Yahoo News commissioned the public opinion survey company to conduct an online survey from May 16 to 18. The results showed that the support rates of Biden and trump were 51% and 40% respectively, which was the biggest gap in the national poll before this years election. Bidens lead was 3 percentage points higher than the previous week. The national public radio and Public Broadcasting Corporation (NPR) and the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also showed Bidens lead by 11 percentage points.
True transparent politics website reported that since the presidential candidates first debate on September 29, Bidens lead has expanded from 6.1 percentage points to 8.9 percentage points, and the support rate has remained stable at more than 51% in the past two weeks.
In this years election, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan are the contested places. Biden is currently leading in these States, but it has been difficult to widen the gap in the last three weeks, and the lead is sometimes within the polls margin of error.
According to the results of a poll released by Reuters and Ipsos group on the 19th, Biden is 49% ahead of Trumps 45% in Pennsylvania, 3% smaller than the previous week; in Florida, Biden is 49%, trump is 47%; North Carolina is 48% to 47%; Arizona is 50% to 46%. Biden had the biggest advantage in Wisconsin and Michigan, both 51% to 43%.
Some analysts believe that Trumps words and deeds have caused a lot of controversy, and the voters who support him may tend to be silent in the survey.
The last time trump was wrong, he said, in the polls.
Ipsos analyst Chris Jackson told AFP that on the eve of polling day four years ago, it was correct to predict that Hillary Clinton had a slight lead in the national vote, with the inaccuracy coming from swing states in the Midwest. One of the reasons is that the number of white residents with no college degree is less and less representative in the poll samples, and many of them support trump.
Pollsters also noted that compared with the previous election, this years survey results are more consistent: since this spring, Bidens average lead is no less than 4 percentage points. In 2016, Trump and Hillary Clinton crossed the support curve twice and won or lost shifted, showing instability.
In addition, some analysts believe that due to the highly polarized political atmosphere in the United States, there are fewer intermediate voters who have not yet decided to vote, so it is less likely that the outcome will be reversed at the last minute.
Its still hard to predict
Pollsters and election analysts cautioned that the poll results were not enough to accurately predict the voting results, and there were errors in the polls.
Affected by the epidemic situation, the proportion of voting by mail and voting in advance reached the highest level in history this year. We dont know what effect this will have, said Ipsos analyst Jackson. Many complex factors affect the voting and increase the difficulty of the result prediction.
This campaign is much more intense than the analysis weve seen on Twitter and on TV, said Biden campaign manager Jane OMalley Dillon. Were still close to trump in the key battleground states that determine the outcome.