In the first three quarters of this year, Chinas economy has gone through an extraordinary course. Novel coronavirus pneumonia suddenly caused Chinas economy to press the pause button and face the challenge of negative growth. Today, with the acceleration of the resumption of work and production and the resumption of business and market, Chinas economy first fell and then rose. In the first three quarters, the year-on-year growth rate of some major indicators has turned from negative to positive, the relationship between supply and demand has gradually improved, the market vitality has been enhanced, the employment and peoples livelihood have been better guaranteed, and the national economy has continued to recover steadily.
First of all, we will focus on the four indicators of macroeconomic regulation and control: economic growth rate, employment, prices and balance of payments. According to the preliminary calculation, in the first three quarters, the GDP increased by 0.7% on a year-on-year basis, from negative to positive. In terms of quarters, the first quarter fell by 6.8% year-on-year, which was the first negative growth since there was quarterly statistics in 1992. Since then, it began to rise steadily, with an increase of 3.2% in the second quarter and 4.9% in the third quarter.
Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher in the Counselors office of the State Council, said: Chinas economy has now turned from negative to positive in an all-round way. The International Monetary Fund has just made a prediction and judgment that the worlds economic growth this year is negative by 4.4%, and that only one of the major economies in the world will maintain positive growth, that is, China.
Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the national economic comprehensive statistics department of the National Bureau of statistics, said: from the data, although the unemployment rate of college graduates aged 20 to 24 years old or above dropped significantly in September compared with August, it was still four points higher than that of the same period last year. Therefore, the pressure of this group is still relatively large, but the policy of continuous online assistance continues to help Help college graduates and help them to achieve full employment. For migrant workers, it will be helpful for them to promote flexible employment and encourage innovation by ensuring the main body of the market.
Stabilizing the hundreds of millions of market players is the key to ensuring employment and peoples livelihood. China has issued a series of policies to relieve the difficulties of market players. It is estimated that the scale of new tax reduction and fee reduction will exceed 2.5 trillion yuan in the whole year, and promote financial institutions to make reasonable profits of 1.5 trillion yuan to enterprises, and give various support to the industry enterprises affected by the epidemic, especially the small and micro enterprises with operational difficulties.
Liu Aihua said: more than 75% of small and micro industrial enterprises think that their business conditions are OK. From the perspective of capacity utilization, 67.6% of enterprises believe that the capacity utilization has reached above the normal level. However, if the field is further relaxed, the overall economy has not returned to the normal level, because most of the indicators monthly growth rate and cumulative growth rate have returned It has not returned to the normal growth level, so the sustained and stable recovery is still in the recovery process.
With the implementation of a series of measures to stabilize foreign trade, Chinas export has stopped falling and rebounded since April, and has achieved continuous double growth in import and export since June. In the first three quarters, Chinas total value of imports and exports of goods increased by 0.7% year-on-year, realizing the first years cumulative growth from negative to positive. In the third quarter, Chinas total import and export value, total export value and total import value all reached a record high in the quarter.
As we have taken the lead in getting out of the epidemic, returning to work and production, and restoring the economy, we are able to provide the world with a series of materials and various other industrial products to overcome the epidemic, Yao said. China has strong resilience, great potential, sound industrial chain and supply chain, and the intensity of structural reform on the supply side has also fully optimized the whole structure. All these have laid a very important foundation for Chinas export this year.
In the troika, consumption has been the first driving force of Chinas economic growth in recent years. Affected by the epidemic prevention and control, residents consumption recovered slowly in the first half of the year. At present, with the implementation of the policy of preventing and controlling the epidemic situation in China, we need to further accelerate the recovery of domestic enterprises from the situation of epidemic prevention and control and help the domestic market recover.
In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 27332.4 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year, but the decline rate was narrower than that in the first half of the year. Since August, the total retail sales of consumer goods have been increasing for two consecutive months, and the quarterly growth rate in the third quarter turned positive for the first time in this year. Objectively, the epidemic also led to a rapid growth of online consumption, becoming a new bright spot. In the first three quarters, the national online retail sales increased by 9.7% year-on-year.
Liu Aihua said: although consumer demand has recovered rapidly, so far, the pull point is 1.7%, and the cumulative growth rate is still down by 7.2%, which is still a very weak level. So from this perspective, I think we need to make more efforts to promote consumption growth.
This years 11 holiday, Chinas domestic market once again showed amazing consumer vitality. During the 8-day holiday, 637 million domestic tourists were received and 466.56 billion yuan of domestic tourism revenue was achieved. The average daily sales of key retail and catering monitoring enterprises increased by 4.9% over the same period last year. In the seven days before the long holiday, the box office of national films was nearly 3.7 billion yuan, which was the highest level of golden week in previous years. The recovery of consumption is accelerating the recovery of Chinas economy.
In the first three quarters, investment also showed a rising trend. This year, China adjusted and optimized the investment structure within the central budget in a timely manner, and actively supported the construction of weak points exposed by the epidemic. A number of two new and one heavy projects such as 5g, data center and other key public health infrastructure projects have been started. Especially, the rapid recovery of investment in high-tech industries has become a strong support for leading the high-quality development of Chinas economy.
After a sharp decline in the first quarter, Chinas fixed asset investment rebounded rapidly in the second quarter. In the first three quarters, Chinas fixed asset investment increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive for the first time in the year.
Yao Jingyuan said: at the beginning of this year, when the impact of the epidemic was most severe, the number of new projects started nationwide was negative 47%, and by the end of September, it was 14.6%. In September, 9874 projects with a total of 50 million yuan or more were newly started in this month. The whole investment has made an important contribution to the rapid recovery of Chinas economy.
While some traditional industries have been impacted by the epidemic, since this year, new technologies represented by cloud computing, big data and artificial intelligence have developed rapidly; online office, online education, remote consultation and other industries have expanded rapidly; and new models such as intelligent construction and unmanned distribution have been popularized. The vigorous new momentum will provide stronger support for Chinas high-quality economic development and make the pace of Chinas economic recovery more solid.