Yao International: the bull market is still there, but it has become a little more complicated. On the contrary, the future cycle will be longer.
Yao Changsheng: some people are describing the bull market like this now. Whenever it wants to make bubbles and run away, it will be pressed down immediately. Whenever you are disappointed, pull it up again and let you see it. So in the dark logic you mentioned just now, it may go more smoothly in the future, or it may go for a longer time in the future. It seems that the logic that you have talked with so many people is implied. Is that what you mean?
Yao International: Yes. This is more in line with and in line with the law of the whole market. In particular, the state has also made some adjustments and adjustments, including policy changes. In the future, it is bound to go out of the bear market, but also in line with the assumption of the management.
Yao International: it should last. Originally, our bull market is short and easy. The longest one may last for more than a year and two years. If it is short, it may take a few months and a round of market will be enough, not more than a year. In this case, the current managements policy changes may lead to a two-year and one-off cycle in the future, However, due to the very fast pace of IPO listing and the adjustment of the management since the first half of the year, there were few A-shares in the original securities lending business, but now it is approaching 200 billion yuan. Therefore, the whole market has entered a relatively rising and falling range and angle, which has become relatively gentle, and the cycle has naturally become longer.
Yao Changsheng: you mentioned a word just now, saying that we may face a more complicated situation. How to explain this complexity?
Yao International: this complexity is not only the domestic economy, but also the financial system risk. Because of the decline of the stock market and the economic downturn in recent years, coupled with a series of factors such as real estate regulation and control, the macro-economy has become very uncertain, including the continuous explosion. This is our internal problem.
External issues, geopolitics and trade war between China and the United States are complicated. In addition, the recent election in the United States also has great uncertainty. The recent impact may be more directly affected by this factor.
Yao Changsheng: I understand that complexity generally points to two aspects. First, you cant see clearly the companies that are worth investing in. There may be big changes and even huge differences. Second, we cant see the rhythm clearly, so what kind of new investment opportunities do you see and what kind of rhythm will you see now?
Yao International: Science and technology, new industries and new economy, including sales models, are emerging. It should be said that this is the best period. For investment, these are all new fields. From 0 to 1 to 100, there are huge business opportunities brewing and the best profit opportunity in the capital market. This is the dividend of the times.
Of course, this technological revolution will also eliminate and subvert many industries, so this is also a cycle of disappearance and extinction for these traditional industries, industries and companies,
Yao Changsheng: I see a lot of things now, including investors in the primary market. We are all looking at whether there will be some deviation in the capital dividend brought by the current technology dividend. What (opportunities) do you think were still available in the past will disappear, and what are the irresistible ones that will start to fly?
Yao International: lets talk about one thing you can see every day. New energy vehicles are a typical representative. Only a series of new technologies such as automatic driving and Internet of vehicles can run, which means that cars are truly intelligent. However, for traditional vehicles, including traditional vehicle manufacturers, whether in Europe or the United States, or in China, they have announced fuel oil Production schedule of cars. By 2025 and 2035, most of them will be in this period. In this way, you can think that the whole supply chain company with the original fuel engine including the whole mechanical structure will have no space to survive. In the next 10 years, or in a faster timetable, this is a typical one, and the industry is very large.
Yao Changsheng: any more? What else is good and bad?
Yao International: after 5g, including our mobile phones, what will the future model of mobile phones become? It is possible that the mobile phone will be replaced by a watch, because the future 5g may be delayed and cancelled. For example, AR and VR, the display terminal may also be eliminated, so your display terminal may be virtualized. In the next ten to twenty years, the display terminal may have disappeared.
How to understand overestimation
Yao Changsheng: the two question is that some people in the community are asking questions. First, we see a lot of very good companies. At the same time, we can see that these companies are not cheap at all. Are you not worried about this bubble?
Yao International: the application of new technology is a process from 0 to 1. There is not a rapid growth cycle of adding 0 after 1. It is a brand-new industry, its market is far from saturated, only just a small lotus just emerged sharp corner.
For example, the PE of banks and other companies is only a few to ten times. They are completely saturated and can not see growth. These companies are entering a period of rapid development, so the valuation may be 40 times this year, 25 times next year, and 10 times or more the following year.
The application of new technology in many industries is in the primary stage, so it will inevitably bring high value. It depends on how high the moat of the company is, which determines the development speed and space in the future.
Too fast IPO? How does it affect the market?
Yao Changsheng: I think some people in the community are asking, because the pace of issuing new shares is too fast. Its not new that we apply for three or four new stocks every day. The most important thing is that big guys are coming. Whats the size of ants? How big is CICC? What do you think?
Yao International: the most important thing is what funds will come over, whether the market has a money making effect, if there is a money making effect.
Yao International: I dont worry. I only care about a number, that is, how much savings China has. If the savings are gone, this is the most terrible.
Yao International: take a listed company as an example. If the boss of a listed company is buying a large number of shares of his company to increase his holdings, the company will surely have a future. But now is the country is constantly increasing investment, pension, enterprise annuity, social security, insurance and so on.
Yao Changsheng: the next question will come: institutional investors are now divided into two opposite groups. One group said that they must go to the end with this magnificent bull market. Another group said that they had completed the profit targets that had not been completed in the past two years in July this year. In the process of someone rushing to the examination room and someone returning home, which one do you think Fang is wrong now?
Yao International: I think those who leave will come back as long as there is a money making effect.
Yao Changsheng: the key is to make money, so you dont worry about it. Finally, what are your biggest concerns about the market now? Whats most disturbing about you?
Yao International: the only thing that bothers me is the US election and the trade war between China and the United States, which is the biggest uncertainty in the short term. There is also a question of whether you can choose a good target in the field of subdivision.
Yao International: if its a science and technology company, you can endure it. If its a traditional industry, you may still want to go out at a high point. Its better to choose a company with more growth to invest.
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