Deep V oil price rebounds

category:Finance
 Deep V oil price rebounds


House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday that although Democrats and the White House are about to reach an anti epidemic stimulus agreement, it may take longer to write and vote on the bill. Pelosi said the dialogue with the trump administration on the stimulus plan is on a good track and will soon be ready to sign the stimulus bill and almost to reach a stimulus agreement, but warned that it will take time for it to be voted into law as she and the trump administration are trying to solve the remaining issues.

White House chief of staff meadows said on Thursday that the negotiations on the epidemic assistance bill have entered a new stage, beginning to discuss technical language. Trump is willing to step up efforts on the aid bill, including direct payments to families. The current size of the aid bill is $1.9 trillion. Trump has got Republican support for the stimulus.

US jobless claims data continue to improve

Before the U.S. stock market yesterday, the United States released the latest initial jobless claims data. As of October 17, the number of new US jobless claims recorded 787000, which is expected to be 860000. The previous value was revised from 898000 to 842000. As of the week ending October 10, the number of unemployed claims in the United States recorded 8.373 million, the fourth consecutive week of decline, and for the first time since the end of March, it was below 10 million, with an expected 9.5 million. The previous value was revised from 10.018 million to 9.397 million.

California recorded the largest drop in the number of new claims last week, followed by Florida, Georgia, New York and Michigan, the labor department said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday that although Democrats and the White House are about to reach an anti epidemic stimulus agreement, it may take longer to write and vote on the bill. Pelosi said the dialogue with the trump administration on the stimulus plan is on a good track and will soon be ready to sign the stimulus bill and almost to reach a stimulus agreement, but warned that it will take time for it to be voted into law as she and the trump administration are trying to solve the remaining issues.

James Brad, chairman of St. Louis Federal Reserve, said that the Federal Reserve has determined to keep interest rates low for a long time. The Federal Reserve has not confronted the market on the interest rate prospect. The policy of the Federal Reserve is in good condition. It will need to consider how to implement QE policy in the future. Places where negative interest rates have been tried show that negative interest rates may not be as effective.

The international oil price first suppresses and then rises

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a speech on Thursday that Russia does not think it is necessary to change the OPEC + agreement and is open to postponing OPEC + production. Putin also said that Russia is ready to further reduce oil production if necessary, but it is not necessary at present.

In the view of Ma Chen, a researcher of energy products in Guangzhou futures, there are many and short factors in the current crude oil market, and the international oil price may continue to fluctuate in the early stage in the short term. On the supply side, OPECs crude oil production in September decreased by 50000 B / D to 24.11 million B / D, with a reduction implementation rate of more than 102%. Recently, Saudi Arabia and Russian officials discussed the issue of production capacity again. It is expected that OPEC + oil producing countries will not consider increasing production in the short term. The market estimates that the production reduction quota of 7.7 million barrels / day will remain unchanged after the meeting in early December. However, Libyas production capacity has recovered positively. After the reopening of ports and oilfields, the daily production of crude oil in Libya has risen to 500000 B / D, which is expected to double by the end of next year. At the level of US $40 / barrel, the supply of oil producing countries is gradually recovering, and the projects that have been delayed before are also in progress. Although the global oil inventory is still in the process of de stocking and the US crude oil continues to be de mineralized, the latest data shows that the gasoline inventory increases, which means that the oil consumption prospect is still unpredictable. Ma Chen said.

In terms of demand, Ma Chen said that the refinery overhaul in autumn coexisted with the second outbreak of the epidemic. Affected by the La Nina climate, the demand for heating oil in winter this year will be higher than in previous years, but the boosting effect on oil demand may be limited. The uncertain factors come from the US presidential election.

The oil plate went up as a whole

At present, the fundamental situation of domestic vegetable oil has not changed greatly, and the overall situation is still in the upward trend of oscillation. Zhu Yao, an oil researcher at founder medium term futures, said that the decline in the overall oil price in the early stage was mainly affected by the correction of American soybean price. Due to the rainfall in the main soybean producing areas in Brazil, the price of American soybean suffered profit taking before. However, at present, the sales progress of American soybean is good, and the existing net sales are enough to support the price of American soybean to keep above 1050 cents / bushel, which is expected to be in the United States Without a big decline in soybean export data, U.S. soybean prices will still rise to 1100 cents / bushel.

Specific to each variety, Zhu Yao believes that among the three major domestic vegetable oils, palm oil fundamentals are still the weakest, but the recent favorable export data make the price of palm oil also have to be strongly supported. According to reports, the latest statistics of a shipping company show that Malaysias palm oil export volume increased by about 4% month on month from October 1 to 20.

The positive short-term data makes the palm oil price stronger, but in the medium and long term, it still can not become the core driving force of the overall vegetable oil price rise. Looking ahead, Zhu Yao said that in the absence of a strong boost in crude oil prices, the weakness of biodiesel consumption will continue to suppress the trend of palm oil prices next year, while in the domestic market, soybean oil will still be the best performance of the three major oils in the fourth quarter. The result of the US election may bring some fluctuations to the oil market, but the domestic soybean oil price will still maintain an upward trend in the fourth quarter, mainly because the domestic imported soybean and soybean oil inventory will continue to decline in the fourth quarter. Zhu Yao further said that although China has increased the purchase of American soybeans, the overall supply of American soybeans will be significantly less than that of Brazilian soybeans. At the same time, some imported soybeans will enter the national reserve inventory. It is expected that soybean oil prices will keep rising momentum when the soybean oil inventory drops to less than 1 million tons. It is suggested to buy soybean oil 2101 contract on a bargain and hold it for a long time It is expected to reach the peak before the Spring Festival. Extended reading is heavy! Four ministries and commissions release a package of financial policy bonus: EF education responds to foreign teachers involvement in making pornographic videos of young girls_ NF4368