Taking history as a reference! The 14-5-year plan and the pattern of investment opportunities of A-share investment rhythm

category:Finance
 Taking history as a reference! The 14-5-year plan and the pattern of investment opportunities of A-share investment rhythm


It is expected to boost the allocation of risk preference and should not be excessively pessimistic

Bohai Securities believes that on the whole, the short-term support of fundamentals and the tightening of total liquidity make it difficult for the market to break through the rhythm of shock market. On the one hand, the volatility of short-term risk preference in A-share market is disturbed by external factors such as the second wave of overseas epidemic situation, the US election and overseas markets; on the other hand, it also comes from the implementation of the 14th five year plan. Although the market shows some short-term fatigue, but the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee is approaching, the allocation should not be too pessimistic.

Guosheng Securities believes that, referring to historical experience, the market performance before and after the release of the five-year plan is mostly good, and brings short-term market hot spots and structural opportunities. This 14th five year plan is particularly important, shouldering the historical mission of accelerating economic transformation and upgrading, and winning the protracted war of science and technology. At present, Chinas economic development, especially the innovation and upgrading of high-tech industries, is facing unprecedented external constraints. The next five years will become a key time window for China to break the shackles of science and technology and realize economic transformation and upgrading. Therefore, this 14th five year plan will also shoulder the historical mission and become the key program for Chinas economic transformation and upgrading and winning the protracted war of science and technology in the future.

The 14th five year plan and a share investment rhythm

Several important time nodes of the 14th five year plan are as follows: 1) the communique of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) elaborates the gist of the 14th five year plan on October 29; 2) the full text of the proposal draft of the 14th five year plan issued by the CPC Central Committee in early November; 3) the full text of the 14th five year plan will be released after the deliberation and approval of the National Peoples Congress in the middle of March next year; and 4) the 14th five year strategic emerging industry plan will be released.

Tianfeng Securities believes that market sentiment has been improved before and after the release of the 12th Five Year Plan and the 13th five year plan, but because both are in a weak market, the sustainability is not strong. After the release of the two strategic emerging industry plans, the market performance was relatively low. On the one hand, it was related to the market environment at that time, on the other hand, it was also related to the market expectation and good cashing. 5g and new materials were reflected in advance before the release of the strategic planning.

Huatai Securities believes that the investment rhythm may be divided into three stages: the expected brewing stage, the expected realization stage and the planning implementation stage. The excess return of the planning related industry index may be high at both ends and low in the middle.

In the expected brewing stage, that is, the study of the five-year plan and the preparation of the proposal, the relevant index has a strong excess return compared with the Shanghai stock index.

In the expected realization stage, that is, from the formal release of the outline to the release of the interim evaluation report, the market attention will return to normal after the expected landing, and the excess return of relevant indexes will be low.

In the implementation stage of the plan, according to the release and implementation of various special plans, the industrys profitability is expected to improve, the market attention is enhanced, and the excess return of relevant index is strengthened again.

Huatai Securities expects that the investment rhythm of the 14th five year plan will also be divided into three stages. During the brewing period of the plan (2019-2020 / 10), the relevant industry indexes will fluctuate in the early stage (2020 / 11-12), and in the later stage (2021), the relevant industry indexes will fall down compared with the Shanghai Composite Index, and in the implementation stage (from the end of 2021 to 2025 / 10), the relevant industry indexes will exceed Revenue has strengthened again.

Which sectors are highly concerned

Societe Generale Securities suggests that it should grasp the benefit direction of the main policies in the 14th five year plan, including new energy (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles), military industry, semiconductor, etc. After nearly three months of adjustment, the technology growth related sectors show a certain value for money. The superposition of industrial policies and the 14th five year plan are coming soon, and the growth of science and technology is expected to usher in a window period of risk preference improvement. In the current position, starting from the structure and local characteristics, such as photovoltaic, military and other high-quality subdivision track, the booming cycle growth stocks, the obvious direction of improving the performance of the interim report, and the reasonable chip structure distribution is worthy of attention. Secondly, the 14th five year plan is expected to benefit and usher in policy catalysis, such as semiconductor chain, new energy vehicle chain and so on. Scientific and technological innovation of great innovation is the main line of this round of long bull opportunities.

CITIC Securities believes that the attention of the 14th five year plan remains high. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China from October 26 to 29 will discuss the 14th five year plan. In addition to the energy policies expected in the market in the near future, it is expected that the population policy and the industrial policy of invigorating the country through science and technology will also become the focus of market attention. Core components, key basic materials, advanced basic technology and industrial technology foundation are expected to become the focus of industrial policy. As the events such as the 14th five year plan, the U.S. general election, and repeated outbreaks have been settled, the fundamentals have entered a vacuum period, and the upward momentum of the market will be further strengthened. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the varieties with relatively insufficient market awareness in the theme of the 14th five year plan, including military electronics, information security, semiconductor and optical modules related to industrial policies, and sub industries of maternal and infant plate related to population policy.

Tianfeng Securities believes that looking forward to the fourteenth five year plan, we need to pay attention to several key words: the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed high-quality development (desalinating the total amount and paying attention to the structure); the fourth Central Committee of the 19th session proposed the national system for tackling key problems in core technology and upgraded the socialist market economic system to the basic economic system; in April this year, it issued the top-level document on the marketization of factors, which has been raised at the heavy conferences since May The concept of double circulation. It is suggested to pay attention to the following potential positive directions:

Huatai Securities believes that, currently in the policy brewing period, it pays attention to five directions of investment opportunities, including new energy, new energy vehicles, national defense and military industry, industrial Internet, food security and other directions; in addition, according to the relevant policies recently issued by the state, Rural Revitalization (horse industry, digital rural areas, etc.), intelligent construction and construction industrialization, industrial big data, and state-owned enterprises, etc Enterprise reform and other directions may be worthy of attention.

Source: Securities Times editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368