Second hand housing market is also surging. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, during the National Day holiday in 2020, Beijings second-hand housing market volume rose steadily, and the average daily turnover increased by about 80% year-on-year. The above institutions pointed out that in recent years, the demand for improved housing exchange has increased, driving the turnover of the second-hand housing market to go up year on year.
Since the 3.17 New Deal, Beijing property market has been adjusted for three years in the low temperature cycle. Now, is there a turning point?
The market for new houses is uneven
In the new housing market in Beijing, the vanguard of this wave of price reduction in golden week is restricted competitive housing. In the fierce competition of Yizhuang new city, the price reduction space of Zhenlong government has exceeded 500000 yuan, and the preferential housing resources of Greenland Harper Yunfei even reached 2 million yuan, and the discount of 8.5% has swept most of the limited competitive housing products.
However, in the pure commercial housing market, the performance of some typical projects is quite different from that of the limited competitive housing. Yihe Jinmao house sold 202 sets of houses on the opening day, with a value of about 5.06 billion yuan; rongchuang Xiangshan No.1 Hospital and Beijing Jinmao house have achieved good sales results.
In addition to the price opposition, the market recognition of the two types of housing is also quite different. Xuhui city of Fangshan has been selling at a discount since it entered the market, but the sales situation is still worrying. In Beijing, the phenomenon of unsalable is also very serious in several major plates represented by Yizhuang new town, Mentougou, Shunyi and Qinglong lake.
The reason is that the supply of these sectors is too large, the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand in the region is relatively serious, and the imbalance between supply and demand. Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo institution, said that in addition, these regions are not superior in geographical location, and there are imperfections in transportation and supporting facilities, which are not attractive to buyers.
In fact, this phenomenon has lasted for more than two years. From the second half of 2019, the pattern of land transfer in Beijing has changed quietly, from the former land blocks with limited competition dominating the country, and gradually transiting to pure commercial residential land occupying the core, and this change is the fundamental reason for the current situation.
Therefore, it can be said that this year is the first year of the return of commercial housing in Beijing. Guo Yi said: in hot spots, some newly built commercial houses have achieved good sales performance in terms of product creation, architectural aesthetics, spatial scale sense and the creation and improvement of details of room functions, which meet the ultimate improvement needs of high quality families.
At present, these residential projects are listed at a price of 12000 yuan higher than the surrounding restricted competitive houses. At the same time, they have achieved relatively good sales performance, passing different price expectations to the market and forming a new price benchmarking effect. Guo Yi believes that in this context, the price of the whole area is bullish, which will drive the speed of the elimination of some restricted competitive housing.
According to the data of Shell Research Institute, from January to September 2020, the accumulated supply area of commercial residential buildings in Beijing new housing market is 5.25 million square meters, up 8.8% year-on-year, and the accumulated transaction area is 4.75 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%; in September, the average transaction price is 46546 yuan / square meter, down 12% year-on-year. In the long run, it is in a stable fluctuation range.
Some industry experts told first finance and economics that, on the whole, the situation of oversupply has not changed, especially the supply of land in Beijing has been relatively large; the demand side is also relatively stable, and the restrictions on purchase and loan are strictly implemented, so that part of the demand for house purchase can not be released quickly due to qualification and capital problems.
Therefore, based on the current state of oversupply, some local hot commercial residential projects only set up local price benchmarks, which can not drive the overall market price up.
At present, the Beijing market pattern is distinct: the differentiation is serious, some of the hot selling projects have set up a brand-new price scale, while the other part of the project is kept at a relatively low level due to the location, quality and fierce regional competition environment.
Guo Yi believes that this situation may be alleviated with the elimination of projects under sale, but the mitigation period is relatively long, because the overall inventory pressure in these areas is relatively large, and the serious inventory pressure in the areas has formed a pull-down effect, offsetting the areas with rising house prices.
Second hand house transaction expected to reach a new high
Compared with the new housing market, the second half of the year, Beijings second-hand housing market is quietly warming.
Intermediary Wang Lin obviously felt the heat. October 5 that day, a customer contact about a villa in Fangshan area. It is more than 70 kilometers away from the center of Beijing. The residential area is surrounded by Wetland Park, which is worthy of the name of outer suburb. Since the listing of houses in May, no one has been interested in it.
She was pleasantly surprised by the unexpected visitors. This set is the lowest in the total price of the community. The owner is anxious to sell it and has been considering lowering the quotation. At present, there are 25 sets of second-hand houses on sale in the community, with prices ranging from 3.45 million yuan to 9 million yuan. There is no transaction record for the time being.
Wang Lin is just one of the participants in this heat wave. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, the total number of visits of Beijing brokers during the National Day holiday broke through 50000 times, with a significant increase of 29600 times compared with last year, ranking the first in China. Huilongguan, Wangjing and Shuangjing business districts have the highest popularity, ranking top 3 in urban business districts.
