When Chinese reporters from securities companies interviewed investors from mainland and Hong Kong, many buyers believed that the valuation should be based on the worlds well-known technology stocks; however, some institutional investors believed that the micro loan business was the main income source of ants, so the valuation should not be too high from this perspective.
Institutional investor disagreement: is it a bubble or worth buying?
For the next part of the pricing process, the buyer generally expects that the inquiry will be hot and the price will be very high. However, the difficulty of this pricing can not be underestimated. A private fund personage in Hong Kong analyzed to the Chinese reporter of the securities company, this is the first time that a large-scale company has been listed in the two places for the first time. The capital structure of the two places is not the same, and the valuation of ants is not the same. Second, there are many uncertain factors in the current presidential election period of the United States, As for the influence of Sino US relations, it was previously reported that ants may be punished.
In addition, the market has different opinions on whether ants should be positioned as financial institutions or technology companies, which largely determines the valuation method. Some investors do not fully agree with ants technology positioning.
On October 21, in an open letter to investors, the chairman stressed at the beginning that ant is not a financial institution, nor a mobile payment company, but a technology company.
According to the application information of science and technology innovation board, ant group industry is classified as Internet and related services. The company is known as a digital payment provider and a digital financial technology platform. However, from the perspective of income, ants micro loan business accounted for a large proportion. The digital financial technology platform contributed 63.39% of the revenue in the first half of this year, and the micro loan technology platform accounted for 39.41%.
Before that, similar cases appeared in the capital market, that is, institutional investors and issuers had differences on the industry attributes. In 2018, Xiaomi was listed in Hong Kong stock market, positioning itself as an Internet Ecological platform, but the buyer didnt buy it. From the perspective of income structure, Xiaomi is essentially a mobile phone hardware manufacturer and should not give an overvalued value of Internet companies.
This time, does the market have the same industry valuation debate over ants? A partner of a medium-sized private equity fund in Shenzhen said that the construction of millet ecosystem was still relatively elementary. Millets income was mainly made by mobile phone hardware, and the contribution of ecological income was not much. Ants are not the same, there is not much difference. Ant has a huge development space, and its mechanism advantages and business space are much larger than those of traditional banks. It is impossible to price ants according to the valuation of financial stocks. The market should still price according to the valuation of technology stocks. Although the income mainly comes from the micro loan business, the loan quality and dispersion is obviously better than that of banks.
According to the static P / E ratio given by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. on October 20, the P / E ratio of Internet and related services is 38.51 times, and that of the financial industry is 9.33 times.
A private fund official in Hongkong told reporters that we mainly consider the valuation of the payment business from the perspective of Alipays market share, ecology, end users and all kinds of service charges. But master card is not as good as MasterCard in analyzing data.
Although there are different opinions on the valuation, it is generally believed that the final pricing of ants may be very high, and funds will be actively involved. We are also asking about the markets price expectations for ants. In fact, long-term funds, such as foreign investors, are very interested in ants. After Alibabas IPO in Hong Kong, it will bring foreign investors excess returns, so foreign investors have high expectations for ant listing. The Hong Kong Private Equity Fund said.
A private equity fund source in Shanghai said that no matter how expensive it is, you have to buy it. digital economy is a very good track, and ants are the leading company on this track. It is sure that the market will stir up speculation, but good companies should not be too expensive..
Analysts across the border planting grass agree, with a valuation proposal of 1.7-2.5 trillion
According to the statistics of the research reports on ant group since this year, eight sellers have been covered by financial industry analysts, such as Zhongtai securities, Guoxin Securities and China Merchants Securities. But further subdivision, there are differences. Great Wall Securities and Guotai Junan are covered by non bank analysts; Guosheng securities and new era securities are covered by bank analysts; while the non bank group and bank group of CITIC Securities have published research reports on ants.
In addition, there are three securities companies covered by the computer industry, such as Shenwan Hongyuan and Shengang securities; and some securities companies divide ants into media industries, such as Founder Securities.
There are also cross group cooperation between sellers. For example, the Internet team of Tianfeng securities and the non bank team have jointly released a research report on ants; the computer team and non bank team of open source securities have also cooperated to produce.
But ant group wants to emphasize the attribute of science and technology. In mid September, foreign media reported that ant group communicated with at least seven investment banks, hoping to arrange analysts from the technology industry to cover the companys IPO research and release reports.
Interestingly, although the Research Institute of securities companies has different opinions on the classification of ant industry, the valuation suggestions given by analysts from different industries are basically the same.
Analysts of China Thailand securities financial group said that 45-60 times PE was given to ant group, corresponding to the target market value of 1.8720-2.4960 trillion yuan in 2020. Reference companies include PayPal, visa, MasterCard, Facebook, Amazon, Tencent, Dongfang fortune and Alibaba.
According to the research report jointly released by the computer team and non bank team of Kaiyuan securities, ant groups PE will be 40-60 times in 2020, with a market value range of 1.69 trillion yuan-2.53 trillion yuan. Reference companies include PayPal, visa, Tencent holdings, Oriental Fortune and Alibaba.
Guoxin Securities Financial Group analysts believe that ant group stock value corresponding to 2020 dynamic PE is 40 ~ 60 times, corresponding to the companys total value of 1.7 ~ 2.5 trillion yuan. Reference comparable companies are Tencent holdings, Oriental Wealth, Alibaba.
The valuation suggestion given by the analysts of China Merchants Securities Financial Group is that 40xpe corresponds to the market value of 1.7441 trillion yuan at the time of listing. Reference companies include PayPal, visa, MasterCard and American Express.
Futu securities investment research team said that based on a series of core assumptions, the internal value of ant group is estimated to be 2.0316 trillion yuan. The specific core assumptions include but are not limited to, ant groups annual compound growth rate of operating income and net profit in the next five years will reach 29% and 55%; ant groups weighted average cost of capital is 7.75%; ant groups sustainable growth rate is 3%. Credit Suisse gave a higher valuation recommendation, according to Reuters on the 22nd. According to the three valuation methods, Credit Suisse gives the average valuation of the ant group, and thinks that the valuation in 2021 is about 380 billion to 461 billion US dollars, which is about 41-49 times the net adjusted profit after PE. On the same day, according to media reports, analysts of the leading listing bank of ant group suggested that the valuation range of ant group should be between 333 billion US dollars and 475 billion US dollars, equivalent to about 2.2 trillion yuan to 3.2 trillion yuan. Source of this article: Yang Bin, responsible editor of securities companies in China_ NF4368
Futu securities investment research team said that based on a series of core assumptions, the internal value of ant group is estimated to be 2.0316 trillion yuan. The specific core assumptions include but are not limited to, ant groups annual compound growth rate of operating income and net profit in the next five years will reach 29% and 55%; ant groups weighted average cost of capital is 7.75%; ant groups sustainable growth rate is 3%.
Credit Suisse gave a higher valuation recommendation, according to Reuters on the 22nd. According to the three valuation methods, Credit Suisse gives the average valuation of the ant group, and thinks that the valuation in 2021 is about 380 billion to 461 billion US dollars, which is about 41-49 times the net adjusted profit after PE.
On the same day, according to media reports, analysts of the leading listing bank of ant group suggested that the valuation range of ant group should be between 333 billion US dollars and 475 billion US dollars, equivalent to about 2.2 trillion yuan to 3.2 trillion yuan.