However, if we dont hold the 20 trading days with the biggest increase in the past 20 years, but still step on the trading day with the biggest drop, the investment return will drop to 176.17% and the annualized return of investment will be only 2.81%. Compared with the buy and hold strategy, the total return is only about 25% of the latters, which will lose more than 70% of the return in vain.
Not to mention those who buy at a high point, sell at a low point, perhaps even the principal can not keep.
Yang Peng of the Agricultural Bank of China Huili Fund believes that most investors hope to perfectly combine the top-down and bottom-up investment logic, but this will actually lead to conflicts. As long as a good fund product is selected from the bottom-up, it will be the best investment in the long run.
In the long run, timing is really not so important. After buying a fund, investors are always eager to know when the best selling time is. In fact, the fund manager will grasp the selling time for the foundation people, so there is no need to pay too much attention to it. He said.
In fact, the timing of domestic equity fund managers is more relaxed, and their advantages are reflected in stock selection. In the third quarter of this year, Huatai metalworking group used T-M, H-M and C-L models to analyze the performance of domestic public funds. The results show that domestic public funds generally have positive stock selection ability, and funds with good performance have strong stock selection ability.
They also use bootstrap sampling method to analyze the abnormal return of common stock funds and find that most of the funds excess return mainly comes from strength rather than luck, and the higher u03b1 (excess return), the less luck component.
Compared with stock selection, timing is more about testing luck and human nature. Many peers in the industry are focusing more on individual stocks, industry selection and position adjustment, rather than timing. Some fund managers told reporters.
The fund manager also said that timing is difficult, and that the double-layer timing of the fund is more difficult for the people. It includes both the timing of fund products and the potential inclusion of the investment timing of fund managers when managing products, and the uncertainty is higher.
It is a normal mode of thinking for the funders who have made money by buying funds this year. However, in the long run, few people can step on the trading point. Long term holding is actually a more convenient option, and the overall long-term return of partial equity funds is also good.
According to choice data, if October 20 is taken as the cut-off date, since 2010, the five-year arithmetic average net value increase and median of partial stock mixed and common stock funds are positive, and the number of profitable funds accounts for a high proportion of the total.
5-year related data of partial stock mixed fund and common stock fund
Zheng Kai, an analyst with Changjiang Securities, believes that few people can predict the short-term rise and fall in the future. The state of perfectly avoiding the decline, and the rise is all present is expected and out of reach for ordinary investors. It is more common to miss the rise in order to avoid the decline.
In his opinion, most of the time in the investment belongs to the cold stool waiting state, and it is not necessary to act all the time to prove his ability. What investors should do is to diversify their investment and buy a good target at a reasonable price. In fact, good investors, even if they choose and hold excellent targets, are dormant and waiting for the glory of their targets most of the time.
Theres no need to fret about poor timing, because in the face of statistics, its just a small probability of luck to avoid falling perfectly. We might as well try a more diversified approach to asset allocation, or leave the above problems to professional institutions. He said.
Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NBJ9607