IPhone 12 sells well, industrial chain welcomes 5g era, stock price ceiling opens?

category:Finance
 IPhone 12 sells well, industrial chain welcomes 5g era, stock price ceiling opens?


Mobile phone companies make complaints about their products, but they are still using the real money to support Apples new products.

According to media reports, as of 9:30 a.m. Beijing time on October 16, the number of reserved iphone12 has reached 150000 units in just three days, compared with 500000-800000 pre orders for last years iPhone 11 series.

Apples stock price has been continuously callback recently, and the performance of domestic industrial chain stocks is relatively low. However, analysts are still highly optimistic about Apple, and some domestic analysts say that the attractiveness of the iPhone 12 can be compared with that of the iPhone 4 and iPhone 6, and it is likely to become the most attractive iPhone since iPhone 6, so as to stimulate the accumulated demand for phone replacement in the past five years and end the declining trend of sales volume for five consecutive years. At the same time, the release of iPhone 12 will lead the 5g mobile phone change tide. Benefiting from the 5g exchange wave and Chinas huge demand for phone replacement, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of Apples industrial chain and mobile phone industry chain.

IPhone 12 sales may catch up with the best in history

Apples new iphone12 and iPhone 12pro are favored by Chinese consumers, according to data from domestic e-commerce companies and apple dealers. Since Apple began to accept reservations on October 16, as of 9:30 a.m. Beijing time, the number of iPhone 12 orders has reached 152737 units.

At 20:00 p.m. on October 16, the first batch of products of the iPhone 12 series were sold out instantly, and the official website of apple in China also collapsed.

In fact, a number of data confirm that iPhone 12 sales may exceed expectations. According to the analysis of CICC in the research report, according to the data on Apples official website, the delivery time of iphonexs and 11 in the past two years was basically 7-10 days, and some hot-selling color matching or high-capacity models needed to wait for 2-3 weeks. However, during the pre-sale period of the iPhone 12, the delivery time of the iPhone 12 has generally been extended to 2-3 weeks, while the 12pro has reached 3-4 weeks, a new high in recent three years.

In addition, overseas operators and channels vigorously promote the sales of iPhone 12. The United States is one of the most important iPhone markets. Historically, the strategies of American operators have directly affected iPhone sales in North America. This time, the U.S. operator launched the biggest promotion discount in history, which can deduct up to $800 for old for new, which is expected to effectively stimulate the sales of iPhone 12. In addition to the U.S. market, operators and channels around the world have taken greater efforts in promoting sales. Based on this, CICC believes that Apple itself is also expected to continue its more active promotion strategy since this year, and the promotion efforts in the peak season at the end of the year are worth looking forward to.

Many organizations judge that the sales of the iPhone 12 may catch up with the best iPhone 6 in history.

According to Kaiyuan securities, the first day sales of iPhone 12 series were bright, and dealers confidence in stock was enhanced. Due to the initiative to reduce the price of iphone11 to inventory in the first half of the year, Apple has become more cautious in preparing new products. On the first day of listing, online sales on the official website and distribution channels are in hot demand, and the first batch of products of iPhone 12 in Jingdongs self owned flagship store are sold out. The pre-sale data of the platform is optimistic. It is expected that in the future, domestic dealers will double the previous years stock, which will be close to 11 million units.

We believe that the reason for the outstanding sales performance of iPhone lies in the replacement demand of iPhone stock users and the lack of competitive products in the current market: the last round of Apple replacement wave appeared in 2017, which is just at the time point of replacement; in terms of market competitive products, Apple has made up for the shortcomings of 5g and camera scheme, and the domestic core competitors with the same price band are disturbed by trade friction and other factors, and new machines will be built in the second half of the year It was released later than apple, supporting its sales. Open source securities analyst Liu Xiang said.

CICC pointed out that since the high point of iPhone 6, iPhone shipment has been declining for five consecutive years, and the replacement cycle has been more than five years. CICC estimates that among the more than 1 billion global iPhone stock users, 72% are still using models in 2017 and earlier.

