Zhongtai Securities believes that PayPal, as the leading company of third-party payment in the world, has market space and competitive advantage to support its high valuation level, and the PE center is 45-50 times; considering the characteristics and scarcity of ant group model, it has included Tencent, Alibaba, and Dongfang fortune as reference valuations. Combined with the valuation of comparable companies and the scarcity of ant model, and considering the proportion of financial business profits, ant group was given 45-60 times PE, corresponding to the target market value of 1872-249.6 billion yuan in 2020.
Guoxin Securities believes that ant groups monthly live users will reach 710 million by the end of June 2020, with significant traffic advantages, and there is still room for further improvement. The combination of huge user base and broad market space brings the growth of the company. Ant groups profitability is very prominent, exceeding the markets previous expectations for financial technology companies. The three main businesses of the company digital payment, digital financial technology platform and innovation business are all in a high degree of prosperity, and all have a certain network effect. Ant group, as the industry leader, is expected to fully enjoy the growth and leading effect of the industry. The corresponding dynamic PE of the company in 2020 is 40 ~ 60 times, corresponding to the total value of the company is 1.7 ~ 2.5 trillion yuan. Ant group has a large number of active users and rich application scenarios. Its business model is unique, its competitive advantage is remarkable, and its performance is growing rapidly. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to it actively.
China Merchants Securities expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2020 to 2022 will be 43.6 billion yuan, 57.2 billion yuan and 74.3 billion yuan, respectively, which is + 157%, + 31% and + 30% over the same period of the same period. It is estimated that the total share capital of this issue will be 30.483 billion shares after the exercise of the over allotment right. The estimated EPS in 2020-2022 will be 1.43 yuan, 1.88 yuan and 2.44 yuan respectively, and the market value of 40xpe is expected to be 1744.1 billion yuan at the time of listing.
What is the impact on a shares?
Since July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and small and medium board index have all fallen less than 2%. Some analysts believe that before the index continued to fluctuate, or with the market waiting for news landing.
Although the IPO price and fund-raising scale of ant group need to be determined after the roadshow, the market generally believes that ant will probably make the largest IPO in the world in recent years.
According to wind data, SMIC international landed on the science and technology innovation board this year, with a total fund raised of 53.2 billion yuan. There are 6 companies that have raised more than 50 billion yuan in A-share history, including Agricultural Bank of China, PetroChina, China Shenhua, China Construction Bank, smic-u and CSCEC. Among the top 10 A-share companies, 5 companies appeared in the bull market in 2006 and 2007, one in 2009 and one in 2010, and the capital raising amount of Beijing Shanghai high-speed railway in 2019 was 30.6 billion yuan.
Shanghai Securities believes that the corresponding market value range given by some securities research institutions to ant group is 1.7-2.5 trillion yuan. If ant group is incorporated into the constituent stock of CSI300 and Kechuang 50 in the future, it is expected to attract 3.14 billion yuan of passive capital and 10 billion yuan of active capital. IPO landing in the capital market with huge amount of financing often has four aspects: the effect of IPO Financing, the impact of risk preference, the diversion of transaction funds and the rebalancing of stock funds.
Related concept stocks and financial technology?
Founder Securities believes that ant financials IPO, with its unique concept of Finance + technology, will also be expected to lead the two main lines of A-share market Finance + technology to raise waves again.
Huaxi Securities suggests that it should pay attention to hang seng electronics in the field of financial technology and Lucent technology in the field of local life. Among them, Hengsheng electronics is the absolute leader in the field of financial it, which is equivalent to the b-end bridgehead of ant group in the field of financial technology and technology output. Langxin technology is a key link in the implementation of ant groups local life strategy. Its life payment, community value-added and charging pile services will be highly coordinated with ant groups payment entrance.