After the reform and opening up, Southern Jiangsu, close to Shanghai, has developed rapidly with export-oriented industries. Suzhou, close to Shanghai, has developed its industrial economy at a high speed through division of labor and cooperation with Shanghai, becoming the city with the largest industrial output value in China.
Several county-level cities under the jurisdiction of Suzhou, including Kunshan, Zhangjiagang and Changshu, have long been among the top 100 counties in China. According to the 2019 statistical bulletin of Kunshan City, the GDP of Kunshan City is 404.506 billion yuan, which is the first county-level city in China with GDP exceeding 400 billion yuan and financial revenue exceeding 40 billion yuan. According to the list of Chinas top 100 county economy in 2020, Kunshan has ranked first for 16 consecutive years. If we compare Kunshan with cities above prefecture level, it will surpass Guiyang, Taiyuan and other provincial capitals, and will be about 56th in the list of cities.
Ding Changfa, associate professor of Economics Department of Xiamen University, analyzed to the first financial reporter that Suzhous back is Shanghai, and it is very significant to accept Shanghais spillover effect. Whether it is the development of Suzhous export-oriented economy after the reform and opening up, or the development of high-tech industries in recent years, Shanghais service and radiation leading role are very important to it.
According to the data, Suzhous per capita GDP will reach 179200 yuan in 2019, far ahead of these big cities with large population. Due to its developed economy, Suzhou has also attracted a large number of people. Last year, the net inflow of population in Suzhou reached 3.52 million.
Linyi in Shandong Province and Nanyang City in Henan Province have a total population of more than 10 million, ranking second and third. In addition, there are four ordinary prefecture level cities with a permanent resident population of more than 9 million, namely Handan and Baoding in Hebei Province, Weifang in Shandong Province and Wenzhou in Zhejiang Province.
Among the top 15 cities mentioned above, Suzhou, Quanzhou, Dongguan, Wenzhou and other cities have highly developed industries, attracting a large number of foreign population, thus becoming a city with large population; in contrast, Nanyang, Zhoukou, Fuyang and other cities have a large outflow of population.
From the perspective of regional distribution, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, these regions of the population is particularly concentrated. Niu Fengrui, a researcher at the urban development and environment research center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed to the first financial reporter that the Huang Huai Hai Plain has a large population with more than 1000 people per square kilometer in some places, and many counties are under the jurisdiction of prefecture level cities, which makes it easier to form a big city with a large population. Although many of these big cities are population outflow cities, their population base is still very large.
For example, Nanyang has 2 municipal districts, 10 counties and 1 county-level city; Baoding has 5 districts, 4 county-level cities and 15 counties; Linyi has 3 districts and 9 counties; Handan has 6 districts, 11 counties and 1 county-level city.
In other words, although the population scale of these cities is very large, a considerable part of the population comes from the counties and cities under their jurisdiction, and the population size of the central urban area is not large. For example, the urban population of Nanyang is only 1.6 million, Baoding is only 1.73 million, and Zhoukou is only 400000 people. The central cities of these cities with large population are relatively small, and there is a big gap with the first and second tier cities. Therefore, the industrial development of these prefecture level cities is insufficient, and the resource elements and radiation leading capacity of central cities are relatively weak.
The future path of big cities with large population is different
Judging from the per capita GDP of 15 cities, five cities have exceeded the national average of 70892 yuan, namely Suzhou, Quanzhou, Dongguan, Xuzhou and Wenzhou. All of them come from the developed southeast coastal areas, of which Suzhou, Quanzhou and Dongguan exceed 100000 yuan. The private economy of these cities is very developed, and the development of manufacturing industry is very prominent.
In addition, 10 cities are lower than the national average level. Among them, the per capita GDP of eight cities is less than 50000 yuan, and seven cities are less than 40000 yuan, namely Fuyang, Baoding, Handan, Zhoukou, Nanyang, Heze and Ganzhou. These cities are mainly from the central and western regions, Hebei and the southwest of Shandong Province. Fuyang and Baoding, the lowest cities, are less than half of the national average.
