8 months to earn 1 month lost! Do you want to leave? How to operate in October

category:Finance
 8 months to earn 1 month lost! Do you want to leave? How to operate in October


Zhongzhengjun interviewed a number of retail investors, and generally reflected that it was difficult to make money in September. Many investors had lost the profits made in the early period of the year in September, while the retail investors who entered the market after July were easy to be caught.

Source: stock bar

Making money is hard to make complaints about

Some investors said that it lost 160000 yuan in September. Some netizens commented that 150000 can choose a good car.

Some retail investors lost a lot of real gold and silver when they first entered the sea.

Some netizens said that the short position in September finally won the market.

Source: stock bar

Some investors pointed out that if investors enter the market after July 6, they may lose money before the national day, because the index fell by 1.7% in the same period, and most retail investors cant beat the index.

Trend of Shanghai Composite Index since July 6

Source: Galaxy Securities Trading Software

In addition to entering the market at the wrong time, information is at a disadvantage, most retail investors have a hindsight of the market style. A lot of retail investors understand what is institutional conglomeration and structural market, and rush to buy Apple concept stocks and pork leading stocks, and encounter the loose callback situation of group stocks. For example, muyuan shares closed at 74 yuan / share, down more than 25% from the high of 99.01 yuan / share since July.

Why does the market adjust in the near future?

Zhao Xi, general manager of CITIC Trusts financial market department, said there were two main reasons for the recent market adjustment. One is the tight margin of funds. Since the end of April, the Central Bank of China and the worlds major central banks have moderated their efforts to hedge against the new epidemic. The tightening of capital margin will first form pressure on bonds, and then will be transmitted to the equity market. The liquidity margin is tight, and growth stocks are more sensitive to capital than value stocks, so the adjustment is the deepest, which also leads to the collapse of the group and style switching. The second is the decline of risk preference. Previously, the market has digested the expectation of economic recovery in advance to a certain extent, and there is a demand for consolidation and digestion in the market. High frequency data show that the recovery slope of some economic indicators has begun to flatten. In addition, the European epidemic situation has been on the rise since autumn, resulting in the fall of risk preference.

Top 10 gainers and losers

Compared with overseas markets, as the epidemic situation was first controlled, the economy has recovered significantly since the second quarter, and the performance of a shares in the third quarter is better than that of other overseas markets.

Photo source: Fortune Oriental, as of September 30

However, the market went down sharply in September. Wind data showed that among the 28 Shenwan industries, according to the arithmetic average method, only the military industry recorded positive income in September, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and food and beverage sectors all fell by more than 10% in September.

In terms of specific companies, the stocks with the highest growth rate in September are still mainly concentrated in new stocks, and half of the top ten stocks are new stocks listed in September. In addition, some demon stocks such as Yu diamond also ranked among the top ten bulls.

Data source: wind

Among the top ten stocks with the largest decline, Fengfeng retreated with a drop of more than 70%. It was once a glorious scene, but now it has gone to the delisting stage, among which the drastic changes are deplorable.

Data source: wind

Caution in early October

Some investors believe that it is appropriate to wait and see in early October. The dystocia of US fiscal stimulus measures and the outbreak of the second wave of epidemic in Europe and the United States have brought great uncertainty to the peripheral market.

Zhao Xi pointed out that we can wait and see before early October. The variables of the US election may increase market volatility, but in the medium and long term, opportunities outweigh risks.

China Merchants Bank believes that the bond market interest rate in October may be phased repair, but the volatility will also increase. In the stock market, the current index is in the state of valuation adjustment. Although the short-term performance is weak, it is judged that under the background of gradual recovery of fundamentals, the downward space of the index is limited. Strategically, we can focus on the potential opportunities of some cyclical industries and the left opportunities of medium and long-term mainline industries represented by technology and consumption industries. In October, CSCI was optimistic about financial cycle stocks, and its allocation theme in October was allocation ideas under market shock. The market correction since mid August has ended, and the market will enter the process of periodical recovery in shock. This process is supported by both economic fundamentals and liquidity, and the upward trend at this stage is sustainable. Economic recovery is still the main line, and financial cycle stocks continue to dominate. Zhao Xi said that in the middle and late October, although the market will fluctuate greatly, it should be able to actively layout. The overall style may return to technology and growth stocks. Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of China Securities Journal_ NF4425

China Merchants Bank believes that the bond market interest rate in October may be phased repair, but the volatility will also increase. In the stock market, the current index is in the state of valuation adjustment. Although the short-term performance is weak, it is judged that under the background of gradual recovery of fundamentals, the downward space of the index is limited. Strategically, we can focus on the potential opportunities of some cyclical industries and the left opportunities of medium and long-term mainline industries represented by technology and consumption industries.

In October, CSCI was optimistic about financial cycle stocks, and its allocation theme in October was allocation ideas under market shock. The market correction since mid August has ended, and the market will enter the process of periodical recovery in shock. This process is supported by both economic fundamentals and liquidity, and the upward trend at this stage is sustainable. Economic recovery is still the main line, and financial cycle stocks continue to dominate.

Zhao Xi said that in the middle and late October, although the market will fluctuate greatly, it should be able to actively layout. The overall style may return to technology and growth stocks.