Xing weiqi, general manager of Shijiazhuang weiboulai Textile Co., Ltd., was worried when interviewed by the 21st century economic report.
The price has gone too far. In a few days, a ton of cotton yarn has gone up more than 3000 yuan. The price of 60 yarns has jumped from the original 26 thousand to more than 30000, and a ton has increased by 5000. Whats more, the most important thing is that they are out of stock and cant be bought at all.
Xing Weiqi said that under the soaring raw materials, grey fabrics, fabrics, printing and dyeing, etc. were also stirred up. The textile market is setting off a round of unprecedented vigorous price rising tide.
In the past August and September, textile enterprises received a large number of domestic and foreign trade orders. However, the inventory of raw materials was generally at a low level. The steep price of raw materials made the unexpected textile enterprises generally fall into the situation of large profit reduction or even loss. Textile and garment enterprises suffered from the dilemma of executing contracts, negotiating with purchasers, or even breaking the contract.
The price of raw materials is soaring, and the rush for cloth is surging
Zhong Tao, the person in charge of a spinning enterprise in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, told the 21st century economic report that the first and second half of the cotton yarn industry can be regarded as two ice and fire days.
Jiangsu Golden Sun Textile Technology Co., Ltd. also joined the rush buying army. Jiang Dongyu, the companys manager, told the 21st century economic report that orders before the national day would be very hot. The enterprise got a large number of orders. During the national day, they worked overtime to catch up with orders. However, after the national day, the price of raw materials suddenly rose sharply, which made many textile enterprises panic.
In order to complete the order, we must have stock of raw materials. At present, we do not have much stock, so we grab cotton yarn, grey cloth and even cotton from upstream.
According to the statistics of the business agency, from April to September 2020, the domestic lint price as a whole maintained an upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 1811 yuan / ton, or 16.31%. However, after entering October, the increase of cotton price accelerated sharply. As of October 19, the average price of domestic lint spot market was 14948 yuan / ton, which was 2020 yuan / ton higher than that on October 1, or 14.62%, and 17.03% higher than that of last year.
This means that the cotton price rise in just ten days after the National Day has exceeded the increase of nearly half a year.
In terms of yarn, driven by the gold nine silver ten and cotton price, cotton yarn price increased by 3000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival, and the price of 60 high count yarn increased by 4000 yuan / ton.
Marginal improvement in demand, the coldest winter in 60 years?
Liu Xin, vice president of the Industrial Economics Research Institute of China Textile Industry Federation, told the 21st century economic report that the price rise in the textile industry is highly related to the improvement of demand in the downstream market.
On the other hand, although the risk of secondary outbreak in the international European and American markets is high, the risk of epidemic situation in India, Southeast Asia and other regions with textile industry chain is also high, which makes a part of the urgent overseas Christmas orders transferred to China in a short period of time.
In particular, since September, many large-scale export-oriented textile enterprises in India have been unable to guarantee normal delivery due to the epidemic situation, while European and American retailers have transferred the orders originally produced in India to China in order to ensure that supplies in the Thanksgiving and Christmas sales seasons will not be affected.
Many textile enterprises have confirmed this, most of them have received purchase orders or inquiries from India.
However, Jiang Dongyu pointed out that the rise in the domestic market may be the more important reason for the price rise of raw materials. Most of the orders her factory received at the ordering meeting were from the domestic market.
During the National Day holiday just past, the cold air spread from north to south. In a few short days from October 3 to 6 in some parts of central and eastern China, the temperature dropped by more than 12 u2103, giving people the feeling that this winter will be the coldest winter in 60 years, all of which has something to do with Lanina is spreading wildly in the circle of friends.
Sun Linan, deputy general manager of Liaoning Hongfeng printing and dyeing Co., Ltd., told the 21st century economic report that despite the official refutation of this rumor by the Central Meteorological Administration, a large number of textile enterprises have increased their stock, and a large amount of hot money has begun to hype the concept of cold winter. for example, many people are frying cotton flowers, saying that the cotton output and quality in Xinjiang are not particularly good this year, and the goods are relatively limited, like the fried garlic in previous years The same fast fried cotton prices.
No quotation after closing: speculation and hoarding
Zhong Tao pointed out that this years rise in cotton prices in Xinjiang is due to the seed cotton rush purchase war. Due to the increasing cotton processing capacity of cotton ginning plants, Xinjiang cotton processing capacity is relatively surplus, but the cotton resources are relatively limited, which leads to many cotton farmers are reluctant to sell seed cotton. In order to ensure the purchase volume this year, the flower rolling plant can only make a bid to increase the price.
He stressed that there is a lot of speculation and hoarding behind the price rise in the textile industry. Recently, A-share appeared cold winter concept stocks, textile plate continued to rise, cotton, cotton yarn and other futures markets also continued to be active.
Zhong Tao introduced that the cotton textile industry has a serious closed plate does not quote and hoarding phenomenon.
On the one hand, due to the rapid rise in prices, a large number of traders generally adopt the strategy of high quotation and low transaction, and refuse to sell while waiting for the price; even because of the price difference, some cotton traders choose to break the contract.
On the other hand, the expectation of RMB appreciation is increasing, and many importers are gambling on the appreciation of RMB. Therefore, the imported yarn is basically in the closed plate state without quotation, resulting in out of stock phenomenon artificially.
It is worth noting that some people in the industry have disclosed that some cotton / cotton yarn traders are quietly selling their stocks of cotton and cotton yarn at the same time of encouraging their peers to close the offer without offering.
