Why is the war between Azerbaijan and Armenian doomed to step on the brake?

category:Military
 Why is the war between Azerbaijan and Armenian doomed to step on the brake?


The Azerbaijani Armenian conflict, which lasted nearly a week, continues.

A few days ago, Azerbaijani president Aliyev said that there is evidence that Middle East armed elements wearing Armenian military uniform participated in the fighting.

Who is it? The answer is obvious.

Looking at the situation of the conflict, it can be described as the continuation of the war in 1991. Although the two countries signed a cease-fire agreement at that time, it was still difficult to stifle ethnic hatred and territorial disputes. The Asian and Arab political circles turned the matter into a populist cash machine to carry out political struggle and large-scale network audit, and tried to cover up poor governance and economic problems by national hatred. This years frequent conflicts and scale escalation are not only driven by historical and other structural factors, but also severely damaged the economies of the two countries, giving rise to the need to divert domestic attention.

On the ridge of the South Caucasus, big countries are located here, and small countries retinue survive. Although the fire of war bears the hope and blood of the nation, it is often a means to achieve political ends, rather than an end. The reason why the Asian Arab conflict has been recurring is related to the unwillingness of major powers to intervene and change the status quo. However, due to the withdrawal and persuasion of external forces, the scale of previous conflicts has not broken through the critical point, and it is difficult to return to the tragic situation of full-scale war in the past.

Historical Echo of Naka dispute

From a historical perspective, the recent pattern of Asian Arab exchange of fire can be traced back to 1988, the end of the Soviet Union. At that time, the riots between Armenian and Azerbaijani cities were gradually rising, and a series of conflicts gradually rose to full-scale war when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Although the two sides finally signed the Bishkek protocol in 1994 with Russian mediation, it was still difficult to stop the recurrence of small-scale conflicts.

Since 2008, there has been a brief exchange of fire between Asia and Afghanistan almost every two years. In 2020, there will be a double shot. In July and September, military conflicts broke out one after another. The reason why the two countries have been fighting over the years is the unresolved historical account: the dispute over the sovereignty of the Naka region.

Nagorno Karabakh, also known as Nagorno Karabakh, is a mountainous area of 4400 square kilometers (1700 square miles) with a population of 145000. From the legal point of view, this place is located in the territory of Azerbaijan, which is internationally recognized as the territory of Afghanistan. However, from the perspective of political reality, the real ruler here is not the Azerbaijani government, but the Republic of artsakh supported by Armenian, and its population is almost all Armenian. The reason why there is such an embarrassing situation is closely related to the geography and history of the Caucasus.

Located at the intersection of Europe and Asia, the Caucasus has a mountainous terrain and complex ethnic distribution. Since ancient times, it has been the political ecology of small kingdoms and regimes. When human beings reached the empire era, it also became a buffer zone for the major empires. Taking Naka region as an example, it has been the sphere of influence of the Achaemenid Dynasty in Iran since the 5th century BC, and became a dependency of the Armenian kingdom in the 3rd century BC, and became a frontier corner of the Roman Empire in 36 BC. After that, the meaning of Islams conquest in the Caucasus changed to that of the Persian in the 7th century.

For a long time, Naka was influenced by the Armenian and Roman countries, and took Christian belief as the main part. However, after the introduction of Islam into the Arab Empire, it was also traversed by Turkic Muslim regimes such as Seljuk Empire, eldiguzids and other Turkic Muslim regimes for more than 100 years. In addition, many small khanates emerged after the western expedition of Mongolia, Naka and other Caucasian regimes went through the process of Islamization together with the Turkic population And gradually take root here. Since the 16th century, it has become a buffer zone for the two Muslim empires of Ottoman and Iran. In order to resist the rule of the Islamic regime, the Armenians of Naka started armed uprising activities, which attracted the favor of the empire from the Northwest: Russias Romanov Dynasty.

The process of Russias imperialist transformation was long, but it was during the two great emperors Peter I and Ekaterina II that Russia established the foundation of its expansion policy. The city of Astrakhan, near the Caucasus, became the headquarters of Russias Caspian fleet during the reign of Peter the great, which enabled the Empires iron hooves to defeat the Safavi empire of Persia in the Russian Polish war of 1722-1723, making the Russian flag float into the Caucasus. In the face of the situation of Islamic regime encirclement, Russia chose to support Armenians and Georgians who share the Christian faith as the local forces to stabilize the Caucasus. Some Armenians in Naka also responded to the imperial population policy and moved to Baku (the capital of todays Azerbaijani) and Jilan (one of Irans 31 provinces).

Since 1822, the Naka region (then known as khabakh Khanate), which was originally under the jurisdiction of the qajardinasty, was officially incorporated into the territory of Russia. According to the census data left by the imperial authorities in 1823, the Armenians in Naka lived in mountain villages, and their population and distribution were not enough to shoulder the burden of rule. Therefore, Russia also recruited Armenian nationals from Persia to settle in the country in order to expand Nakas Armenian influence.