From the perspective of iPhone 12s 5g, appearance and other innovations as well as pricing strategy, we believe that the attractiveness of iPhone 12 can be comparable to that of iPhone 4 and iPhone 6, and it is likely to become the most attractive iPhone since iPhone 6, so as to stimulate the accumulated replacement demand in the past five years, and end the declining trend of sales volume for five consecutive years. CICC pointed out in the research report.

Will stock prices continue to rise?

In fact, Apples recent stock price performance is not brilliant, especially after the launch of new products, the companys share price has been retraced for several consecutive days. By the end of the 20th, Apple was at $115.98/share, which was $22 lower than the previous high.

The performance of domestic apple industry chain is also low. On October 13, Lance technology had a long upper film line. Although the companys share price rose by 3.04% on October 20, it was still a long way from the intraday high on the 13th. The trend of leading industrial chains such as lucent precision and gol shares was almost the same.

Huatai Securities pointed out in the analysis that, considering Apples new product innovation ability and market share promotion space, apple industrial chain is still the preferred configuration plate at present. New product releases such as 5giphone and homepod Mini are expected to further enrich the industrial ecology, strengthen brand stickiness, accelerate the sales growth of various products, and bring sustainable growth momentum to the supply chain. Thailand and China securities are more optimistic about the vertical layout of products and have stronger ability to accelerate the integration of global industry chain.

The optimism of Huaxin securities is more direct. Like CICCs analysis, Du Yonghong, an analyst at Huaxin securities, believes that the iPhone 12 is expected to create the same sales miracle as the iPhone 4 and iPhone 6.

In 2020, the construction of Chinas 5g infrastructure will be accelerated, many cities have achieved 5g network coverage, and the construction of global 5g network is also in rapid progress. We judge that the release of Apple iPhone 12 will lead the wave of 5g mobile phone replacement. In the past decade, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 6 series have created a miracle in Apples sales history, according to Du. The iPhone 4 was released in 2010 and the iPhone 6 series was released in 2014. The reason why these models are hard to compete for is partly due to the production capacity problem, and the other reason is that they happen to catch up with the update iteration of Chinas communication technology. According to Du Yonghongs analysis, IDC predicts that in 2020, the global 5g mobile phone shipment will be about 240 million, and about 160 million will contribute to the Chinese market, accounting for about 67.7%. In the next five years, the Chinese market will continue to occupy about half of the global market share. According to IDCs market share of smart phones in the first half of 2020 at a price above $600, Huawei and apple are no match, with a difference of only 0.1% in market share, 44.1% and 44.0% respectively. Benefiting from the 5g exchange wave and Chinas huge demand for phone replacement, Huawei is optimistic about investment opportunities in Apples industry chain and mobile phone industry chain. Source of this article: Yang Bin, responsible editor of securities companies in China_ NF4368

In 2020, the construction of Chinas 5g infrastructure will be accelerated, many cities have achieved 5g network coverage, and the construction of global 5g network is also in rapid progress. We judge that the release of Apple iPhone 12 will lead the wave of 5g mobile phone replacement. In the past decade, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 6 series have created a miracle in Apples sales history, according to Du. The iPhone 4 was released in 2010 and the iPhone 6 series was released in 2014. The reason why these models are hard to compete for is partly due to the production capacity problem, and the other reason is that they happen to catch up with the update iteration of Chinas communication technology.

According to Du Yonghongs analysis, IDC predicts that in 2020, the global 5g mobile phone shipment will be about 240 million, and about 160 million will contribute to the Chinese market, accounting for about 67.7%. In the next five years, the Chinese market will continue to occupy about half of the global market share. According to IDCs market share of smart phones in the first half of 2020 at a price above $600, Huawei and apple are no match, with a difference of only 0.1% in market share, 44.1% and 44.0% respectively. Benefiting from the 5g exchange wave and Chinas huge demand for phone replacement, Huawei is optimistic about investment opportunities in Apples industry chain and mobile phone industry chain.