Third quarter report fund position adjustment ideas bank and other undervalued plate Q4 is bullish

 Third quarter report fund position adjustment ideas bank and other undervalued plate Q4 is bullish

In terms of the current industry configuration, the top five industries are food and beverage 14.56%, medicine and biology 13.05%, leisure service 7.30%, electrical equipment 5.88%, and electronics 5.86%. The last five industries are machinery equipment 0.47%, mining 0.26%, textile clothing 0.24%, steel 0.23%, building decoration 0.22%.

Reduce warehouse medicine warehouse consumption, plate concentration is obvious

From the point of view of this years warehouse adjustment, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, consumption in the first quarter was hindered (mainly liquor), and institutions began to reduce warehouses, and at the same time began to increase warehouses for medical biology.

However, the food and beverage warehouse began to reduce in the first quarter, and it did not start to pick up until it was reduced to a low level of 8.81% at the end of April. However, it was still in a volatile trend. Recently, thanks to the 11th double festival, it began to rise strongly. At present, the position is 14.56%, and it is in the trend of further increase.

According to the calculation of CAITONG securities, the position concentration of active equity funds in some industries is relatively high, such as medicine and biology, food and beverage. The concentration ratio of some funds reaches 87.35%. The performance of a small number of industries is poor, and the positions of active equity funds are low, such as textile and clothing, architectural decoration, etc.

For example, the pharmaceutical and biological sectors with high concentration include China Europe medical and health a, Guangfa healthcare, huitianfu innovative medicine and Boshi healthcare industry A. according to the semi annual report of 2020, the market value of equity investment in the pharmaceutical and biological industry is relatively high, and its proportion in the net fund value is more than 70%.

In the electronic industry, there are noan growth, Galaxy innovation growth, Guangfa technology pioneer, etc. the market value of equity investment in the electronic sector is 13.55 billion yuan, 7.451 billion yuan and 6.477 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 84.06%, 59.89% and 25.17% of the net value of their respective funds.

The industries with low concentration include textile, clothing and steel. Among them, in the textile and clothing industry, China Europe consumption theme a holds the largest investment market value in this sector, which is 179 million yuan, but only accounts for 4.62% of its fund net value; in the steel industry, Jiashi Zhongzheng dividend index enhancement a holds the largest investment market value of this sector, with 334 million yuan, accounting for 5.36% of the net fund value.

Focus on the pro cyclical undervalued sector

According to industrial securities research data, last week, that is, the week after the 11th double festival, the largest increase in the allocation proportion was textile and clothing, automobile and leisure services, and the industries with more downward adjustments were non-ferrous metals, computers, banks, etc.

As the leading stocks of science and technology, medicine and consumer industries increased significantly in the early stage, under the situation of intensive disclosure of the third quarter reports of listed companies, performance has become the focus of attention of institutions. The direction of fund position adjustment and stock exchange has also been transferred to photovoltaic, heavy truck, automobile, pesticide and other high-profile industries.

Despite the recent market turmoil, most fund managers said that the market as a whole still maintained a high position, only fine-tuning on the industry and individual stocks.

Noan Fund said that it is expected that the phased adjustment of a shares may have entered the end. If we consider that a shares have accumulated a certain degree of increase since the beginning of the year, coupled with the warming up of overseas epidemic situation, investors have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the market adjustment is more reasonable.

Noan Fund pointed out that with the gradual confirmation of the restoration of the fundamentals in the third quarter, the early cycle industry has risen, and the fourth quarter can focus on the undervalued post cyclical sectors such as banks and real estate.

China Merchants Fund expects that the volatility of overseas markets will remain high in the fourth quarter. However, considering that the domestic economy is still in the recovery channel, financial and real estate valuations are still at a low level, there is not much room for A-share index to go down, and continue to be optimistic about the performance of undervalued value plate in the fourth quarter.

According to the analysis of the macro strategy Department of GDF, in the future, the overall capital expenditure of a shares is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. We can focus on the mid stream manufacturing and equipment industries and companies, such as mechanical equipment and electrical equipment, which benefit from the recovery of manufacturing investment boom.

Source: global finance theory editor in charge: Ren Hui_ NBJ9607