Back at the beginning of the year, the market was a different story. In the first quarter of this year, there were only 22231 sets of second-hand housing in Beijing, which reached a new low after the first quarter of 2012. Wang Lin was responsible for the business district for a time. Looking back, the market in 2019 was also moving forward at a low temperature, and the price adjustment behavior of owners was common.
However, from the second quarter, the number of second-hand residential online signatures doubled and rebounded, up 132.6% month on month. By the third quarter, the number of online signings reached 49671, up 6.6% month on month and 33.84% year-on-year. I love that our research institute summed up the current market performance as the best time since the 3.17 New Deal.
After the 3.17 New Deal in 2017, the volume and price of second-hand housing in Beijing fell sharply, and the market cooling was extremely obvious. However, in the past three years, the market in the second and third quarters of this year was equal to or even slightly higher than that of the same period in 2018, and the heat was relatively high in recent three years. I love my research institute.
What changes have taken place in the market from cold to relatively hot? In the view of the above-mentioned research institutes, although the property market has been impacted before, it will recover rapidly after the epidemic with the support of accumulated demand. In the second quarter, the transaction volume of the market increased sharply, and even the online signing volume continued to rise in the third quarter under the influence of the lag of online signature.
Guo Yi told reporters that the current price reduction and promotion in the new housing market has led to a rise in the overall market demand. Some buyers are willing to sell the old ones, and the market activity is significantly improved.
On the other hand, market expectations are gradually improving. Some newly listed commercial houses bring higher house price standards, and some community prices stabilize and heat up, which drives landlords to list houses and promote some buyers to enter the market. The two levels of supply and demand squeeze together to promote the activity of the second-hand housing market.
Feel the heat of the market changes, have buyers ready to move. If you want a house with a transaction price of less than 4 million yuan in Chaoyang District, and a house with a high rent to sell ratio, it is better to wait for demolition in the old community by the way. If you want to decorate the poor school district, you should invest only. On October 20, some buyers said in an intermediary platform.
It is worth noting that the current Beijing market is mainly based on rigid demand and improving the customer base. It may not be a cost-effective deal to earn the price difference and eat the rent in the short term. Some intermediary told reporters that because of the poor rental income, some owners intend to sell a set of Wangjing houses, but in the past half month of listing, the price has been reduced by 480000 yuan.
I love my familys Beijing regional data shows that the average transaction price of second-hand housing in Beijing in the third quarter was 56028 yuan / m2, down 1.90% month on month and 0.86% year on year, about 10% lower than the historical peak. The quarterly average price in the past three years has basically fluctuated around 56000 yuan, which is the most stable moment in history.
Considering that Beijings property market is out of the influence of the epidemic, the number of second-hand housing online signings in a single month has exceeded 16000 units for five consecutive months. Coupled with the year-end performance sprint, it is expected that the number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing this year is expected to exceed 160000, a new high since the March 17 New Deal. However, Guo Yi believes that this wave of market is just a small cycle in the slow recovery of the market. At present, there are more than 60000 sets of inventory in Beijings new housing market. At the same time, due to the increasing supply of new housing market, the circulating house supply in the second-hand housing market continues to increase, creating an objective market environment for the overall market inventory rise, turnover rate decline and house price stabilization. Shell Research Institute also said that the policy environment of the second-hand housing market in the fourth quarter may be further tightened, and the loan interest rate for house purchase will rise slightly with the rise of capital cost of banks; the markets seasonal resilience is not strong at the end of the year, and the transaction is expected to continue to fall in the whole quarter, and prices in key cities are generally flat. Source of this article: Guo Chenqi, editor in charge of first finance and Economics_ NBJ9931
Considering that Beijings property market is out of the influence of the epidemic, the number of second-hand housing online signings in a single month has exceeded 16000 units for five consecutive months. Coupled with the year-end performance sprint, it is expected that the number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing this year is expected to exceed 160000, a new high since the March 17 New Deal.
However, Guo Yi believes that this wave of market is just a small cycle in the slow recovery of the market. At present, there are more than 60000 sets of inventory in Beijings new housing market. At the same time, due to the increasing supply of new housing market, the circulating house supply in the second-hand housing market continues to increase, creating an objective market environment for the overall market inventory rise, turnover rate decline and house price stabilization.
Shell Research Institute also said that the policy environment of the second-hand housing market in the fourth quarter may be further tightened, and the loan interest rate for house purchase will rise slightly with the rise of capital cost of banks; the markets seasonal resilience is not strong at the end of the year, and the transaction is expected to continue to fall in the whole quarter, and prices in key cities are generally flat.