Although such measures have been effective, they directly crowd out the living space of Azerbaijani, which has been living for a long time, and has accidentally planted the kindling of ethnic conflicts.

The past war established the attitude of great powers

The revolution broke out in Russia in 1905. The two peoples of Asia and Afghanistan in Naka took advantage of the chaos and set up their troops. They wanted to sweep the other side out of the area in time. Although the smoke of the war was dispersed because of the failure of the revolution, it made a comeback after the success of the revolution in October 1917. With the support of the Ottoman Empire, Azerbaijan announced the incorporation of Naka into the newly established Baku Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan, and accepted British support after the defeat of the Ottoman war. However, the Armenian rebel army was not an oil-saving lamp. It announced the establishment of the peoples Government of Karabakh in 1918 and began the process of armed struggle.

During the two-year bloody war, the two sides repeatedly changed the ownership of Naka area. It was not until 1921 that the Soviet army finally entered the Caucasus that there was gradually the appearance of peace talks. At first, in order to win over Armenian, the Soviet Union promised that the two disputed areas of Nakhichevan (mostly Azerbaijanis) would be included in the Asian version. Later, it did put it into action: on July 4, 1921, the Caucasus presidium of the Central Committee of the Russian Communist Party formally passed a resolution to realize its commitment to Armenian. However, this resolution lasted only one day and was forcibly rejected by Stalin on July 5, and both Naka and nahchewan were finally assigned to Azerbaijan.

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In Stalins view, any nation in the Caucasus would endanger the central governments control, so he would not hesitate to destroy his promise, but also let Asia and Afghanistan consume each other here. In addition, under the prospect of the expansion of the Communist International, the Soviet Union intended to win over Turkey to avoid becoming a bridgehead of the United States against communism. Therefore, Stalins partiality towards Azerbaijan actually implied a low-key olive branch to Turkey u3002

However, the state of high-pressure sealing in the central government has not been sustained. After the death of Stalin in 1953, the dispute over Nagorny Karabakh arose again and again. Armenian repeatedly asked the Soviet Union to divide Naka (then known as Nagorny Karabakh Autonomous Prefecture, nkao) into Armenian territory, or at least to separate it from Azerbaijani control. In 1988, the nkao government launched an informal referendum to demand the return of Armenian, but it was rejected by Azerbaijan and Moscow. As a result, ethnic cleansing began to take place in various cities. The two ethnic groups slaughtered each other, and the Soviet army came again to pacify the rebellion. But this time, the results are not as good as in the past, when the Soviet Union was at the end of its tether and could not protect itself.

In 1991, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Asia and Afghanistan seemed to be out of control, and the conflict between Naka and Afghanistan rose to the level of full-scale war. Armenian is assisted by mercenaries from Russia and other CIS countries, while Azerbaijan is supported by holy soldiers from Afghanistan, Chechnya, Arabia, Iran and Turkey, and even hundreds of Russian officers come to help. The conflict between the two sides became more and more fierce, and the Armenian army even attacked the big city of Afghanistan outside Naka. In addition, during the fierce war, both countries carried out ethnic cleansing on the people of the other side in their territory, resulting in the displacement of millions of refugees and their outflow from abroad.

Since the situation is out of control, many countries around have been on pins and needles, demanding a cease-fire and peace talks between the two sides. Iran and Turkey are particularly nervous. Both countries have received many refugees. On the other hand, they are also worried about the impact of the war on their homeland, so they have warned Armenian to stop expanding the front. In September 1993, Turkey increased troops on the border with Armenian, and warned Armenian to withdraw unconditionally from Azerbaijan immediately; Iran also conducted military exercises near nahchewan, and even proposed to establish a 20 kilometer deep security zone along the border between Iran and Azerbaijan to accommodate refugees and buffer the fire, just like Turkeys current plan in northern Syria.

Compared with the timidity of Tui, Russia obviously has more room to move. Although the Asian Arab war also spread to the north Caucasus, Russia, which is in the economic shock, is aiming at the oil interests of Azerbaijan. Since the war situation deteriorated in 1993, Azerbaijan has been surprised that if it does not fall back to Moscow, the Armenian army will march all the way into Baku, the capital.

After a few thoughts, Argentina finally lost its faith to Russia and promised to plan a Caspian Sea oil pipeline from Baku to Russia. Only in exchange for Moscows sympathy, it increased the supply of arms to Argentina, and strongly demanded that Armenian cease war and peace talks. After that, Azerbaijan also kept its promise and jointly built the Baku novorossiyskpipeline with Russia, which has been put into operation since 1997.

This war made it clear to Iraq and Turkey that although the Asian Arab conflict is profitable, it is likely to be self defeating and self Immolation; for Russia, it has not only won over Armenian, but also shaped the friendly to Russia Azerbaijani government through the war. Pro Asia but defeated Afghanistan has become the highest guiding principle for dealing with the Naka dispute.

