It should be pointed out that at the beginning of the construction of Shanghai Super factory, in order to assure people that it was not to transfer production capacity to China, musk insisted that the Shanghai factory was only to meet Chinas domestic demand, not to export to other markets. Last month, there were media reports that Tesla planned to export Chinese made model 3 to other markets, which Tesla also denied at that time.
Tesla is not the only car manufacturer to export Chinese made electric vehicles to Europe. BMW, one of its biggest competitors in the European market, has previously said that the electric ix3 models produced by its joint venture factory in Shenyang, China (BMW Brilliance) will be exported to Europe, while Daimler, another old European car company, will transfer its production of smart brand passenger cars to Hangzhou Bay.
Since the beginning of this year, subsidies for electric vehicles in European countries have continued to be large. At the same time, most countries have achieved purchasing parity. The economy of electric vehicles is obvious. The supply of electric vehicles is driven by laws and regulations. Automobile enterprises accelerate the introduction of competitive models to the market. Data show that in September, passenger cars in major European countries (Germany, France, Britain and other seven countries) continued to warm up, and the registration of electric vehicles continued to exceed expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 203% and a month on month increase of 73%. Among them, the UK and Italy are far beyond the average level, with a month on month growth rate of 303% and 100% and a penetration rate of 13%.
According to Zeng Yingjie, an analyst of Societe Generale Securities, the sales volume of electric vehicles in Europe is expected to reach 900000 in 2020 and 4870000 in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 33%; the penetration rate in 2020 will be 7%, and that in 2025 will be 24%, increasing year by year.
You Jiaxun, an analyst of China Merchants Securities, also believes that the sales volume and penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe in the next five years will be a process of continuous improvement. Furthermore, it is believed that the corresponding demand for power batteries will also grow rapidly. At the same time, the increase of single vehicle charging capacity and driving range will strengthen this process. It is estimated that the demand for power batteries in Europe will increase from about 36gwh in 2020 It will increase to about 200gwh in 2025.
Among them, in the European market, Chinas midstream high-quality enterprises have entered into the European mainstream automobile enterprise supply chain. With the continuous accumulation and improvement of automobile enterprises supporting experience and material system, and the advantages of Chinese enterprises in manufacturing cost control, it is expected that the domestic competitiveness will be further strengthened, and the related battery materials, batteries and electrical systems companies are expected to usher in long-term growth.
At the same time, the profitability of most sectors is relatively low, and some enterprises profitability is expected to return upward, which may reflect strong performance elasticity.
Global supply chain of major battery materials
Source: Science and technology innovation board daily editor: Yang Bin_ NF4368