In the morning of October 22, China national insurance company suddenly fell sharply, and the whole insurance sector also fell very much. Fortunately, there was some blood coming back later. It is still difficult to know whether the real reason is because of arbitrage or because some people cash in because of the big increase.
On the evening of the 22nd, big news came out of Chinas Ping An. JP Morgan bought about 11.9752 million H shares of Ping An of China (2318. HK) on Monday (19), involving about HK $1.017 billion, and its long position proportion rose from 14.86% to 15.02%, according to information disclosed by the Hong Kong stock exchange.
Data show that JP Morgan bought Ping Bao H shares on and off the spot, with an average price of HK $84.9394 per share. The shares closed at HK $84.2.
Surprisingly, on October 5, not long ago, Ping An of China was reduced by 20.4198 million shares with an average price of HK $80.4052 per share in the presence of JP Morgan, involving about HK $1.642 billion. From the transaction price point of view, this is a clear chase up kill down.
In fact, prior to this, Ping An of China was increased several times by JP Morgan. Some market participants jokingly said that Chinas Ping An has been spoiled by JPMorgan Chase. So, why are you hesitant now?
JPMorgans reversal in October
On October 22, according to the equity disclosure information of the Hong Kong stock exchange, JP Morgan bought about 11.9752 million H shares of Ping An of China (2318. HK) on Monday (19), involving about HK $1.017 billion, and its long position proportion increased from 14.86% to 15.02%. Data show that JP Morgan bought Ping Bao H shares on and off the spot, with an average price of HK $84.9394 per share. The shares closed at HK $84.2.
However, according to the equity data of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 8, Ping An of China was reduced to 20.4198 million shares by JPMorgan Chase on the 5th at an average price of HK $80.4052 per share, involving a capital of about HK $1.642 billion. After the reduction, J.P. Morgans latest shareholding was 1.114 billion shares, with the shareholding ratio reduced from 15.23% to 14.95%.
From the perspective of stock price trend, this is a typical chasing up and killing down.
It is worth noting that after the close of October 19, Ping An of China announced that the premium income of the original insurance contracts of Ping An Property Insurance, Ping An Life Insurance, Ping an endowment insurance and Ping An health insurance of the companys holding subsidiaries from January 2020 to September 2020 were about 219489.5 billion yuan, 377.586 billion yuan, 21.774 billion yuan and 7.459 billion yuan respectively, totaling 626.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase 88%. The year-on-year growth rate continued to improve.
At the same time, among the active stocks listed on the list on October 19, Ping An of China had a turnover of HK $277 million and a net purchase amount of HK $226 million through the Hong Kong stock connect channel. Moreover, the shares had been sold net for four consecutive days with an accumulated net purchase amount of HK $832 million.
Once bought as a pet
Looking at past data, we can see that JP Morgan is actually the number one fan of Ping An in China.
According to the latest equity information of the Hong Kong stock exchange, on December 11, 2018, Ping An of China (02318-HK) acquired 13.6117 million shares of JP Morgan with an average price of HK $73.45 per share, with an estimated total price of nearly HK $1 billion.
On February 4, 2019, Ping An of China (02318-HK) acquired 8.0176 million shares with an average price of HK $76.8153 per share, with a total price of about HK $616 million. After the increase, JP Morgan held 1.197.6 billion shares, accounting for 16.08% of the issued voting shares.
Since then, there have been many increases in holdings. According to the information disclosed by the Hong Kong stock exchange, on March 19 this year, JP Morgan bought about 47.7343 million H shares of Ping An of China, involving a capital of about 3.399 billion Hong Kong dollars. As of March 19, the company eventually increased its holdings by 295 million shares. After the increase, JP Morgan has 1.427 billion shares of Ping an H shares of China, with the proportion of H shares increased from 18.51% to 19.15%.
According to the equity information of the Hong Kong stock exchange, Ping An of China (02318-HK) was awarded JPMorgan Chase & Co. On May 12, the company increased its holdings by about 30.0356 million shares at an average price of HK $78.5144 per share, involving a capital of about HK $2.358 billion. The number of shares held by JPMorgan increased from 3.5 billion to 1.692 billion.
On July 10, according to the information disclosed by the Hong Kong stock exchange, JPMorgan Chase on Monday (July 6) increased its holdings of nearly 24 million shares of Ping An of China (2318. HK), with positions of 16.27% respectively.
On July 30, JP Morgan increased its holdings of China Ping An (2318. HK) by about 30.25 million shares at a price of HK $82.5227, with a total amount of about HK $2496 million. After the increase, the latest number of shares held was about 1.203 billion shares, with the latest shareholding ratio of 16.15%.
Strange is, from the above position data, although there are many large increases. But after March this year, the proportion of positions and shareholding data have declined to a certain extent. If linked to the position data of this time, compared with the peak, the decline rate has nearly 4 points. The voice of this increase is very loud, but the shareholding ratio is getting lower and lower. What is the reason?
Why hesitate now?
If we measure the return according to the stock price rise, JPMorgans return on Ping An of China is not too high, but its shareholding ratio is going down. Why is the original loyal powder hesitating and shrinking?
From the perspective of the industry, the year-on-year growth rate of China Ping An insurance and China Taiping Insurance Co., Ltd. continued to improve. All listed insurance companies have made a good start in advance. China Pacific Insurance Company has been launched in early October, China Life Insurance is expected to start on October 20, Ping An of China is expected to start in early November, and Xinhua insurance is expected to start at the end of November.
Tianfeng Securities believes that in 2020, the business of insurance companies will be impacted by the epidemic and the overall growth will be weak. Therefore, some insurance companies have transferred their business centers to 2021 and have a good start. As a whole, Taibao and Pingan are more active on the whole, especially Taibao and Pingan. It is expected that the advance collection time will be 1-2 months ahead of schedule, and the attraction of financial insurance will increase year on year. Moreover, the current market environment is conducive to the sales of savings insurance (the yield and safety of asset management products that have just been cashed in the past, such as trust, bank financing, etc.), so it is expected that under the ultra-low base, the NBV of Taibao and Pingan will grow in the first quarter It is expected to exceed 15%. It should be said that the market for Chinas Ping An insurance stocks or there are certain expectations.
Normally, the information should have been clear in early October, and international banks usually give the impression that there is a certain continuity of investment, but JP Morgan has a reverse operation that the market is not quite able to understand. Why?
According to the previous explanation, there is one possibility that JPMorgan Chase is realizing income cashing through some operation skills; another possibility is that some investors hold Ping An An of China through JPMorgan asset management channel, and there are more than one such investor, and the recent investment behavior has been divided. But in the long run, the overall position is down. The third possibility may be related to the creation of derivatives. The information of the offshore market is not very clear. It needs to be further observed, but this trend needs to be noticed.