Is Biden a double-digit lead over trump in a number of polls

category:Hot
 Is Biden a double-digit lead over trump in a number of polls


True transparent politics website reported that since the presidential candidates first debate on September 29, Bidens lead has expanded from 6.1 percentage points to 8.9 percentage points, and the support rate has remained stable at more than 51% in the past two weeks.

However, the presidential election is not decided by popular vote, but by the electoral votes of the States. In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton took the lead in the poll and won 2 million more votes nationwide than trump. However, according to the winner take all rule of electoral votes, trump won several key swing states and won more than half of the voters votes.

According to the results of a poll released by Reuters and Ipsos group on the 19th, Biden is 49% ahead of Trumps 45% in Pennsylvania, 3% smaller than the previous week; in Florida, Biden is 49%, trump is 47%; North Carolina is 48% to 47%; Arizona is 50% to 46%. Biden had the biggest advantage in Wisconsin and Michigan, both 51% to 43%.

Ipsos analyst Chris Jackson told AFP that on the eve of polling day four years ago, it was correct to predict that Hillary Clinton had a slight lead in the national vote, with the inaccuracy coming from swing states in the Midwest. One of the reasons is that the number of white residents with no college degree is less and less representative in the poll samples, and many of them support trump.

Pollsters also noted that compared with the previous election, this years survey results are more consistent: since this spring, Bidens average lead is no less than 4 percentage points. In 2016, Trump and Hillary Clinton crossed the support curve twice and won or lost shifted, showing instability.

In addition, some analysts believe that due to the highly polarized political atmosphere in the United States, there are fewer intermediate voters who have not yet decided to vote, so it is less likely that the outcome will be reversed at the last minute.

Its still hard to predict

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }Pollsters and election analysts cautioned that the poll results were not enough to accurately predict the results of the vote, and there were errors in the polls. The huge differences in voter registration across the United States make it particularly difficult to predict turnout. From past experience, Republican voters are usually more motivated than Democratic voters. In the final sprint, the two parties fought over who could mobilize more voters to vote. Affected by the epidemic situation, the proportion of voting by mail and voting in advance reached the highest level in history this year. We dont know what effect this will have, said Ipsos analyst Jackson. Many complex factors affect the voting and increase the difficulty of the result prediction. This campaign is much more intense than the analysis weve seen on Twitter and on TV, said Biden campaign manager Jane OMalley Dillon. Were still close to trump in the key battleground states that determine the outcome. Extended reading of Trumps bank account in China exposed netizen: paying more taxes than the United States. Trumps face was dignified after an interview. He left the netizens with a dignified expression: he looked very depressed and could not refute Trumps canvassing point of view: politics would be boring without me. Source: Beijing Daily client editor in charge: Qin Yuling_ NB17208

Pollsters and election analysts cautioned that the poll results were not enough to accurately predict the voting results, and there were errors in the polls.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the proportion of voting by mail and voting in advance reached the highest level in history this year. We dont know what effect this will have, said Ipsos analyst Jackson. Many complex factors affect the voting and increase the difficulty of the result prediction.

This campaign is much more intense than the analysis weve seen on Twitter and on TV, said Biden campaign manager Jane OMalley Dillon. Were still close to trump in the key battleground states that determine the outcome.