Can you believe it? Great Wall Motors stock price doubled this year, and its market value approached SAIC!

category:Finance
 Can you believe it? Great Wall Motors stock price doubled this year, and its market value approached SAIC!


Such share price performance is comparable to that of BYD (002594. SZ). In contrast, BYDs strong share price is easier to understand, mainly due to the rapid development of new energy vehicles and power battery business, while great wall motor is surprisingly excellent. This year is not a new year for automobile enterprises. The shares of SAIC Group (600104. SH) and GAC group (601238. SH) have fallen by 5.13% and 0.16% respectively since this year; Changan Automobile (000625. SZ), which is also positioned as the middle and low-end automobile business, has only increased by 66.2%, less than a fraction of Great Wall Motors.

What is the reason for the stock price of Great Wall Motor rising against the market? Is it market value or another bubble?

The market generally believes that the main reason for the rise of Great Wall Motors share price is the recovery of the industry, the favorable policy relaxation and the application of new products and new platforms, which makes the market expect that its benefits will be improved.

Since the second half of this year, with the weakening of the impact of the epidemic and economic recovery, car demand has gradually stabilized and rebounded. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, Chinas automobile production and sales volume in September reached 2.524 million and 2.655 million, respectively, up 14.1% and 12.8% year-on-year. As of September, automobile production and sales have been growing for six consecutive months, of which the growth rate of sales volume has remained above 10% for five consecutive months.

Another direct reason is that Great Wall Motors ushered in new products and new cycles. Since the second half of this year, the company has launched the third generation of Haval H6, which is known as the God car. In addition, many new models, such as Hufu big dog, wey tank 300, Euler white cat and Euler good cat, have also been launched. At the same time, the company released three technology platforms of lemon, tank and coffee covering the whole industry chain system of automobile R & D, production and automobile life.

Truth: sales are weaker than industry

Pickup truck is one of the top products of Great Wall Motors. As early as the 1990s, Great Wall Motors began to rely on pickup trucks, its pickup sales have been ranked first in the industry, accounting for nearly 50% of the market. The main products of Great Wall pickup are great wall C30, Fengjun pickup and Great Wall gun. In the first nine months of this year, the sales of Great Wall pickup trucks were 160400, up 63.17% year on year.

Another high-end brand of great wall, wey brand, was established in 2016, and its products are positioned in domestic luxury SUVs. Wey launched its first model vv7 in April 2017, and sales of vv7 increased at the initial stage of its launch. However, today, the overall performance of wey is hardly excellent. In the first three quarters of this year, wey sold 50300 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 28.01%; in September, it sold 9000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3.86%.

Euler brand was founded in 2018, and is a pure electric brand of great wall motor. Compared with other mainstream new energy vehicles, Euler has a long way to go. In September, Euler sold 6619 vehicles. Over the same period, Tesla Model3 sold 11300 vehicles. Hongguang meievs, which are also domestic new energy vehicles, sold 14500 vehicles in September, twice the monthly sales of Euler. In the first three quarters of this year, Euler sold 23900 vehicles, down 25.7 percent year on year.

Bubble?

From the valuation point of view, Great Wall Motors has reached a 10-year high. In the first half of this year, the revenue and net profit of Great Wall Motors were 35.9 billion yuan and 1.146 billion yuan, respectively, down 13.17% and 24.46% year on year. At the same time, the companys valuation increased significantly. According to the wind P / E channel, GWMs current corresponding rolling P / E ratio is 56 times, while its valuation center is only 14 times P / E.

Data source: wind

As of the time of publication, according to the data of Dongfang fortune, the total market value of Great Wall Motors has reached 225.5 billion yuan, and that of SAIC Group is 251.4 billion yuan, with a difference of 25.9 billion yuan. In terms of volume, SAIC Groups revenue in the first half of this year was 283.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.4 billion yuan; Great Wall Motors revenue in the same period was 35.9 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.146 billion yuan.

The Great Wall car sales volume is 13% of SAIC Group, and the market value of the two companies is only about 10%. Is there really no bubble?

It is worth noting that the ah shares of Great Wall Auto are seriously inverted. As of October 21, the a share price of Great Wall Motors was 24.57 yuan / share, and the H share price was HK $13.42/share. Considering the exchange rate conversion, the corresponding stock price of Great Wall Motors H share is only 11.53 yuan / share, less than half of the share price of a share.

From the perspective of the industry ah share price premium rate ranking, Great Wall Motor ranked first in Shenwan Hongyuan automobile industry with a premium rate of 112%, significantly leading behind GAC groups 77% and BYDs 14% premium rate.

Another reason for the rapid rise of the stock price of Great Wall Motors may be related to the less buying of a shares. At present, Baoding innovation Great Wall Asset Management Co., Ltd., which is controlled by Chairman Wei Jianjun, holds 55.74% of the shares of Great Wall Motors; meanwhile, 33.6% of the shares of the company are listed in Hong Kong shares, accounting for 89.34% of the total share capital. In other words, only 10.66% of the buyable shares of great wall motor are in circulation in the A-share market.

In addition, Great Wall Motors is also held by many investment institutions. Among them, China Securities Finance Co., Ltd. holds 2.15%; Hong Kong Monetary Authority holds 0.28%; Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. holds 0.24%. After deducting these long-term institutional investors, Great Wall Motors can buy 7.99%, corresponding to the current market value of about 18.5 billion yuan.

Data source: wind

A private equity personage told interface news that a low bid usually means that it does not need to spend too much money to leverage the market value, which is easy to be hyped. Source: interface news editor: Yang Bin_ NF4368

A private equity personage told interface news that a low bid usually means that it does not need to spend too much money to leverage the market value, which is easy to be hyped.