Over the past 20 years since the implementation of the price limit system for a shares, the hot money power represented by the price limit daredevil has always been the vane of market sentiment. Gem shares because of its small plate, easy to ignite emotions, has been limit board dare to die the most important plate.
On August 24, the growth enterprise market began to implement a 20% price limit. The upper and lower limits of the limit were widened from 10% to 20%. The 12 day 11 boards of Tianshan creatures are the demon stocks crossing the alternation of the old and new rules. Among the 11 boards, 8 boards are 20% of the limit. After the Tianshan creatures, the wind direction gradually changed.
Since the implementation of the 20% price limit for nearly two months, hot money people feel that there are three major changes in the playing board Ecology: one or two trading days have overdrawn the growth space, and the emotional duration has become shorter; the decline of the gems leading stock price has affected the main boards stock not to follow suit as usual; the one word board opening strategy of hot money relay has become more difficult. The hot money began to wait and see and think about new ways to play in the new form.
However, the difference is not only from the change of trading rules, but also from the fact that the periodic growth of GEM stocks is not small, and the valuation of GEM stocks has been greatly increased. In this context, the success rate of hot money in the market has declined significantly.
Hot money does not adapt
According to the monthly chart, the gem composite index (300102. SZ) closed down 4.08% in September with a turnover of 5.52 trillion yuan, the second largest month since the gem opened. Second only to Julys trading volume of 5.56 trillion yuan.
We lost money in September, and the sustainability is no longer there. Even the number of boards has come down. At the end of the year, we all closed our shares, a low-key Shanghai trading board guerrilla operator told reporters.
The gem index (399066. SZ) on July 13 hit a high of 2896.31, three months have passed, no longer standing on this high. Xiao Zhou, an investment manager of a private placement in Shenzhen, judged that this year may not exceed this point.
On August 24, the 20% limit on the growth enterprise market (GEM) was implemented. On that day, the growth enterprise market (GEM) closed up 1.98%, but then the index fell.
Several hot money institutions interviewed by the reporter all said that the changes in the price limit have made the funds feel unsuitable.
In the past, a big male tube was used for 3 days, and on that day, a small cycle of 4-5 days, leading to a 50% increase. Now that 20% of the trading rules come out, the two boards are close to 50%. In addition, the second board of the stock exchange will issue inquiry letters, which means that the tide will ebb as soon as the small cycle starts. This has disrupted the mood of the market. A hot money organization in Shanghai described to reporters.
At the beginning of the 20% price limit, the market sentiment was still quite high, but the beginning is the peak.
Taking Tianshan biological as an example, Tianshan biological (300313. SZ) started the first limit three trading days before the 20% price limit was implemented on August 24, and then pulled three limit boards. At that time, the gem did not implement the 20% limit.
From the 24th to the 27th, we continued to pull four 20% limit boards. Three days after the suspension, four more trading boards were pulled in five trading days. In just two weeks, the stock price rose from less than 6 yuan to about 34.50 yuan / share, setting a record of 11 boards in 12 Trading days, of which 8 were 20% limit boards.
Yu diamond (300064. SZ), the third-generation semiconductor leader, started after the new price limit. Its stock price rose from 2.78 yuan / share to 6.74 yuan / share in 11 trading days with 4 20% limit boards.
At that time, even if we were to play the early board, we could make money even if we rushed into the morning trading limit. I have calculated that the success rate is 99%. I made 50% of the highest ticket. Xiao Zhou said excitedly.
He told reporters, or miss the original market 10% of the market ecology, 10% speculation 4-5 days, in fact, the most in line with the law of speculation. Now, Xiao Zhou is a bit restrained.
After the peak, the feast is hard to come by
Those who have a good sense of smell have already realized that Tianshan creatures are the peak. After the peak, the feast is hard to come by.
Hot money has its own indicators to measure the heat of the market and make money effect. Among them, the number of linked boards, that is, the number of stocks with continuous limit boards on the same day, is an indicator to measure the hot spot sustainability; for example, 7t6b refers to 6 trading days within 7 trading days; 5t4b + refers to 4 limit boards within 5 trading days, and the + sign represents the 20% increase of the limit board.
