Comments: the index fell 2.72percent and the risk remained 2600, with a cumulative decrease of 4.54percent this week

category:Finance
 Comments: the index fell 2.72percent and the risk remained 2600, with a cumulative decrease of 4.54percent this week


Sectors fell more or rose less: a few sectors such as China shipbuilding, beer concept, registered new shares, banks and other sectors turned red, while photoresist, biological vaccine, SMIC concept, third generation semiconductor, agriculture and other sectors fell first.

Huang Wentao, chief analyst of macro fixed income of China Securities Construction Investment Co., Ltd., issued a paper saying that the one-year LPR quotation in October was consistent with that in September. In recent years, the central banks monetary policy operation mainly focuses on the precise operation of open market operation, and the positioning of monetary policy in important meetings is not to flood with water, so the expectation of reducing reserve rate and interest rate is relatively low. As for the later trend of monetary policy, the overall liquidity will remain moderate, but the continuous easing trend is not expected to continue. In the later stage, the monetary policy will continue to operate with precision and structural adjustment, and the policy keynote will remain relatively stable.

CICC pointed out that the short-term RMB against the U.S. dollar may remain stronger. The two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has increased, and there may be overshoot in the short term. It is not ruled out that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will continue to appreciate slightly to about 6.5 yuan to 1 US dollar in the short term. But looking further, there are also some factors that may inhibit the RMB exchange rate. In this case, it is not ruled out that the RMB will depreciate slightly against the U.S. dollar, for example, to about 7.0 yuan per dollar.

CITIC Securities pointed out that the communication industry was greatly affected by the domestic epidemic situation in the first quarter. In the second quarter, due to the resumption of work and the delay in delivery of orders in the first quarter, the performance of IDC, optical communication and Internet of things sectors was outstanding. As a result of overseas uncertainties and normalization of the epidemic situation, the communication industry in the third quarter was still under pressure. In the long run, the investment logic of IDC, optical communication, Internet of things and other sectors has not changed, and we continue to focus on recommending the leaders of each segment.

YueKai Securities said that the recent fund wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the stability of the large financial sector has played a supporting role in the index. In the future market, we should pay attention to whether the transaction volume of the two markets can be large. We should pay attention to the performance in the allocation. In the short and medium term, we can pay attention to the pro cyclical plate with undervalued value, such as insurance, banking, etc. In addition, the double 11 sales data is expected to become a catalyst in the peak consumption season, and we can pay proper attention to e-commerce, online Red economy, logistics, consumer goods and other sectors.

Guotai Junan believes that the recent net outflow of foreign capital is due to the decline of risk preference under the external uncertain environment and the lack of risk compensation for heavy positions, thus switching to buy bonds with low-risk characteristics and cyclical stocks. Looking back, with the gradual landing and pricing of peripheral risks, and the in-depth development of domestic economic recovery and corporate profit recovery, foreign capital is expected to increase the allocation of a shares in the fourth quarter.