC), the global rubber production decreased by 8.7% to 7.778 million tons from January to August this year, and the total annual production is expected to decline by 6.8% to 12.901 million tons.
The typhoon in Southeast Asia this year also clearly reflects the abnormal weather. In July, there was no typhoon, but the recent Langka and shadr followed. As a result, under the tide of tire price rise, industry insiders immediately thought of the tire price rising tide of natural rubber all the way to the high level of 23000 yuan / ton due to the influence of El Nino at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017.
In the near future, there are also speculation factors for the reduction of warehouse receipts, and the industry expects that this wave of speculation factors will continue in the near future. Zhuo Chuang information Jiang Yun pointed out to the reporter of securities times u00b7 e company that the recent rise was due to the fund speculation factor supported by the reduction of warehouse receipts, and also predicted that this speculation factor will continue in the near future. Guotai Junan also analyzed that the warehouse receipts in the previous period of this year had been at the level of 200000-250000 tons, which was due in the middle of November. After the old warehouse receipt period was converted into cash, the warehouse receipt volume was less. In addition, this years new warehouse receipt could not be mass produced as mentioned above, which led to the speculation of market bulls, and the short-term logic did not change.
In addition, on the demand side, Chinas automobile industry, as the main pillar industry of the national economy, has seen a rapid rise in production and sales with the promotion of resumption of work and production since March. Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Industry Association, said that commercial vehicles had a strong performance due to the elimination of the third national standard and infrastructure factors.
In the interview, Sailun tire staff told the securities times u00b7 e company reporter: now orders are too busy, all factories are operating at full load. Even because it is really busy, some small orders have not been accepted.
Controversy on the future trend of rubber
In addition to the above reasons for the rise, Dong Jingjun, Director Secretary of Hainan rubber, also told reporters of securities times u00b7 e company that panic expectation and rigid demand in the later period are the important reasons for the rapid rise of rubber in the near future.
He said that the epidemic situation at the beginning of the year directly led to weak demand on the production line. Many Southeast Asian enterprises are self-employed, and they may stop working in the face of low prices. However, the demand for natural rubber in the automotive industry is just the demand. After the demand after the panic is eliminated is confirmed, the industry expectation will also change dramatically On the production of Hainan rubber, Dong Jingjun said: affected by the epidemic situation, there has been a reduction in production, but there has been strict management, there is no phenomenon of abandoning cutting, and production has been advancing orderly.
Jiang Yun also told reporters: continuing to catch up with high is also possible, but there is a bubble in the chase, and the bigger the bubble, the bigger it will be. However, she also said: the issue of reduced delivery is at the heart of the market. In the market has not seen that the tight supply pattern of delivery products has been significantly eased, the bull trend is more difficult to reverse. At the current price, we suggest that we should be more cautious.
Guotai Junan believes that the inflection point of rubber supply and demand may not appear yet, and the strong pattern in the short term and near months may continue. Considering the real demand of the market, the market may reach a peak in December.
However, there is no lack of rubber futures continue to rise. Guojin futures said that from the fundamental point of view, since October, more rainfall in major production areas at home and abroad led to tight raw materials, prices continued to rise, and inventory was insufficient. In addition, rubber demand for gloves in the epidemic situation has been at a high level. In addition, Japans rubber has increased greatly in recent days, and rubber prices may continue to rise. From the technical point of view, there is a breakthrough to continue to rush high demand. However, people from rubber production enterprises are still optimistic about the future market. The enterprise personage who has done research on the first-line production said to the reporter of securities times u00b7 e company: a combination of various factors may lead to a small wave of market in the near future, but how far it can go is not easy to say, and there are some fluctuations. The person even said: looking back at the situation in 2017, I think that the current wave of market can not rule out the possibility of rushing to 20000. Source: Securities Times editor in charge: Guo Chenqi_ NBJ9931
However, there is no lack of rubber futures continue to rise. Guojin futures said that from the fundamental point of view, since October, more rainfall in major production areas at home and abroad led to tight raw materials, prices continued to rise, and inventory was insufficient. In addition, rubber demand for gloves in the epidemic situation has been at a high level. In addition, Japans rubber has increased greatly in recent days, and rubber prices may continue to rise. From the technical point of view, there is a breakthrough to continue to rush high demand.
However, people from rubber production enterprises are still optimistic about the future market. The enterprise personage who has done research on the first-line production said to the reporter of securities times u00b7 e company: a combination of various factors may lead to a small wave of market in the near future, but how far it can go is not easy to say, and there are some fluctuations. The person even said: looking back at the situation in 2017, I think that the current wave of market can not rule out the possibility of rushing to 20000.