Urbanization rate is also an important reference for the economic development level of cities with large population. Among the 15 cities, the urbanization rate of 5 cities in 2019 exceeds the national average of 60.60%. Among them, Dongguan ranked first with 92.1%, Suzhou and Wenzhou both exceeded 70%, and Quanzhou reached 67.2%. The urbanization rate of 10 cities is lower than the national level, of which Zhoukou, Fuyang and Nanyang are all lower than 50%, and Ganzhou, Linyi and Baoding are less than 55%. These places have great potential for urbanization in the future.
The difference of economic development level also affects the flow of population. Dongguan, Suzhou, Quanzhou, Wenzhou and other economically developed areas have developed industries and many employment opportunities, attracting a large number of foreign population. For example, the net population of Dongguan has reached 5 million 953 thousand and 900, while the registered residence population is 2 million 510 thousand and 600. Registered residence and resident population are in the hang up phenomenon. In addition, the net inflow of population in Suzhou also reached 3.524 million, and that of Quanzhou reached 1.313 million.
In contrast, many cities with large population in the central and western regions have a large population outflow. For example, the net outflow of population in Zhoukou is about 3 million, that of Fuyang is 2.51 million, and that of Nanyang is close to 2 million.
For these populous cities, the future development path is different. Ding Changfa said that Dongguan and Suzhou have a great similarity, that is, there are big international cities nearby. Dongguan is close to Shenzhen and Hong Kong, and Suzhou is close to Shanghai. The spillover effect of industry, capital and talents in the first tier cities is significant. For example, in terms of high-tech industries, Suzhou and Dongguan are the top two cities outside the four first tier cities, which are largely driven by the first tier cities nearby. At present, the transformation and upgrading of Dongguan and Suzhou are relatively successful.
Quanzhou and Wenzhou, two big manufacturing cities far away from the core areas of urban agglomerations and first tier cities, are another situation. Ding Changfa said that Wenzhou and Quanzhou mainly rely on endogenous development, relying on the local private economy. Compared with Suzhou and Dongguan, these two cities need more industrial upgrading. For example, Quanzhou is well-developed in light and textile industry, and Wenzhou is also well-developed in light industry. At the same time, the bottleneck of the two cities is similar, that is, the lack of talents; in addition, the two cities are under the jurisdiction of the county economy is very developed, and the driving capacity of the central city is weak. How to solve these bottlenecks is very important for future development.
For the big cities with large population outflow, Niu Fengrui believes that the agricultural production conditions in the Huang Huai Hai Plain are very good, the unit output of cultivated land is very high, and at the same time, there are more surplus rural labor forces, so many people have gone to Beijing, Shanghai and other big cities. In recent years, with the development of regional central cities, such as Hefei, Zhengzhou, Jinan, Shijiazhuang and so on, a lot of population has flowed to these cities. Compared with the central cities with prominent service industries, these cities with large population will focus on the development of manufacturing industry in the future.
Ding Changfa said that big countries have the advantages of big countries, and the key lies in whether these large population cities can give full play to their comparative advantages. Chinas labor-intensive industries have a very complete industrial chain, these industries in Nanyang, Zhoukou, Baoding, Fuyang and other populous cities still have a lot of room for development. For these cities, the most important thing is to improve the local transportation, logistics, water and electricity, business environment and other software and hardware environment, make full use of local labor advantages, develop suitable industries, and accelerate the process of local industrialization and urbanization. Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Institute of restructuring, also believes that there is still a large space for the development of general manufacturing industry in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities. It is necessary to transfer the general manufacturing industry of the first and second tier cities to the third, fourth and fifth tier cities with a large population, so as to form a reasonable division of labor and cooperation. Source of this article: Guo Chenqi, editor in charge of first finance and Economics_ NBJ9931
Ding Changfa said that big countries have the advantages of big countries, and the key lies in whether these large population cities can give full play to their comparative advantages. Chinas labor-intensive industries have a very complete industrial chain, these industries in Nanyang, Zhoukou, Baoding, Fuyang and other populous cities still have a lot of room for development. For these cities, the most important thing is to improve the local transportation, logistics, water and electricity, business environment and other software and hardware environment, make full use of local labor advantages, develop suitable industries, and accelerate the process of local industrialization and urbanization.
Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Institute of restructuring, also believes that there is still a large space for the development of general manufacturing industry in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities. It is necessary to transfer the general manufacturing industry of the first and second tier cities to the third, fourth and fifth tier cities with a large population, so as to form a reasonable division of labor and cooperation.