Trumps illness has become the focus, and the suspense of fiscal stimulus remains to be solved

 Trumps illness has become the focus, and the suspense of fiscal stimulus remains to be solved

According to CCTV news report, on October 4 local time, the medical team of President trump said at a medical conference that Trumps condition was continuously improving. White House doctor Sean Conley said the president moved to Walter Reed Medical Center for treatment on the 2nd because Trumps symptoms developed rapidly from the night of the 1st to the morning of the 2nd, with a high fever and hypoxia, and blood oxygen dropped to less than 94%. Conley said that although trump was very determined that he did not need oxygen, the team took about an hour of oxygen therapy on the 2nd. Conley also confirmed to reporters that the presidents oxygen saturation dropped for the second time on the 3rd. In response to two drops in oxygen saturation, doctors gave trump dexamethasone, a steroid.

Another member of Trumps medical team said the president was no longer complaining about shortness of breath, but was walking around..

Trump said in a four minute social media video on the night of the 3rd that he felt much better and thought he would be back soon..

Last week, the U.S. Congress made positive progress in negotiations on fiscal stimulus. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Treasury Secretary mnuchin communicated on the stimulus bill for several consecutive days. The house of Representatives approved the second round of $2.2 trillion economic stimulus plan proposed by Democrats on the 1st, but it is difficult to pass the plan in the Senate, which has a majority of Republicans. Pelosi said after a recent meeting with Mr. mnuchin that the price difference between the two sides was still hundreds of billions of dollars, but she was optimistic about reaching an agreement.

At the same time, market focus is turning to the Feds September meeting minutes released on Thursday, Beijing time, after the Fed has made it clear that interest rates will be close to zero by 2023, until labor market conditions reach a level consistent with the Feds view of employment maximization, and inflation rises to 2%, and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for a period of time.. Given many signs that the economic recovery is losing momentum, the Fed may have discussed options for increasing asset purchases. Prior to that, US Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell will address the economic outlook at the NABE online annual meeting, which is worthy of investors attention.

In terms of data, the recovery of the employment market is slowing down. According to the US employment report in September, 661000 new non farm jobs were added, only half of the scale in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9%. Although the unemployment rate of the first four weeks is still lower than the critical level of 1 million in the first four weeks, it is still far lower than that of the first four weeks. In addition, the ISM non manufacturing index of the United States in September, Markits final value of service industry and composite PMI in September, and trade account in August are also worth noting.

Crude oil and gold

International oil prices have fallen for the second consecutive week, and the impending epidemic is hitting the already weak recovery momentum of the energy market. WTI crude fell 7.6% to $37.01/barrel, while Brent crude fell 7.9% to $38.91/barrel.

In addition to epidemic factors, the potential rise in supply is also weighing on investor confidence. Libyas oil company began to gradually resume production last week as the army lifted its eight month blockade of energy facilities. Production activity in the United States is also picking up, with oil service giant Baker Hughes data showing that domestic active drilling platforms have rebounded for the third consecutive week.

Marco dunand, founder and CEO of mercuria energy group, a trader, said global oil markets would not be able to absorb the impact of planned increases in OPEC + member states as demand remained weaker than expected. According to the schedule, OPEC is scheduled to hold a plenary meeting on December 1 to decide whether to adjust the production reduction agreement from January 2021, from the current quota of 7.7 million barrels per day to 5.5 million barrels per day.

There is a high probability that gold prices will rise in the future, especially because of the impending US election and investors want to protect themselves from this major risk event, avatrade analyst Naeem Aslam wrote in the report.

Britain and Europe open high level talks

Speaking at a video conference held by the European Parliaments economic and Monetary Affairs Committee last week, ECB president Christine Lagarde said the ECB is ready to adopt more monetary policies to stimulate economic recovery if necessary, as the economic outlook faces uncertainty due to the new crown epidemic. She believes that the euro zone economic recovery is far from complete, consumer spending sentiment is cautious, and companies are not willing to invest.

The ninth round of negotiations on the future relationship between the EU and the UK ended in Brussels last week. EU chief negotiator Barnier said that the two sides have made new positive progress on issues such as aviation safety and police judicial cooperation, while they are weak in personal data protection and climate change commitments. In addition, several major concerns of the European Union remain the major differences between the two sides. Robert Frost, the chief representative of brexit negotiations, also said that there was a risk that the differences in fisheries could not be narrowed down.

British Prime Minister Johnson and European Commission President Frederick von der lain had a phone call over the weekend and high-level talks between the two sides will continue in the next two weeks to seek a breakthrough before October 15. JP Morgan believes that although the substance of any agreement is very limited and will bring costs to the UK, it is more likely that the UK and Europe can reach a brexit trade agreement than not, in terms of losing access to the EU market, the cost of regulatory autonomy to the UK will certainly be very high. According to the report.

Watch this week

Alibaba will buy no more than 10% of the shares of duty-free retailer dufry. Japanese stock market goes crazy. Local bank shares soar and fall sharply. Fonterra sold 2.5 billion yuan. Chinese ranch group Yili and Sanyuan take over. Source: editor in charge of Finance and Economics: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619