According to the monthly analysis report on the development of Chinas housing market issued by the Institute of financial strategy of CASS and the research center of urban and competitiveness, Langfang (Yanjiao) as representative has fallen 36.9% from the highest point in April to December 2017, ranking the first in the country. The median price of house prices fell from 31879 yuan / m2 in April to less than 20000 yuan / m2 in November.
In the following years, the housing prices in Yanjiao were still depressed. In 2017, the upgrading of Langfangs purchase restriction policy was the main factor that led to the sharp drop in housing prices in Yanjiao. Some netizens have sorted out the house price changes in Yanjiao in recent 10 years. It can also be seen that after the introduction of the policy in 2017, the housing price in Yanjiao has entered a low ebb.
According to the data of shell network, the average price of second-hand houses in Yanjiao is 18000 yuan, and the average prices of second-hand houses in Dachang and Guan Yongqing are 16000 yuan, 13000 yuan and 10000 yuan, respectively. Bazhou is the lowest with a unit price of 9100 yuan.
Down payment of 500000 and floating loss of 1 million
To sum up, the probability of housing prices falling 40% from the top in Yanjiao is quite high, and more evidence also appears in the historical transactions of various real estate projects in Yanjiao. The reporter inquired about a real estate in Yanjiao, fuze Yuyuan, through the shell search app. At the end of April 2017, the price was 1.58 million yuan at 52ping, compared with 523 flat 84000 yuan in September this year, a drop of nearly 50%.
For the top to buy Yanjiao real estate, the loss is larger. Based on the 40% decline in house prices, assuming that an investor buys a house property (with a total price of about 1.67 million yuan) at the top of 2017 with a down payment of 30% of 500000 yuan, the current market value of the house is about 1 million yuan, and the floating loss of the book is 670000 yuan. In addition to the housing loans and taxes for more than three years, the total loss may reach about 1 million yuan.
That is to say, if investors pay a down payment of 350000 yuan to buy Yanjiao real estate at the top of the market in 2017 and hold it up to now, it will lose a million yuan.
Some agencies have changed their business to set up stalls to sell vegetables
Due to its geographical location closer to the main urban area of Beijing, Yanjiao stands out as the first brother around Beijing, and also becomes a hot spot for investors. In a short period of half a year, it has created a unit price of more than 20000 yuan to 30000 yuan, and a sword finger of 40000 yuan.
As Langfang city of Hebei Province issued two strict purchase restriction policies in March and June 2017, non local household registration is only allowed to buy one house, and three-year social security or tax certificate is required, so the real estate market in Yanjiao is freezing rapidly.
According to the statistics of Beijing Zhongyuan market research department, the volume of the residential market around Beijing fell in July this year. Among them, the decline rate of Yanjiao was the largest, with a month on month decrease of 62%. From the perspective of month on month average transaction price, Yanjiao saw the largest decline, with an average transaction price of 18800 yuan / m2, down 5% month on month.
This years situation is much better than the second half of last year. From July to December last year, the monthly turnover of Yanjiao was kept below 300 million yuan. According to a rough calculation of about 2 million yuan for a suite, there were only about 150 units sold each month last year.
The whole industry is facing the impact, some intermediary stores are closed, and even some real estate agents have changed their jobs to set up stalls to sell vegetables.
Now, in the real estate intermediary market of Yanjiao, the closing rate of shops is more than 50%, and the turnover rate of employees is more than 70%. It is no exaggeration to describe the current employment environment with difficulty.
Housing prices rise around Shenzhen
Senior real estate industry insiders said that the soaring house prices without industry and population support are castles in the air. In fact, the soaring housing prices around Beijing, led by Yanjiao, are all caused by the overflow of Beijings demand. The industrial structure and population resources of the surrounding Beijing area are difficult to support the high housing prices.
As the leader of the North-South economy, Beijing leads the correction of the property market around Beijing, while Shenzhen leads the partners in Shenzhen metropolitan area to set new house prices frequently.
The National Bureau of Statistics website recently released the sales price changes of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August 2020. According to the data, in August, Huizhous new house prices rose by 1.9% month on month, ranking the first in China, and Guangzhous second-hand house prices rose by 1.7% month on month, ranking first in China.
Second hand housing rose even more. According to the national housing price data sponsored by China Real Estate Association, the average price of second-hand housing in Dongguan reached 20184 yuan in September, up 31.43% year-on-year, ranking the first in the country; Shenzhens average price of second-hand housing reached 75588 yuan, up 16.87% year-on-year, the eighth in China; the average price of second-hand housing in Guangzhou was 38774 yuan, up 14.47% year-on-year, the 15th in China; and the average price of second-hand housing in Huizhou and Zhuhai 56% and 2. 56% respectively. In Shenzhen City, only Zhongshan house price fell, a year-on-year drop of 1.35%, but still beat the national average level. Data show that the median price rise in September was - 2.28%.
Industry and population aggregation are the core driving force of housing price rise. Beijing, Tianjin and Jidu City, represented by Beijing, is facing the pressure of economic downturn, except for Beijings unique economy. Last year, Tianjins GDP growth rate was only 4.8%, far lower than the national level. The GDP of Hebei Province has been growing below 7% for six consecutive years. In terms of population, Beijings population has been flowing out for four consecutive years, while Tianjins population has not increased for four years.
In contrast, Guangdongs GDP growth rate reached 8% in 2015, and exceeded 7.5% in 2016 and 2017. GDP growth has declined in recent two years, with growth rates of 6.8% and 6.2% respectively. The performance of Shenzhen, the leader in the first half of this year, is even more impressive, and GDP growth has returned to normal. In terms of population, Guangdong has become the most populous province in China, and its population attraction ranks first in China. In recent years, the population has continued to flow in substantially, and the population has increased by more than one million for five consecutive years. Source: Securities Times editor in charge: Wang Wenhua_ NF5982
In contrast, Guangdongs GDP growth rate reached 8% in 2015, and exceeded 7.5% in 2016 and 2017. GDP growth has declined in recent two years, with growth rates of 6.8% and 6.2% respectively. The performance of Shenzhen, the leader in the first half of this year, is even more impressive, and GDP growth has returned to normal. In terms of population, Guangdong has become the most populous province in China, and its population attraction ranks first in China. In recent years, the population has continued to flow in substantially, and the population has increased by more than one million for five consecutive years. (Chen Jiannan, databao)