On the 23rd, a shares opened, Fuling mustard quickly sealed the limit. As of press, the stock price was 44.32 yuan, and nearly 30000 hands were sealed on the limit board.
As for the flash crash of Baima shares, the manager of a small and medium-sized public offering fund in South China said that at present, the short-term increase of some white horse stocks is too high and the valuation is at a historical high, and it is normal to make up for the decline under the weak market. The key is to judge whether the future performance growth and certainty of listed companies can digest the overvalue. The core of the white horse flash collapse is that the short-term funds of the target are too crowded, and the future expectations are too optimistic. However, after certain adjustments, the opportunities for high-quality targets are greater than the risks.
Why fall limit?
On the evening of 22nd, Fuling Zhacai released its third quarterly report. From January to September, the company realized 1.798 billion yuan of operating revenue, a year-on-year increase of 12.09%, and a net profit of 614 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies, with a year-on-year increase of 18.47%.
At first glance, the performance is OK, the problem is in the third quarter.
The growth of net profit of the company slowed down in the third quarter. The financial report shows that in the first half of 2020, Fuling pickle has achieved an operating income of RMB 1.198 billion, an increase of 10.28% year-on-year; the net profit is RMB 440million, an increase of 28.44% year-on-year.
It is understood that Fuling pickle is the only listed company in the A-share pickle industry. The company is mainly engaged in the development, production and sales of instant food such as pickled mustard, radish, pickle, next meal and other appetizer dishes. It is the largest enterprise in the country. Affected by the epidemic, the rise of housing economy has greatly increased the demand for storable food such as mustard and instant noodles.
However, in the third quarter, with the impact of the epidemic basically dissipated, consumers active consumption tendency for the necessary consumer goods returned to rationality, and the delivery / dynamic sales situation of some food enterprises gradually tended to be normal.
Fuling mustard said that in the next step, on the basis of meeting the increasingly diversified market demand and green environmental protection and food safety regulatory requirements, the company will further refine Wujiang Mustard, fully tap the traditional consumption market of Wujiang Mustard, actively explore emerging consumer markets such as catering mustard Market and leisure mustard market, and enhance the comprehensive competitive strength of Wujiang brand After entering the market of sauce, pickle, Sichuan style compound seasoning and leisure fruit and vegetable snack market, we should make corresponding preparations.
Some executives want to reduce their holdings
On the evening of October 21, Fuling pickled vegetables disclosed the plans of reducing shares of Zhao Ping, director of the company, and Xiao Dabo, chairman of the board of supervisors.
Due to the demand of personal capital, Zhao Ping plans to reduce the holding of no more than 230000 shares, accounting for 0.0291% of the total share capital of the listed company; Xiao Dabo plans to reduce the holding of no more than 500000 shares, accounting for 0.0633% of the total share capital of the listed company.
By the end of October 22, the total market value of Fuling mustard this year has increased by 17.768 billion yuan, or 84.21%. From 2010 to now, its stock price has risen more than 14 times in 10 years, known as A-share small Maotai pickle.
Data show that, as of the third quarter, institutional positions accounted for more than 56%.
What do securities analysts think?
Anson Securities believes that the high base is the main reason for the lower than expected performance in the third quarter.
In terms of income, it is relatively stable. After channel replenishment in the second quarter, sales returned to normal in the third quarter, reflecting the real demand and the increment brought by channel expansion. The net interest rate in the third quarter was 34.83%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.35%, which was mainly due to the decrease of investment income and high base.
1) The investment income of 2019q3 was 17 million yuan (mainly financial income), while that of 2020q3 was only 240000 yuan. If the impact of investment income was excluded, the net profit increased by 10.9% year on year;
2) In 2020q3, the sales expense rate increased by 2.07 PCT year-on-year, and the gross profit rate decreased by 1.04 PCT on a year-on-year basis. The relatively high net interest rate of 2019q3 was caused by the large fluctuation of expenses in the quarter of 2019; compared with the quarter of this year, the change of sales expense rate / net interest rate is relatively stable, and the expense investment tends to be normalized.
China Merchants Securities pointed out that in the third quarter, the companys revenue and profit attributable to the parent company increased by 15.88% and 3% respectively. The upward trend of the expense rate slowed down the profit growth, but the seasonal fluctuation had limited impact on the real operation. At present, the inventory is expected to maintain a stable growth in the fourth quarter and be ready for the coming year. The apparent growth rate of financial statements under low base is expected to maintain a high level. Previously, Fuling State Investment Corporation, the major shareholder of the fixed increase program, and general manager Zhou, the senior manager, all participated in the plan to demonstrate their confidence in development. After the implementation, the company will make new breakthroughs in category diversification and marketing methods, which will support the 3-5-year speed-up of development. We slightly adjusted the EPS of 20-22 years to 0.94, 1.06 and 1.19 yuan (0.99, 1.09 and 1.2 yuan in the previous time) to maintain the highly recommended-a rating.
According to Minsheng securities analysis, in the short term, Q4 revenue volume price still has a bright spot. Volume increase: channel sinking effect continues to appear, and sales promotion has sufficient guarantee; price rise: at the end of Q2, the company reduced the main circulation products (80g to 70g), equivalent to a disguised price increase of 10% +, which will continue to boost the income side. In the medium and long term, channel extension: the company used to focus on C-end, but now it is vigorously expanding the catering and takeout channels, and is optimistic about the b-end for a long time to provide performance increment for the company. Category expansion: pickle industry is better than mustard, but limited by Huitong brand influence is small. Since 19h2, the company has promoted Wujiang main brand to replace Huitong brand. With the gradual spread of pickles in the Wujiang channel, we are optimistic about the pickle business for a long time to continue to expand and get rid of the bottleneck of growth. In August, the company plans to increase the production capacity, including 407000 tons of raw material pits, raw material processing workshops and equipment, 200000 tons of mustard production workshops and equipment and logistics and other supporting facilities, which is expected to provide strong support for channel extension and category expansion. In addition, it is planned to build Fuling pickle information system project in Wujiang River, which is conducive to comprehensively improving the production standardization and intelligent level, and at the same time, improving the marketing ability. Source: China Fund News Editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368