Recently, the precious metal market has been slightly silent, and the international gold price has been hovering around the line of 1900 US dollars / oz. In the view of market participants, the short-term market focus is on how the US election and fiscal stimulus bill will be hammered. In the long term, the price of precious metals mainly focuses on the real yield of US bonds. At present, the U.S. economy is still in the recovery period. The United States will continue to maintain loose monetary policy, inflation expectations are still on the rise, and the driving force for the rise of precious metals is still there.
Shanghai rubber price refreshes the high level of more than two years, what is the reason behind the rise?
Since the beginning of October, the price of Shanghai rubber has been rising with a strong upward momentum. During the night trading session on October 20, Shanghai Rubber major 2101 contract reached a maximum of 14975 yuan / ton, continuously breaking a two-year high. By the end of the night trading, it closed at 14945 yuan / ton, up 5.02%.
Hu Huachu, a rubber analyst at Anxin futures, believes that the reasons are mainly affected by the following factors:
The first is the impact of epidemic disturbance. After the national day, novel coronavirus pneumonia in Qingdao area has resulted in the economic activity in the region blocked. Especially as the center of Chinas natural rubber trade flow, the epidemic prevention and control upgrade in Qingdao has a certain impact on the rubber market.
The second is the disturbance of weather factors on the supply side. During the period of typhoon Lana, the rubber production in Hainan was affected by the high price of natural rubber, which also led to the slow recovery of rubber production in China.
In the first three quarters of this year, Chinas natural rubber production declined by nearly 20%, and the Ru futures price premium was relatively low, resulting in fewer new rubber warehouse receipts, and the majority of old rubber warehouse receipts. After the delivery of ru2011 contract, the old rubber will be cancelled, and the market will hype the new rubber warehouse receipts. Hu Huachu said.
Thirdly, the demand data of domestic natural rubber in the middle and lower reaches has been beautiful in recent years. In September, Chinas automobile production and sales volume were both double-digit growth year-on-year and month on month. Chinas heavy truck and excavator sales increased by 63% and 64.8% respectively. Chinas rubber imports increased by 58.1% year on year.
Finally, large-scale demonstrations broke out in Thailand and Indonesia, the main producers of natural rubber, and the geopolitical risks seemed to be on the rise.
On the whole, the downstream consumption of natural rubber market is strong, and the new rubber listing is affected by adverse weather factors, and the number of superimposed futures warehouse receipts is relatively low, providing beneficial support for rubber price in the near future. Zhang Xiangjun, a rubber researcher at founder medium term futures, said that there were strong rumors about the production reduction in the main production areas of natural rubber recently, especially the insufficient production of Shanghai Rubber deliverable products, which attracted market attention. It can be seen that the recent rise in the price of Shanghai rubber has increased and the market sentiment has increased. Among them, the price of No. 20 glue has supplementary signs, but the price difference with Shanghai glue is still expanding.
In terms of fundamentals, Peng Haozhou, an analyst at CCB futures, said that on the one hand, the abnormal climate caused the market to raise expectations of supply side production reduction. The La Nina phenomenon led to the continuous heavy rain weather in Thailand, and the price of raw materials in Thailand continued to rise. The formation of typhoon Sadr will continue to disturb the production of new rubber in Hainan. The purchase price of factories in Hainans main production areas will run at a high level. At the same time, the high cost and price will further separate the raw materials from the concentrated milk. The low quantity of delivered products will provide support for the rubber price, and the substitution index of Yunnan Province will not flow in Meet the expectation of whole milk increment.
On the other hand, the demand side is also strong. Tire enterprises performed well supported by export orders and matching tire market. As of October 20, the operating rates of all steel and semi steel tires were 74.69% and 70.21%, respectively, higher than 2.74 percentage points and 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. At the same time, the demand of the terminal market continued to recover. In September, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 150600, with a year-on-year increase of 63%. The sales trend was still stable and the production and sales were relatively smooth.
