Hot money attacks on supervision and extinguish fire again

category:Finance
 Hot money attacks on supervision and extinguish fire again


Nowadays, convertible bonds are no stranger. Similar to the market in March this year, hot money once again focused on the convertible bonds with smaller balance and made speculation.

The sharp fall in the first half of the year is still fresh in my mind. At that time, after the crazy speculation of convertible bonds, the forced redemption storm occurred, which led to the collapse of high premium rate convertible bonds, and the follow-up investors were forced to take over the offer. The hype of blind running still needs to go through the market test.

Behind the fierce speculation of hot money

In the recent market, some small stocks of individual bonds fluctuate greatly. Their performance often deviates from the regular stocks, with high turnover rate and strong speculation flavor. This is likely to be the speculation of some funds under the crazy short-term trading by using the convertible bond T + 0 trading mechanism to select some of the small-scale stocks that may have topics. On October 21, the director of fixed income of a public fund in Beijing told the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

According to the data on October 21, Wanli convertible bonds closed up more than 72%, with a turnover rate of 12588.91%; Blue Shield convertible bonds rose by more than 27%, with a turnover rate of 12436.26%; Jiuzhou convertible bonds rose by more than 20%, with a turnover rate of 3024.49%.

From the balance of several convertible bonds, the scale is about 100 million yuan. Among them, the balance of Wanli convertible bonds was only 63 million yuan, that of Blue Shield was 100 million yuan, that of Jiuzhou was 115 million yuan, and that of initial convertible bonds was 382 million yuan.

In fact, the 21st century economic reporter has noticed that there is an important feature behind the current round of convertible bond speculation, that is, some convertible bonds with hot concept speculation background are being selected as the battlefield for hunting by hot money.

For example, Blue Shield convertible bonds, its main stock (300297. SZ), is rising continuously due to the concept of quantum technology. According to the data, on October 21, the stock price of Blue Shield stock was up and down, and since October 16, the stock price of Blue Shield stock has risen for four consecutive days, including the limit on October 19.

Obviously, the price rise brought by speculation is also attracting more and more attention from ordinary investors. The reporter of 21st century economic report found that many investors discussed trading in the Blue Shield convertible bond stock bar. Some investors directly pointed to the concept of quantum convertible bond of Blue Shield convertible bond and actively participated. Some investors also lost money and cut flesh in speculation.

However, at present, the premium rate of Blue Shield convertible bonds has reached 177.59%. Earlier, Taijings sudden mandatory redemption of convertible bonds gave a heavy blow to high premium convertible bonds. After speculation, they went to chicken feather in one place.

Increase of circulation and supervision of fire fighting

This kind of speculation that is seriously divorced from the actual value is short-lived and will eventually return to the source of value. It is suggested that ordinary investors avoid the transaction of such individual bonds, and the risk and return are seriously mismatched. From the perspective of risk, it is suggested that investors should pay attention to the risk of individual bonds with high absolute price and high premium rate of conversion. The above-mentioned fixed income director pointed out in an interview.

In fact, recently several convertible bonds that have been wildly hyped by funds have issued risk tips one after another, directly pointing to the trading fluctuation risk.

On October 21, Blue Shield said that the capital market is affected by many factors, and the price of convertible bonds may be affected by factors such as macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, financial market liquidity, capital market atmosphere, short-term technical indicators and investor psychology. In general, the stock price is highly positively correlated with the convertible bond price, and there is no super high premium rate.

However, in recent years, the price of Blue Shield convertible bonds has seriously deviated from the relationship between the companys stock price and the Blue Shield shares directly point out that it has deviated from the reasonable value range. The reason is not related to the macro environment of the market, the industry situation and the operation situation, but mainly due to the influence of market funds. As for the concept of quantum technology defined by the market, Blue Shield shares also said that the company has not carried out market business in the field of quantum technology and has no relevant business income.

Keep away from speculation, for high price, high premium rate varieties, high turnover rate varieties also need to be cautious. A public offering convertible bond fund manager in South China said frankly in an interview.

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange also reminds investors to attach great importance to the trading risk of convertible bonds, and the convertible bonds with large increase should not be regarded as bonds with higher security.

Since last year, the issuance of convertible bonds has increased significantly, which has become the investment target favored by more and more investors, and the innovation of convertible bonds has become a hot topic. This month, China Southern Airlines issued the largest convertible bond of 16 billion yuan in the year; on October 21, Dongfang fortune (300059. SZ) also announced that it would raise funds by issuing convertible bonds to unspecified objects, and the total amount of convertible bonds issued this time would not exceed 15.8 billion yuan. The probability of the basic orientation is still relatively high, and the business conditions of enterprises are also improving continuously. In the fourth quarter, risk assets have the value of participation. However, with the rise of the bond market yield, the valuation expansion promoted by liquidity in the early stage is difficult to continue, and the follow-up needs to turn to the direction where the performance can be realized. It is more difficult to select bonds under the condition of high price. We can correctly understand the market fluctuation and pay attention to some reverse trading opportunities. Boshi Convertible Bond ETF fund manager Deng Xinyu said. Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ NF4425

Since last year, the issuance of convertible bonds has increased significantly, which has become the investment target favored by more and more investors, and the innovation of convertible bonds has become a hot topic. This month, China Southern Airlines issued the largest convertible bond of 16 billion yuan in the year; on October 21, Dongfang fortune (300059. SZ) also announced that it would raise funds by issuing convertible bonds to unspecified objects, and the total amount of convertible bonds issued this time would not exceed 15.8 billion yuan.

The probability of the basic orientation is still relatively high, and the business conditions of enterprises are also improving continuously. In the fourth quarter, risk assets have the value of participation. However, with the rise of the bond market yield, the valuation expansion promoted by liquidity in the early stage is difficult to continue, and the follow-up needs to turn to the direction where the performance can be realized. It is more difficult to select bonds under the condition of high price. We can correctly understand the market fluctuation and pay attention to some reverse trading opportunities. Boshi Convertible Bond ETF fund manager Deng Xinyu said.