Since the market peak in mid July, hot money has been active. After August 24, the above indicators have appeared the market cooling signal.
According to the daily statistics of the media official account created by a floating capital organization, after August 24th, the number of A shares in the whole market is maintained at ten digit figures. On August 3, there were even 46 stocks with even a board. In terms of continuity, the leading big brother with 9 shares in 10 days and 8 stocks in 9 days also came and went.
From August 25 to early September, most of the stocks on the board have dropped to single digits.
On September 8, Tianshan bio created 11 boards in 12 days (including 8 B +) and 11 stocks, which led to a slight recovery of the market. But after September 25, the market temperature gradually dropped to freezing point. On September 25 and September 26, the number of connected plates was only 1, and the maximum number of connected plates was only 3b, 2b, or 2B +.
In the eyes of hot money in the market, the growth enterprise market 20% of the price limit, making the duration of fund excitement shorter. This is only one aspect of the regulation of market sentiment. The impact of this new rule on the main board is that the leading board of the main board is no longer calculated according to the heat of the plate, but calculated according to the increase of the follow-up stocks on the gem. As a result, the plate cools first, and the leader still heads on the board. Once the leading board is opened, the hot money of relay is sure to lose.
The recent photovoltaic concept stock Star Technology (002132. SZ) is an example, from October 9 to October 13, three consecutive trading days one word board, 14 open trading limit, but then an instant opening plate, the deepest fall on the day of 3.55%, closed up 1.93%. After that, the limit for two consecutive days fell, and the funds entered the market according to the one word board strategy were deeply set. From the data of Zhou Long Hu list, it is said that Guotai Junan Securities Shanghai Jiangsu Road, where the two top hot money seats - Zhang Mengzhu are located, and the Shaoxing business section of galaxy securities, where the hot money leader Zhao Laoge, is located, is in the No.1 and No.2 shopping malls respectively, with a total purchase of more than 100 million yuan.
The market is quietly changing, and the hot money has been gradually withdrawn. Since September 22, he also felt that it was time to rest.
The index is pulling up, but the money making effect is weakening. Ive made a loss twice, so I know its time to take a break. Xiao Zhou said.
Deason shares on October 15 (Thursday) failed to be sealed after trading. Although a trading limit was obtained the next day, it was still underwater yesterday (October 19). In the view of the market, these are all signs of weakening risk appetite.
In recent trading days, the banking and insurance sectors have strengthened. According to market analysts, funds are being transferred to the bancassurance sector with lower valuation at the end of the year. However, the risk preference of hot money like gem is declining, which reflects that the willingness of market funds to participate in chasing market hot spots is decreasing.
There are many reasons behind this decline. Based on the interviews of the reporters, we are worried that the full implementation of the registration system will disperse the hot spots and funds in the market, worry about the impact of the US election outside the market, the lack of high-quality companies in the gem as a whole, and the adjustment of valuations. The more important reason is that the growth rate of gem stage has been very considerable. One year ago, the gem index was still around 1717, and reached 2900 points three months ago. The highest one-year increase is close to 70%. In the trading days since October 14, the number of even board stocks in the market is almost only 2, and the maximum number of even boards is only 3, or 2 20% limit. In his own trading book, Xiao Zhou checked the poor option in the market persistence option. The decline in risk appetite has been unusually severe. Rest, more is the helplessness of this segment of the market. Said Xiao Zhou. Source of this article: Guo Chenqi, editor in charge of first finance and Economics_ NBJ9931
There are many reasons behind this decline. Based on the interviews of the reporters, we are worried that the full implementation of the registration system will disperse the hot spots and funds in the market, worry about the impact of the US election outside the market, the lack of high-quality companies in the gem as a whole, and the adjustment of valuations.
The more important reason is that the growth rate of gem stage has been very considerable. One year ago, the gem index was still around 1717, and reached 2900 points three months ago. The highest one-year increase is close to 70%.
In the trading days since October 14, the number of even board stocks in the market is almost only 2, and the maximum number of even boards is only 3, or 2 20% limit. In his own trading book, Xiao Zhou checked the poor option in the market persistence option.
The decline in risk appetite has been unusually severe. Rest, more is the helplessness of this segment of the market. Said Xiao Zhou.