The similarities and differences of goals give birth to the space for cease-fire

Looking back on the Naka conflict, although Asia and Afghanistan cease fire in 1994, Armenian not only controlled Naka, but also occupied the Azerbaijani territory to the west of this area and even to Armenian, resulting in the Naka area, which was not bordered by Asian countries, and could be closely linked with Asian countries after the war. According to statistics, Armenian now controls about 20% of the territory of Azerbaijani, only 7% of the Naka region, and the rest came from wartime occupation. Now, there is not only the old hatred of Nakas ownership, but also a new hatred of territorial return between Asia and Afghanistan. However, despite the structural gunpowder inventory, the weight of Naka conflict is still different between Asia and Afghanistan.

For Armenians, almost all the residents of Naka are Armenians, and Asia is also the real controller of this place. Such a situation seems to have a natural advantage, but in fact it implies a disadvantage of blood loss. The reason is that, no matter whether or not Armenian provokes a dispute, whenever a conflict breaks out, Naka is doomed to be the front line of artillery fire, and property and peoples casualties are indispensable. Therefore, it often raises the level of preparation for the war at the first time, and resort to large-scale international propaganda war, blaming Azerbaijan for the cause, and even exaggerating the severity of casualties.

Take this conflict as an example, on September 28, Armenian ordered the national mobilization, and within a few days in succession, it released news such as Turkish F-16 fighters broke into Asian airspace and shot down Su-25, which was only claimed by the Armenian Ministry of defense. It also produced national music videos to boost morale, and it was obviously quite attentive in war preparation and propaganda.

Compared with the day and night dispute of Armenian, the Naka dream of Azerbaijan is more like looking forward to the restoration of the country. After 91-94 years of war, the Azerbaijanis in Naka were cleaned up by Armenians, and the country lost control of Naka, so there was no burden here. No matter who provokes the war, Afghanistan can only prevent the Armenian counterattack as it did in the past. Even if the country fails to obtain the territory in Naka after the conflict, it will at most lose its troops, unlike the Asian countries which have to bear the extra pressure of the peoples destruction.

Therefore, in this conflict, the propaganda intensity of Azerbaijan is not as fierce as that of Armenian, and so far only partial mobilization has been carried out. Obviously, there is no plan to go all out for World War I. However, because of the gap between the two sides in terms of Naka, the mediation opportunity can be promoted.

For Russia, Turkey, Iraq and other neighboring powers, the lessons learned from the past wars have made it clear that once the conflict between Naga and Qatar is out of control, the spillover cost will be higher than the political benefits; and changing the status of Naka will infuriate Azerbaijan, and it is even more infeasible to ask the Armenians to give up here. Therefore, the best way to deal with it is to freeze the status quo and try to reduce the degree and duration of the two sides refutation.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true });})(); Nearly 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, many geopolitical situations have been rewritten. From Ukraine, Abkhazia, South Ossetia to the dispute over Naka, all kinds of ethnic conflicts have exploded under the discourse of identity politics, and are subject to the political latitude and longitude of great powers. However, the types of ethnic conflicts are different: Ukraine has become the front line of confrontation between Russia and the west, and the state system is still torn and conflicts are still in place; although the two countries are not accepted by the international community, all kinds of ethnic conflicts are broken up However, conflicts have been frozen and the development is relatively stable. Although Russia and the West maintain stability in the dispute over Naka, it has always been trapped in a Ukrainian dilemma, forming a normal situation in which peace and refutation coexist in the same territory. In this context, the conflict will not sleep too long, but it is also destined not to last too long. This article is the exclusive contribution of the observer. The content of the article is the authors personal view, which does not represent the platform view. Without authorization, it can not be reproduced, otherwise legal responsibility will be investigated. Pay close attention to guanchacn, the wechat of observer network, and read interesting articles every day. Source: observer.com editor in charge: Yao Wenguang_ NN1682

Nearly 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, many geopolitical situations have been rewritten. From Ukraine, Abkhazia, South Ossetia to the dispute over Naka, all kinds of ethnic conflicts have exploded under the discourse of identity politics, and are subject to the political latitude and longitude of great powers. However, the types of ethnic conflicts are different: Ukraine has become the front line of confrontation between Russia and the west, and the state system is still torn and conflicts are still in place; although the two countries are not accepted by the international community, all kinds of ethnic conflicts are broken up However, conflicts have been frozen and the development is relatively stable.

Although Russia and the West maintain stability in the dispute over Naka, it has always been trapped in a Ukrainian dilemma, forming a normal situation in which peace and refutation coexist in the same territory. In this context, the conflict will not sleep too long, but it is also destined not to last too long.

This article is the exclusive contribution of the observer. The content of the article is the authors personal view, which does not represent the platform view. Without authorization, it can not be reproduced, otherwise legal responsibility will be investigated. Pay close attention to guanchacn, the wechat of observer network, and read interesting articles every day.