The Dow rose more than 100 points, why do big Morgan call us stocks or continue to callback 10percent?

category:Finance
 The Dow rose more than 100 points, why do big Morgan call us stocks or continue to callback 10percent?


The three major US stock indexes rose collectively

On Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. At the end of the day, the S & P 500 index was up 0.47% to 3443.12; the Nasdaq was up 0.33% to 11516.49; and the Dow Jones index was up 0.40% to 28308.79.

Source: wind

Technology stocks rose and fell on the whole, but most of the leading companies still rose, with apple up 1.32%, Tesla down 2.06%, Amazon up 0.31%, Googles parent company alphabet up 1.38%, Facebook up 2.36%, Microsoft up 0.20%, Qualcomm down 0.09%, amd down 0.54% and Netflix down 1%.

The US dollar index fell on the 20th, with the US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.41% in the day and closed at 93.0615 in the end of the foreign exchange market.

In terms of precious metals, December gold futures, the most active trading month on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose $3.7 on the 20th from the previous session to close at $1915.4 an ounce, or 0.19%.

European stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the FTSE 100 up 0.08%, CAC40 down 0.27% and DAX down 0.92%.

Source: wind

Stimulus negotiations will continue on Wednesday

The epidemic continued to accelerate the spread. The novel coronavirus pneumonia data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States showed that as of 17:30 p.m. Eastern time, 8258568 cases of new crown pneumonia were diagnosed in the United States and 220806 cases were dead, according to CCTV news. In the past 24 hours, there were 55889 new confirmed cases and 760 new deaths in the United States compared with the same time the previous day.

In terms of stimulus bill negotiations, the latest news is that a spokesman for US House Speaker Pelosi said Pelosi and mnuchin are closer to reaching an agreement.

According to foreign media reports, the two sides have narrowed the gap in the size of the aid plan. The White House is willing to increase the rescue fund to nearly $1.9 trillion, but this is still lower than the $2.2 trillion proposed by the Democratic Party in the house of Representatives earlier this month. Pelosis spokesman drew Hammill said both Pelosi and mnuchin were seriously seeking a compromise and the talks would continue on Wednesday.

Wall Street analysts tend to believe that, despite Pelosis optimistic stance, the likelihood that the US government will approve the spending plan before the November 3 presidential election day is becoming less and less likely. Even if the White House and Democrats can reach an agreement before the deadline, the bill still needs to be passed in the Senate. And even at the most optimistic and fastest pace, it will take another month for the stimulus package to really go into the hands of Americans and businesses who need it. At present, the market believes that if the stimulus bill can not be successfully achieved before November 3, the Democratic Party will not be able to introduce the bill once the Congress splits after the election.

Mcie, the chief financial officer of France, said that if the new round of fiscal stimulus measures in Paris would continue, as well as the new round of fiscal support for the French bank, there would be no need to see further financial support for the French economy.

U.S. stocks may continue to pull back 10%

In terms of financial reports, P & G and Lockheed Martin reported positive results before trading on Tuesday. On the whole, the third quarter results of American stock companies are good, but the stock index seems not to be affected. As for the reason, the British financial situation analysis, the S & P 500 index earnings above the hanging sword of Damocles.. As UBS admits, the S & P 500s earnings results depend largely on a range of uncertainties: the timing of the vaccines launch, the size and timing of a new round of fiscal stimulus, and the impact of US election results on corporate taxes.

Another reason is that prices have been factored into market expectations. The stock price has gone up for a round. In the case that the market valuation is too high, the threshold may be too high for the announcement of the financial report to promote the stock price to rise sharply.

Moreover, there may be very few buyers left in the market. With the bullish exposure of fund managers at an unprecedented high, given the rebound in the S & P 500 and the chaos that may ensue from the epidemic and the general election, they are not necessarily willing to risk putting more money into US stocks.

Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, believes a 10% correction is imminent. U.S. stocks rebounded from the end of September to the middle of the month, but in the past week, the S & P 500 index has entered the downward channel again. In Wilsons view, the downward trend may not be over. Wilson believes that the lack of fiscal stimulus, uncertainty about the final outcome of the election and the second wave of the epidemic are the main obstacles to the recent rally in US stocks. Combined with fundamental factors, technical factors and many uncertainties in the next month, the most likely outcome in the short term is that a further 10% correction from the S & P 500s high near 3500 on Monday will keep us stocks at the bottom of the 3100-3550 range. Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of China Securities Journal_ NF4425

Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, believes a 10% correction is imminent. U.S. stocks rebounded from the end of September to the middle of the month, but in the past week, the S & P 500 index has entered the downward channel again. In Wilsons view, the downward trend may not be over.

Wilson believes that the lack of fiscal stimulus, uncertainty about the final outcome of the election and the second wave of the epidemic are the main obstacles to the recent rally in US stocks. Combined with fundamental factors, technical factors and many uncertainties in the next month, the most likely outcome in the short term is that a further 10% correction from the S & P 500s high near 3500 on Monday will keep us stocks at the bottom of the 3100-3550 range.