High probability of A-share breaking new high in the year
Securities companies will come and go from time to time
Host: what do you think of the next market of a shares, can it break through the new high in the year?
Lin Yuan: I think its not difficult to reach a new high in the year. Because it is not far from the new high, the probability is still very large. Now a shares are still in the bull market, to the direction of bull market development. We have not adjusted our previous judgment. I think it is still in the early stage of the bull market. So far, our positions are still very heavy, almost full.
The early stage of bull market is characterized by plate rotation, that is, some plates show performance, and some plates take a rest to perform again. Recently, I found that some large market value of the plate also rose, can rotate. This shows that a shares are currently in the early stage of the bull market. During this period, a large proportion of stocks have opportunities. Its only a matter of time. Therefore, if the mainstream products can continuously create periodic new highs, the stock market as a whole will achieve new highs.
Of course, there are also some uncertain factors, such as the external market and epidemic situation, especially the epidemic situation. From a global perspective, the outbreak of the epidemic is possible at any time, and the impact on global enterprises will still exist. We need to do a good job in this situation, and pay close attention to the price rise of some raw materials and the supply situation.
Its not my strong point, and Im just an observer. But I believe that in a short period of time in the future, such as a quarter or two, these factors will not affect the rhythm of A-shares new high in the year. And I personally think that it is still necessary to find out what has something to do with the mouth, such as making some configuration in the necessities (field).
Compere: the recent launch of large market value plates such as banks is the valuation repair of undervalued plates?
Lin Yuan: the bank is a large market value plate, many people have taken the relevant stocks, in a period of time caused everyones attention, it will rise, this is a very normal kind of rise. In addition, in the early days of a bull market, things that fall below will also rise. In the past 12 months, most of the companies with large market value have made a round of rise, but the banks have not performed well. Therefore, its rise is in line with the law of the early bull market.
Compere: what is the value of the securities sector?
Lin Yuan: securities companies and bull market are inseparable. Under the background that we judge that the market is developing towards a bull market, securities companies will also have better performance. In addition, there are good reasons, for example, under the registration system, there are more IPOs; when the market goes up, securities companies can also make money in financial management. We believe that in the next 12 months, securities companies will have the opportunity to come from time to time.
We cant gamble on the epidemic
This is just a small twists and turns in the long-term pharmaceutical market
Host: the epidemic situation can not be ignored. There are signs of rebound in overseas markets recently. Will the fourth quarter promote the pharmaceutical market?
Lin Yuan: its possible for the epidemic to happen again, and Im a little afraid of it recently. Now Qingdao has appeared. I dont know where to come again in two days. If its not good, there is a problem. One of the biggest problems is medical resources. If a sudden outbreak occurs, many medical resources can not keep up with what should be done? Of course, the state must think more carefully and comprehensively than we do. We may have made preparations in this respect. We just hope that (the epidemic situation) will not come again.
But we cant gamble on the epidemic. In the long run, this is just a small twists and turns for pharmaceutical stocks. We believe that the medical market has only officially started now, especially the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and hypertension that I emphasized in the past.
Compere: the sales expenses of some Chinese medicine enterprises are very high. What do you think?
Lin Yuan: the sales expenses are mainly related to the doctor led mode. Maybe due to anti-corruption and other reasons, doctors may prescribe less for fear of causing trouble. But we believe that, for example, cardiovascular and blood activating drugs will still be used, and these still have effects. If you think that this is a risk, dont buy related enterprises. This is indeed an uncertain factor, for fear that the doctors behavior will change.
Compere: there are many Chinese medicine enterprises to do cross-border, such as into the daily necessities industry, how do you evaluate?
Linyuan: there is an essential difference between the traditional Chinese medicine industry and the western medicine industry, that is, it does not need too much investment. We dont know the ideas of these Chinese medicine enterprises, but it may be because the market of daily necessities is very large, so there is no place to develop in this direction, such as oral products, cosmetics, etc. We believe that this is a large industry, and it is generally related to peoples health, so it is normal market behavior.
For me, looking at a Chinese medicine enterprise is not to observe what its main business is. We can ignore this part. For example, many years ago, people said that Yunnan Baiyao was not good for toothpaste, but it still made it, and the sales amount was still ranked first.
Host: Recently, cosmetics industry has also performed well. What is its long-term investment value?
Lin Yuan: in the long run, we are optimistic. Chinas cosmetics industry is still in its infancy and has not yet formed a brand giant similar to that of foreign countries. Therefore, the development potential of this industry is very large.
Host: what are the investment opportunities for domestic insulin?
Lin Yuan: we believe that domestic insulin will eventually replace imported insulin. So far, there is no way to eradicate diabetes. The consumption of insulin is very large, so the market is also very large.
Compere: after the implementation of the centralized collection scheme for coronary stents, the relevant sectors are frustrated. How will these plates perform in the future?
Lin Yuan: This is the trend. If there is no intellectual property right, price reduction is definitely the trend. It is too expensive. However, there are more and more patients in this direction. I believe that the impact on these listed companies is not too great. The quantity of these companies is more important than the price. We judge that it may double in the next three years.
Host: what about cro?
Lin Yuan: there are many subdivided fields of medicine. We havent paid much attention to it. However, we are optimistic about the whole pharmaceutical industry. Because the future market of the pharmaceutical industry will not shrink, but will continue to expand. In the next 10 years, the consumption of consumer groups will certainly go in the direction of expansion. Then, the business volume of relevant listed companies should also develop in a larger direction.
Compere: will China produce enterprises like Johnson & Johnson in the United States?
Lin Yuan: China needs time. Similar to Johnson & Johnson, he has developed over many years. However, Chinese companies are not long established, which leads to the fact that they are not allowed to set foot in too many things. But I believe that in another 10 or 20 years, China will also have enterprises like Johnson & Johnson. And there may be more than one.
The consumer industry itself is a bull market
Dairy products are expected to take a step forward
Host: investors are also more concerned about the consumer industry, what is its value?
Lin Yuan: over the years, the consumer industry has been walking the bull market. It can be said that it itself is a bull market. We believe that it will continue this advantage in the fourth quarter, and this plate will hit a new high if it is not careful. In addition, bull market does not say the top, which is our judgment of a large probability event. Frankly speaking, we will continue to hold and will not easily sell the relevant stocks, especially some necessities, or even buy them.
Host: do you like dairy products?
Lin Yuan: we have been in contact with dairy products. This is a just needed industry. In my opinion, Chinas dairy industry is still underestimated, because the market value of foreign dairy industry leaders is more than one trillion yuan, while Chinas leading dairy industry is more than 200 billion yuan, which does not match the population of China. Of course, we need to consider the difference of consumption habits.
Recently, I also found that some factors in the dairy industry have changed. For example, in the past two months, the two giants have been fighting a price war, but in recent two months, at least in the fresh milk part, the discount is less. We judge that the industry may have to go a step further.
Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of stock market red weekly_ NBJ9607