The Dow rose more than 100 points, why do big Morgan call us stocks or continue to callback 10percent?

category:Finance
 The Dow rose more than 100 points, why do big Morgan call us stocks or continue to callback 10percent?


The three major US stock indexes rose collectively

The Dow rose more than 110 points

Technology stocks rose and fell on the whole, but most of the leading companies still rose, with apple up 1.32%, Tesla down 2.06%, Amazon up 0.31%, Googles parent company alphabet up 1.38%, Facebook up 2.36%, Microsoft up 0.20%, Qualcomm down 0.09%, amd down 0.54% and Netflix down 1%.

Source: wind

Popular Chinese stocks rose across the board. Among them, Alibaba rose by 1.52%, Jingdong by 2.43%, Netease by 1.17%, Weilai by 1.16%, ideal by 6.83%, BiliBili by 2.82%, pinduoduo by 5.85%, baidu by 0.64% and Xiaopeng by 3.83%.

Source: wind

The US dollar index fell on the 20th, with the US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.41% in the day and closed at 93.0615 in the end of the foreign exchange market.

In terms of commodities, international oil prices rose on the 20th. As of the end of the day, the light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $0.63 to close at US $41.46 per barrel, or 1.54%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose by US $0.54 to US $43.16 per barrel, or 1.27%.

In terms of precious metals, December gold futures, the most active trading month on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose $3.7 on the 20th from the previous session to close at $1915.4 an ounce, or 0.19%.

European stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the FTSE 100 up 0.08%, CAC40 down 0.27% and DAX down 0.92%.

Source: wind

In terms of stimulus bill negotiations, the latest news is that a spokesman for US House Speaker Pelosi said Pelosi and mnuchin are closer to reaching an agreement.

Pelosi is optimistic about a bipartisan agreement. She said on Tuesday that Democrats and the White House are close to reaching an agreement. She played down the importance of the deadline set on Tuesday for reaching an agreement, suggesting that she hoped to complete the stimulus bill negotiations before the election. We want to put everything on the table and move on. She said.

According to foreign media reports, the two sides have narrowed the gap in the size of the aid plan. The White House is willing to increase the rescue fund to nearly $1.9 trillion, but this is still lower than the $2.2 trillion proposed by the Democratic Party in the house of Representatives earlier this month. Pelosis spokesman drew Hammill said both Pelosi and mnuchin were seriously seeking a compromise and the talks would continue on Wednesday.

Wall Street analysts tend to believe that, despite Pelosis optimistic stance, the likelihood that the US government will approve the spending plan before the November 3 presidential election day is becoming less and less likely. Even if the White House and Democrats can reach an agreement before the deadline, the bill still needs to be passed in the Senate. And even at the most optimistic and fastest pace, it will take another month for the stimulus package to really go into the hands of Americans and businesses who need it. At present, the market believes that if the stimulus bill can not be successfully achieved before November 3, the Democratic Party will not be able to introduce the bill once the Congress splits after the election.

U.S. stocks may continue to pull back 10%

In terms of financial reports, P & G and Lockheed Martin reported positive results before trading on Tuesday. On the whole, the third quarter results of American stock companies are good, but the stock index seems not to be affected. As for the reason, the British financial situation analysis, the S & P 500 index earnings above the hanging sword of Damocles.. As UBS admits, the S & P 500s earnings results depend largely on a range of uncertainties: the timing of the vaccines launch, the size and timing of a new round of fiscal stimulus, and the impact of US election results on corporate taxes.

Another reason is that prices have been factored into market expectations. The stock price has gone up for a round. In the case that the market valuation is too high, the threshold may be too high for the announcement of the financial report to promote the stock price to rise sharply.

Moreover, there may be very few buyers left in the market. With the bullish exposure of fund managers at an unprecedented high, given the rebound in the S & P 500 and the chaos that may ensue from the epidemic and the general election, they are not necessarily willing to risk putting more money into US stocks.

Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, believes a 10% correction is imminent. U.S. stocks rebounded from the end of September to the middle of the month, but in the past week, the S & P 500 index has entered the downward channel again. In Wilsons view, the downward trend may not be over. Wilson believes that the lack of fiscal stimulus, uncertainty about the final outcome of the election and the second wave of the epidemic are the main obstacles to the recent rally in US stocks. Combined with fundamental factors, technical factors and many uncertainties in the next month, the most likely outcome in the short term is that a further 10% correction from the S & P 500s high near 3500 on Monday will keep us stocks at the bottom of the 3100-3550 range. Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of China Securities Journal_ NF4425

Wilson believes that the lack of fiscal stimulus, uncertainty about the final outcome of the election and the second wave of the epidemic are the main obstacles to the recent rally in US stocks. Combined with fundamental factors, technical factors and many uncertainties in the next month, the most likely outcome in the short term is that a further 10% correction from the S & P 500s high near 3500 on Monday will keep us stocks at the bottom of the 3100-3550 range.