Zhong Tao said that under the golden nine silver ten policy, orders at home and abroad have been greatly improved, and cotton mills production has been significantly accelerated. However, the previous destocking under the pessimistic expectation of the market has led to the low inventory level of most enterprises. The rise in the price of raw materials has intensified the panic psychology of enterprises, and the enterprises in rush for delivery are more urgent. In order to ensure production, even if there is inventory, textile enterprises have opened one after another First grab cloth, store cloth.
The raw material inventory of several major cotton mills I have contacted has increased from 20 days to 35 days, and the raw material inventory of individual manufacturers has increased to about 45 days. A textile industry person said.
Recently, a number of cloth factories have also reminded customers to arrange orders rationally and not to press goods blindly.
Pictures / worms
It is worth noting that for such a round of price rise which affects many categories, most of the enterprises in the textile industry chain, whether upstream or downstream, are not happy. On the contrary, a large number of enterprises are worried and even miserable.
If the price of raw materials goes up again, then the spinning mills will face the embarrassing situation of spinning a ton of yarn will lose 1000 yuan . In the long run, some factories can only close part of their production workshops. Zhong Tao said.
Sun Linan, who is mainly engaged in printing and dyeing, is also distressed by the rise in the price of raw materials. Her company is in the process of shrinking, and may reduce production and control the order receiving. We buy grey cloth before printing and dyeing. Now the prices of yarn and grey cloth are rising sharply. We are facing the problem of rising costs. It is very difficult to transfer all the rising costs to consumers, so we can only transfer them Part of the rest must be borne by our printing and dyeing enterprises. The profit of our industry has always been very thin. The rising price of raw materials has squeezed most of the profits. When the exchange rate is settled, the RMB will appreciate again and nothing will happen. Unlike clothing enterprises, they have higher profits and may still be able to withstand it.
He pointed out that although the market has recovered in recent years, the foreign trade market is far from as good as people think. He expects that orders for the whole year will be reduced by 1 / 3 than in previous years.
First of all, at present, most foreign brand manufacturers and retailers do not accept the increase in quotation of textile and clothing enterprises and foreign trade companies. The rise of raw materials and gauze is difficult to pass on to the terminal order, and export-oriented enterprises have relatively limited bearing capacity. Therefore, they either abandon the order or digest the rising costs of cotton and cotton yarn alone. No matter which choice they make, the production enterprises are in great pain.
Secondly, in August and September, many enterprises received Thanksgiving and Christmas orders or double 11 domestic sales orders from European and American markets. The price of cotton and cotton gauze rose sharply, which led to significant loss of profits and even losses. These orders are likely to be unable to be implemented. Textile and clothing enterprises are suffering from the problems of contract execution, termination through negotiation with purchasers and breach of contract.
Thirdly, due to the fear of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, export-oriented trade enterprises tend to be cautious in receiving orders.
The soaring prices of raw materials, yarns, fabrics, etc. to a certain extent, inhibit the sustained recovery of foreign trade demand. For example, many people in the textile industry said that customers would not accept the quotation based on the latest cost assessment; on the other hand, traders complained that it was difficult to find a substitute processing enterprise with good supply quality and low price, and that it is difficult to send out a single order has become the norm. Therefore, many export orders with low quotation and low profit have been abandoned. In sun Linans view, the rebound in the textile market is to a large extent the market clearing effect brought about by the collapse of a large number of enterprises after the epidemic, rather than the complete recovery of domestic and foreign markets. Although the cake is small, there are fewer people who share the cake, but the overall domestic textile industry is still in a state of overcapacity. She stressed that in the past years, it was also the peak season of the industry. From the market point of view, there was no complete recovery of demand or even supply exceeding demand. The price rise of upstream industries did not bring about the recovery of textile industry, but only squeezed the profits of downstream enterprises. Recently, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has been tightened again, and the RMB has been continuously appreciating. The real recovery of textile industry still has a long way to go. (at the request of the interviewee, the persons name is a pseudonym) extended reading: the merger of two CITICS, the largest shareholder of Beijing Financial Holding Groups CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd., failed. The second-hand houses around the land of 2.7 billion yuan of ant group have increased by one million yuan overnight, which is a potential safety hazard! Tesla recalled nearly 30000 models and modelx. Source: 21st century economic report author: reporter Xia Xutian editor Zhou Shangqi responsible editor The bell chimes_ NF5619
The soaring prices of raw materials, yarns, fabrics, etc. to a certain extent, inhibit the sustained recovery of foreign trade demand. For example, many people in the textile industry said that customers would not accept the quotation based on the latest cost assessment; on the other hand, traders complained that it was difficult to find a substitute processing enterprise with good supply quality and low price, and that it is difficult to send out a single order has become the norm. Therefore, many export orders with low quotation and low profit have been abandoned.
In sun Linans view, the rebound in the textile market is to a large extent the market clearing effect brought about by the collapse of a large number of enterprises after the epidemic, rather than the complete recovery of domestic and foreign markets. Although the cake is small, there are fewer people who share the cake, but the overall domestic textile industry is still in a state of overcapacity.
She stressed that in the past years, it was also the peak season of the industry. From the market point of view, there was no complete recovery of demand or even supply exceeding demand. The price rise of upstream industries did not bring about the recovery of textile industry, but only squeezed the profits of downstream enterprises. Recently, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has been tightened again, and the RMB has been continuously appreciating. The real recovery of textile industry still has a long way to go.
(at the request of the interviewees, the names in the article are pseudonyms)