A real estate project is under construction. Photo by Zhang Bin, a reporter from China News Agency
Housing prices are unlikely to fall, and prices are generally stable and upward
In September, both new and second-hand housing prices rose lower month on month.
For example, the prices of new houses in four first tier cities rose by 0.4% month on month, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.3%, 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. Second hand house prices rose 0.9% month on month, down 0.1% from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.4%, 1.0%, 0.7% and 1.1% respectively.
In addition, the prices of new and second-hand houses in 31 second tier cities rose by 0.3% and 0.2% on a month on month basis, respectively, down 0.3% and 0.2% compared with the previous month. The prices of new houses in 35 third tier cities rose by 0.5% month on month, down 0.5% from the previous month; the prices of second-hand houses rose by 0.6% month on month, the same as that of the previous month.
Screenshot from the official website of National Bureau of Statistics
That the national housing prices into the ten thousand Yuan era does not mean that prices can not be pressed? No, lets see how it came about.
On the 19th, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that in the first three quarters, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide fell by 1.8% to 1170.73 million square meters. The sales volume of commercial housing was 11564.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7%.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that according to the sales amount and sales area announced by the National Bureau of statistics, the average price of commercial housing in the first three quarters was 9878 yuan / m2, up 5.6% year-on-year. In addition, from the perspective of single month data, the national average house price has broken through the level of 10000 yuan in recent three months. Basically, it can be considered that the national house price has entered the era of 10000 yuan.
He believes that in the treatment of the housing price index and the average transaction price, we need to pay attention to the difference. The housing price index eliminates a lot of interference and better shows the cycle of the property market.
With the rise of land prices, the possibility of a simple decline in house prices is actually small, and the housing prices are generally stable and upward. The reason why we think that the house price index in September this year is good is that the increase has narrowed, or it has not risen as much as before. Yan Yuejin said that at present, more than 10 cities across the country have issued new policies to stabilize land prices, which is worth learning from other cities across the country.
Prices in 55 cities rose month on month, led by Xuzhou
According to the third quarter real estate policy review report released by Shell Research Institute on July 20, Dongguan, Hangzhou and other places have issued regulatory policies. Since then, the central government and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development have twice convened relevant cities to hold meetings in response to the rapidly rising market heat. Since then, a new round of policy regulation of the property market has begun.
As of October 9, 15 cities including Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Shiyan, Wuxi, Shenyang, Changzhou, Chengdu, Changchun, Tangshan, Yinchuan, Shaoxing and Xuzhou have issued a series of new policies on real estate regulation.
Among them, 11 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities have become the focus of this round of regulation due to the high housing price index in July and August 2020. The core purpose of this round of regulation and control is to stabilize house prices and squeeze investment demand out of the market. Among the 11 cities, except Xuzhou, the growth rate of housing prices in other cities fell down year on year. According to the above report.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, in September, Xuzhous new house and second-hand house prices rose by 1.4% and 1.3% respectively, leading the countrys rise. Previously, on October 9, Xuzhou Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on further promoting the healthy development of urban real estate market, which clearly joined the army of regulation and control.
Then why does Xuzhou fall behind in the control of housing price growth? Is it not complete to copy? Many people in the industry agreed that time should be given to the policy.
Although Xuzhous housing price has risen by a high rate, Xuzhou has issued regulatory measures, which does not rule out the possibility of cooling down in the following months. Yan Yuejin believes that, considering that the price increase of the first-hand and second-hand houses in Xuzhou is the largest, objectively, Xuzhou should actively do a good job in house price control, especially for some second-hand houses along the subway line and with better degrees, and should guard against speculation by landlords and intermediary agencies.
Among the 11 cities that have become the focus of this round of real estate market regulation, many cities have set a good model for Xuzhou.
According to the report of Shell Research Institute, in September, the year-on-year house price index of six of the 11 cities dropped in the ranking of 70 large and medium-sized cities compared with August, in which Shenzhen dropped five places, and the house price index fell back to the level of one month (June) before the introduction of the regulation policy, and the future market is expected to be stable.
It can be seen that this round of regulation and control has achieved immediate results, and the goal of stabilizing housing prices has initially reached expectations. The report said.
Next, tightening policies in the property market may continue to strike while the iron is hot. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, as of the end of September, the number of times of real estate regulation and control policies in China was as high as 403 times. According to the change of frequency in recent months, there were 35 times in September, 32 times in August, 32 times in July and 31 times in June.
Information map. Photo by Wei Liang, China News Agency
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, said that the first half of 2020, the most relaxed regulation of real estate, has passed, and the tightening of regulation is inevitable. Recently, the trend of tightening the property market in many places has appeared. It is expected that at least 30 cities will introduce different tightening policies in the future.
Silver ten is about to enter the countdown. Will you buy a house? (end)