As soon as the National Day comes back, the whole textile circle is in disorder. Upstream cotton, cotton yarn and other raw materials rose rapidly, one price a day.
The price has gone too far. In a few days, a ton of cotton yarn has gone up more than 3000 yuan. The price of 60 yarns has jumped from the original 26 thousand to more than 30000, and a ton has increased by 5000. Whats more, the most important thing is that they are out of stock and cant be bought at all.
Xing Weiqi said that under the soaring raw materials, grey fabrics, fabrics, printing and dyeing, etc. were also stirred up. The textile market is setting off a round of unprecedented vigorous price rising tide.
Due to the rapid rise in the price of textile raw materials, a large number of traders adopt the strategy of high quotation, low transaction, covering the plate and not selling, waiting for the price to sell, and even choose to break the contract; under the expectation of RMB appreciation, the imported yarn is also in the closed plate state without quotation. In order to ensure the production and delivery, a cloth rush has also opened the curtain in the textile industry.
The price of raw materials is soaring, and the rush for cloth is surging
Zhong Tao, the person in charge of a spinning enterprise in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, told the 21st century economic report that the first and second half of the cotton yarn industry can be regarded as two ice and fire days.
In the first half of the year, the company almost went bankrupt, but now its too busy to get close to the ground. All customers are pushing for cloth. Every spinning factory, printing and dyeing factory and grey cloth factory are blocked to death, and the whole industry is rushing to buy.
Jiangsu Golden Sun Textile Technology Co., Ltd. also joined the rush buying army. Jiang Dongyu, the companys manager, told the 21st century economic report that orders before the national day would be very hot. The enterprise got a large number of orders. During the national day, they worked overtime to catch up with orders. However, after the national day, the price of raw materials suddenly rose sharply, which made many textile enterprises panic.
As a result, we have to grab the stock of cotton and grey cloth everywhere.
According to the statistics of the business agency, from April to September 2020, the domestic lint price as a whole maintained an upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 1811 yuan / ton, or 16.31%. However, after entering October, the increase of cotton price accelerated sharply. As of October 19, the average price of domestic lint spot market was 14948 yuan / ton, which was 2020 yuan / ton higher than that on October 1, or 14.62%, and 17.03% higher than that of last year.
This means that the cotton price rise in just ten days after the National Day has exceeded the increase of nearly half a year.
As of October 16, the price of c32s yarn reached 21500 yuan / ton, and the closing price of cy101, the main cotton yarn contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, was 21685 yuan / ton, up 820 yuan within a week. As of October 15, Chinas yarn inventory index closed 7.6 days, down 2 / 3 from 21.5 days a week ago, a new low in nearly three years.
Marginal improvement in demand, the coldest winter in 60 years?
Liu Xin, vice president of the Industrial Economics Research Institute of China Textile Industry Federation, told the 21st century economic report that the price rise in the textile industry is highly related to the improvement of demand in the downstream market.
On the one hand, this is related to the good situation of domestic epidemic control and the strong recovery of consumption. At present, it is the time for us to put on the market in autumn and winter, and enterprises want to seize the golden opportunity to issue orders;
On the other hand, although the risk of secondary outbreak in the international European and American markets is high, the risk of epidemic situation in India, Southeast Asia and other regions with textile industry chain is also high, which makes a part of the urgent overseas Christmas orders transferred to China in a short period of time.
In particular, since September, many large-scale export-oriented textile enterprises in India have been unable to guarantee normal delivery due to the epidemic situation, while European and American retailers have transferred the orders originally produced in India to China in order to ensure that supplies in the Thanksgiving and Christmas sales seasons will not be affected.
Many textile enterprises have confirmed this, most of them have received purchase orders or inquiries from India.
However, Jiang Dongyu pointed out that the rise in the domestic market may be the more important reason for the price rise of raw materials. Most of the orders her factory received at the ordering meeting were from the domestic market.
On the one hand, the consumption situation of the golden week of the national day of the peoples Republic of China restored the confidence of the clothing industry to the double 11 and actively prepared goods, and the demand for home textiles and clothing fabrics such as cotton yarn and spandex soared; on the other hand, there was a general expectation of cold winter in the clothing market this year, which made the winter clothing sales hot. The most obvious fabric, such as cashmere fabric, cashmere fabric, cashmere fabric and so on.
During the National Day holiday just past, the cold air spread from north to south. In a few short days from October 3 to 6 in some parts of central and eastern China, the temperature dropped by more than 12 u2103, giving people the feeling that this winter will be the coldest winter in 60 years, all of which has something to do with Lanina is spreading wildly in the circle of friends.
