Historical data show that the probability of A-share rising in one week after the festival is more than 60percent, and institutions are optimistic about high-quality varieties

category:Finance
 Historical data show that the probability of A-share rising in one week after the festival is more than 60percent, and institutions are optimistic about high-quality varieties


In the overall unfavorable situation of the peripheral market, can A-share have a good start in a week after the festival? There are three factors to be concerned about. First of all, the A50 Index has stabilized and rebounded after the recent panic. If the trend of Hong Kong stock market can stop falling and recover during the period of A-share market closing, it is expected to add confidence to the A-share market after the festival. Secondly, from the past data, the probability of A-share rising in the first week after the festival is as high as 60%. Finally, the centralized disclosure period of performance forecast for the third quarter after the festival is the final disclosure period for individual stock industry Performance will also become the focus of follow-up market attention.

Wei Fengchun, chief macro strategy analyst of Boshi fund, said that the probability of A-share sharp downward adjustment is low after the festival, and may continue to be horizontal, but the structural market has been very obvious. According to the open market data, since the implementation of A-share 10% up and down system at the end of 1996, in the first week after 23 National Day, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 16 times, accounting for 70% of the total; the Shenzhen stock index has risen 14 times, accounting for more than 60% of the total. The specific situation is shown in the following figure:

Jingshun Great Wall Fund said that repeated overseas outbreaks have brought potential risks to the economic recovery momentum of the United States and Europe. External interference is still concentrated. It will take time for investors in the short-term A-share market to repair their risk preference, but the space for further adjustment is relatively limited, and there are opportunities for bargain hunting in the volatile market. Fundamentals will become an important driving force of stock investment returns, and the strategy of selecting individual stocks is expected to obtain better excess returns. In terms of style, considering that the local market valuation pressure has been alleviated in the process of adjustment and the valuation differentiation among industries has converged, it is expected that style rebalancing will still be the main theme of the market in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter is not pessimistic about the equity market.

China Merchants Fund believes that the US general election will become an important watershed in asset price performance. With the elimination of policy uncertainty, the acceleration of vaccine launch and the implementation of the new financial rescue bill, the global economy is expected to usher in a relatively strong resonance recovery period, driving the current undervalued procyclical varieties to rise. In the fourth quarter, domestic broad credit will continue, and overseas liquidity will continue to be relaxed. At home, due to the first control of the epidemic situation, the economy took the lead to walk out of the bottom. The monetary policy of the peoples Bank of China has gradually returned to normal in the money market since the end of May. The currency portfolio in the fourth quarter is expected to continue the current situation of stable currency and broad credit.

Shanghai Investment Morgan said that the future market should also focus on the companys performance, and the alpha income of next years investment depends on the matching of valuation and performance. Typical examples include the recent photovoltaic industry, which has an upward boom, low valuation and good performance; the electric vehicle industry, whose valuation is acceptable in a long time dimension; and the leading companies in the software industry, whose industry status is also included It is very high, but the range of valuation fluctuates greatly.

Source: CFA editor in charge: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619