SpaceX continues to consolidate its position as the mission control center of the emerging space economy, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note to investors. The huge potential of the companys Starlink, starship and other projects, as well as the lucrative government contracts, are important reasons for us to improve its estimated value.
Morgan Stanleys latest estimate of SpaceX is twice what it was before July, but Jonas said: things have changed quite a bit since we published that report three months ago.. During this period, SpaceX has completed a series of landmark events, including successfully bringing back the first batch of NASA astronauts from space, winning a multi billion dollar contract from the Department of defense, launching hundreds of satellite chains into orbit to establish its global Internet service, and conducting two test flights of its next-generation starship. The company also completed $2.1 billion in equity financing in August, when it was valued at close to $44 billion.
Morgan Stanley raised the base case valuation of SpaceX to $101 billion from $52 billion, and slightly raised its valuation in the bull market to $2030 billion from $175 billion. Even in the most unlikely bear market, valuations rose from $200 million to $5.4 billion.
Morgan Stanley estimates that SpaceXs rocket launch business will be valued at $11.7 billion, its satellite link Internet business will grow to $80.9 billion, and its point-to-point space travel business will be valued at $8.7 billion. In a bull market, the value of rocket launch business will increase to US $52.5 billion, star chain business will jump to US $132.8 billion, and the value of point-to-point travel business will reach US $17.4 billion.
So far, SpaceX has launched 18 missions in 2020, and in recent years, SpaceX has dominated the global satellite launch market. In addition, SpaceX has steadily broken through the boundaries of reusable rockets, most notably by reducing the cost of rocket boosters. So far, 40 SpaceX boosters have been recovered, and 55 of them have been recovered. SpaceX is widely recognized as a low-cost launch service provider in the global launch market, Jonas said
Morgan Stanley predicts that SpaceX will be able to launch rockets every day by 2040. In 20 years, each launch of SpaceX will generate $67 million in revenue, with an operating margin of 20%. This largely depends on the success of its starship program. Jonas estimates that the full development of the Starship will cost 5.6 billion to 8 billion dollars, and one of its advantages will be the ability to launch 400 satellite chains simultaneously. Morgan Stanley raised its expected valuation of the star chain project to $81 billion from $42 billion before. (small)
Source: Qiao JunJing, editor in charge of Netease science and Technology Report_ NBJ11279