Sun Linan, deputy general manager of Liaoning Hongfeng printing and dyeing Co., Ltd., told the 21st century economic report that despite the official refutation of this rumor by the Central Meteorological Administration, a large number of textile enterprises have increased their stock, and a large amount of hot money has begun to hype the concept of cold winter. for example, many people are frying cotton flowers, saying that the cotton output and quality in Xinjiang are not particularly good this year, and the goods are relatively limited, like the fried garlic in previous years The same fast fried cotton prices.
No quotation after closing: speculation and hoarding
He stressed that there is a lot of speculation and hoarding behind the price rise in the textile industry. Recently, A-share appeared cold winter concept stocks, textile plate continued to rise, cotton, cotton yarn and other futures markets also continued to be active.
Zhong Tao introduced that the cotton textile industry has a serious closed plate does not quote and hoarding phenomenon.
It is worth noting that some people in the industry have disclosed that some cotton / cotton yarn traders are quietly selling their stocks of cotton and cotton yarn at the same time of encouraging their peers to close the offer without offering.
Zhong Tao said that under the golden nine silver ten policy, orders at home and abroad have been greatly improved, and cotton mills production has been significantly accelerated. However, the previous destocking under the pessimistic expectation of the market has led to the low inventory level of most enterprises. The rise in the price of raw materials has intensified the panic psychology of enterprises, and the enterprises in rush for delivery are more urgent. In order to ensure production, even if there is inventory, textile enterprises have opened one after another First grab cloth, store cloth.
The raw material inventory of several major cotton mills I have contacted has increased from 20 days to 35 days, and the raw material inventory of individual manufacturers has increased to about 45 days. A textile industry person said.
Recently, a number of cloth factories have also reminded customers to arrange orders rationally and not to press goods blindly.
Profit is squeezed, textile enterprises are in a dilemma
Pictures / worms
It is worth noting that for such a round of price rise which affects many categories, most of the enterprises in the textile industry chain, whether upstream or downstream, are not happy. On the contrary, a large number of enterprises are worried and even miserable.
Sun Linan, who is mainly engaged in printing and dyeing, is also distressed by the rise in the price of raw materials. Her company is in the process of shrinking, and may reduce production and control the order receiving. We buy grey cloth before printing and dyeing. Now the prices of yarn and grey cloth are rising sharply. We are facing the problem of rising costs. It is very difficult to transfer all the rising costs to consumers, so we can only transfer them Part of the rest must be borne by our printing and dyeing enterprises. The profit of our industry has always been very thin. The rising price of raw materials has squeezed most of the profits. When the exchange rate is settled, the RMB will appreciate again and nothing will happen. Unlike clothing enterprises, they have higher profits and may still be able to withstand it.
Xing Weiqi obviously cant agree with this statement, the price of raw materials in the upstream is too high, but the price activity of fabrics and clothing in the downstream is far less than that in the upstream. The cost of cotton yarn, printing and dyeing has been rising, and the processing plant is very difficult to dry.
He pointed out that although the market has recovered in recent years, the foreign trade market is far from as good as people think. He expects that orders for the whole year will be reduced by 1 / 3 than in previous years.
A textile industry personage pointed out that with the soaring prices of raw materials, cotton gauze and fabrics, the export of textiles and clothing has fallen into a dilemma.
First of all, at present, most foreign brand manufacturers and retailers do not accept the increase in quotation of textile and clothing enterprises and foreign trade companies. The rise of raw materials and gauze is difficult to pass on to the terminal order, and export-oriented enterprises have relatively limited bearing capacity. Therefore, they either abandon the order or digest the rising costs of cotton and cotton yarn alone. No matter which choice they make, the production enterprises are in great pain.
Secondly, in August and September, many enterprises received Thanksgiving and Christmas orders or double 11 domestic sales orders from European and American markets. The price of cotton and cotton gauze rose sharply, which led to significant loss of profits and even losses. These orders are likely to be unable to be implemented. Textile and clothing enterprises are suffering from the problems of contract execution, termination through negotiation with purchasers and breach of contract.
Thirdly, due to the fear of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, export-oriented trade enterprises tend to be cautious in receiving orders.
The soaring prices of raw materials, yarns, fabrics, etc. to a certain extent, inhibit the sustained recovery of foreign trade demand. For example, many people in the textile industry said that customers would not accept the quotation based on the latest cost assessment; on the other hand, traders complained that it was difficult to find a substitute processing enterprise with good supply quality and low price, and that it is difficult to send out a single order has become the norm. Therefore, many export orders with low quotation and low profit have been abandoned.
In sun Linans view, the rebound in the textile market is to a large extent the market clearing effect brought about by the collapse of a large number of enterprises after the epidemic, rather than the complete recovery of domestic and foreign markets. Although the cake is small, there are fewer people who share the cake, but the overall domestic textile industry is still in a state of overcapacity.
(at the request of the interviewees, the names in the article are pseudonyms)