Some enterprises have already acted. After the National Day holiday, tire manufacturers in Shandong, Wuhan and other places have announced price increases. The single price adjustment range is between 2% and 3%. The price adjustment reasons given by them are mainly the price of raw materials rises and the production cost rises.
In the future, it is also possible for more downstream enterprises to join the price adjustment team.
Rubber prices hit new highs
The peak of rubber futures appeared in early 2011, when the price per ton exceeded 40000 yuan, and the next highest point was 24000 yuan in February 2017. Since then, continued the downward trend, has not changed.
However, according to the current price of about 15000 yuan / ton, the price of rubber has broken through the high point in recent two years, and has generally recovered to the level around March 2018.
In particular, this round of rise after the National Day this year has been very rapid.
Behind it is the experience of the upstream supply side which can be called drama this year. After October, frequent rainfall in Yunnan and Hainan, the main production areas in China, has affected output, while Thailand, a major overseas producer, has experienced rainstorms, and the price of local raw materials has reached a new high in recent years. Zhongyuan futures Rubber Researcher Liu Peiyang 22, said.
Qu Yi, a rubber analyst at Baichuan information, also pointed out that domestic rubber mainly relies on imports, but this year, affected by weather, powdery mildew and new crown epidemic situation, the tapping node was held back to the beginning of June, and then Thailand and other places were faced with rain weather in July and August, so the tapping progress was slow.
Accordingly, imported raw materials enter the domestic market later. On the contrary, domestic downstream industries, due to the concentrated outbreak of demand suppressed by the epidemic situation since June, combined with the increase in demand for medical supplies, and the diversion of raw materials to the raw material end under the high profit state of the tire industry, the domestic raw material supply has become tight.
According to him, most of the domestic all latex products will be registered as warehouse receipts of the previous period, but the comparative data show that the number of registered warehouse receipts of the exchange is only half of that of previous years. The lack of delivery products also supported rubber futures prices.
On the demand side, the sales data of automobiles including heavy trucks and passenger cars in the second half of the year are better, and there is a significant driving force from the demand side.
After the domestic epidemic situation has been stably controlled, agricultural products, chemical products, industrial products and other bulk commodities have gone out of the V shaped reversal of the market, and most commodity prices have recovered to the level before the epidemic.
Compared with the price before the epidemic, rubber is undoubtedly easier to attract fund speculation, and the market is also looking for varieties with lower valuation. Liu Peiyang thinks.
Compared with the data, it can also be seen that in the 10 trading days after the national day, the rubber futures position increased from 230000 to 330000, and the single day trading volume increased from 335000 to 1030000 in the same period, and the speculative activity increased significantly.
At present, there are big differences in the market, some see more than 20000, and some think the price will fall back. Baichuan information rubber industry analyst Qu Yi said, but from the point of view of inventory and planting, medium and long-term rise probability is greater.
She said that at present, the domestic consumption rate of all latex is faster than last year, which promotes the decline rate of old total latex inventory higher than that of the same period last year, which shows that the downstream demand of the current domestic market is better. At the same time, due to the continuous downturn of rubber price in recent years, the phenomenon of rubber farmers abandoning seeds has appeared, and the upstream supply is not optimistic.
Liu Peiyang believes that the foundation for the continuous rise of rubber price is not reliable. Abandoning seeds is not very common. Before the rubber price hit a high point of 40000 yuan in 2011, the main producing countries in Southeast Asia continued to increase planting area, and rubber trees can produce rubber for 15 consecutive years since planting. Unless it is destroyed by rainstorm or felling, the rubber supply will still be very stable.
According to the latest report released by ANRPC, the global production of natural rubber decreased by 7.3% from January to August 2020.
From a global perspective, rubber production is only a relative reduction, not a complete trend change. Liu Peiyang said.
What can not be ignored is that this years rubber industry belongs to the pattern of both supply and demand decline. Only China, which has achieved stable control of the epidemic situation, has better demand. The uncertainty of epidemic development in other countries will also delay the release of overseas market demand.
In his view, after the recent continuous sharp rise, rubber futures prices have fully reflected the relationship between supply and demand, and the future price is more likely to remain relatively stable.
However, how to digest the increase of nearly 2500 yuan per ton since October? At present, the spot price of all latex in East China is about 14000 yuan, but the market is generally active, and the downstream tire factories may not pursue a substantial increase, Liu Peiyang said. It should be pointed out that although the possibility of high-level inventory replenishment in the downstream is not likely, if the rubber price continues to maintain the current level in the future, the production cost of tire enterprises will certainly be increased. In September this year, for example, some tire enterprises such as Zhengxin tire and margiss tire issued price increase notices. Some overseas manufacturers, such as Bridgestone, have also announced to increase the prices of radial tires for trucks and buses. Now, the price of raw materials is rising again, and the prosperity of the domestic downstream automobile industry has increased significantly. Domestic tire enterprises are facing the window period of price adjustment again. Source: editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619
However, how to digest the increase of nearly 2500 yuan per ton since October?
At present, the spot price of all latex in East China is about 14000 yuan, but the market is generally active, and the downstream tire factories may not pursue a substantial increase, Liu Peiyang said.
In September this year, for example, some tire enterprises such as Zhengxin tire and margiss tire issued price increase notices. Some overseas manufacturers, such as Bridgestone, have also announced to increase the prices of radial tires for trucks and buses.
Now, the price of raw materials is rising again, and the prosperity of the domestic downstream automobile industry has increased significantly. Domestic tire enterprises are facing the window period of price adjustment again.