On the whole, Hu Huachu said that since this year, the supply and demand of natural rubber has been weak, but the margin has been improving. On the one hand, the total output declined and the supply recovery was lower than expected; on the other hand, the demand recovered better than expected. Looking at the fourth quarter, he believes that this is the best season of the year for the supply and demand pattern of natural rubber. The natural rubber supply side will enter the production reduction period from the high production period, especially from the high production period to the stop cutting period in China. However, Hu Huachu believes that the current rubber price has exceeded the level before the epidemic, and the supplementary rise market is about to come to an end temporarily. If we want to further open up the rising space in the future, we need to rely on a stronger driving force.
Peng Haozhou believes that the basic face good support, Shanghai rubber prices continue to be strong pattern, the market to see more logic is still established. However, the short-term price surge, hidden high callback risk, suitable for reducing the risk of position control. In operation, he suggested taking advantage of the callback to bargain long, not short.
Precious metal support remains, focusing on US election and fiscal stimulus bill
Recently, the White House proposed a $1.8 trillion aid package, an increase of $0.3 trillion over the previous amount. However, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, rejected it again on the ground that the stimulus was far from enough.. U.S. Treasury Secretary mnuchin said it would be difficult to reach an agreement before the election because there are still big differences between the Democrats and Republicans on some issues, but the two sides are making progress in some areas.
In dufeis view, the setback of the US fiscal stimulus bill may delay the recovery time of US inflation. Further easing of monetary policy will be in line with fiscal stimulus, but the two parties have been unable to reach a consensus on the stimulus bill, so the implementation of monetary policy has lagged behind, which will not be conducive to the recovery of inflation. He said.
The volatility of precious metals will intensify near the voting day of the US election on November 3.
On the one hand, judging from the support rate of the poll, the US presidential candidates completed the first round of debate on September 29. According to the data released by real clear politics, Bidens poll support rate has improved after the debate. As of October 20, the support rate of Biden in the poll was 51.3%, while that of trump was 42.4%. Bidens support led by about 9 percentage points.
At present, Bidens probability of winning the election is leading, and there is a trend of expansion. Bidens campaign platform tends to provide greater fiscal stimulus to the economy, which will lead to further monetary easing, which will be conducive to the upward movement of precious metal prices Du Fei said.
On the other hand, he also said that every time the election month approaches, the United States will face a surprise October, that is, unexpected news before the vote, leading to the reversal of opinion polls, is a greater risk factor.
For the price trend of precious metals, dufei believes that the support of precious metal prices is still in place, and it is suggested to wait and see in the short term, and the medium and long-term upward momentum has not disappeared. In the short term, the price of precious metals is concerned about the election situation in the United States. The market is still conservative about the election transaction. More funds tend to stay put and wait for the election results. In addition to the impact of the general election, the United States ushered in the third wave of epidemic, and US stocks also showed periodic decline, and the risk aversion sentiment of precious metals will rise again. Generally speaking, short-term precious metals are recommended to be long rather than long. In the long term, he said precious metal prices were mainly focused on the real yield of US debt. At present, the U.S. economy is still in the recovery period, the United States will continue to maintain loose monetary policy, inflation expectations are still tending to rise. On the whole, he suggested a short-term wait-and-see, but he also believed that the long-term driving force for the rise of precious metals was still there. Source: futures daily editor: Yang Bin_ NF4368
For the price trend of precious metals, dufei believes that the support of precious metal prices is still in place, and it is suggested to wait and see in the short term, and the medium and long-term upward momentum has not disappeared. In the short term, the price of precious metals is concerned about the election situation in the United States. The market is still conservative about the election transaction. More funds tend to stay put and wait for the election results. In addition to the impact of the general election, the United States ushered in the third wave of epidemic, and US stocks also showed periodic decline, and the risk aversion sentiment of precious metals will rise again. Generally speaking, short-term precious metals are recommended to be long rather than long.
In the long term, he said precious metal prices were mainly focused on the real yield of US debt. At present, the U.S. economy is still in the recovery period, the United States will continue to maintain loose monetary policy, inflation expectations are still tending to rise. On the whole, he suggested a short-term wait-and-see, but he also believed that the long-term driving force for the rise of precious metals was still there.