According to the data of Shell Research Institute, in the first three quarters of 2020, the total amount of bonds issued by real estate enterprises at home and abroad was about 971.8 billion yuan (as of September 24), up 1% year on year. The overall scale of issuance under the epidemic situation exceeded the original expectation. According to some opinions, it is mainly due to the loose margin of domestic financing environment in the direction of stabilizing the economy in the first half of the year. Some analysts believe that the new regulation of online financing is coming, prompting real estate enterprises to speed up the issuance of bonds.
The reporter learned that since April this year, LPR has been maintained at 3.85% for one year and 4.65% for five years, which has not been adjusted for five consecutive months. In the view of the industry, although LPR has not changed, the extremely loose monetary policy during the epidemic period has begun to tighten gradually. Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, told reporters that in the first half of the year, due to the implementation of loose monetary policy against the impact of the epidemic on the economy, some funds may enter the real estate market through leverage. He believes that the LPR interest rate has not changed for five months, which means that monetary policy has begun to be restrained and conservative when facing the second half of the year.
Three red lines will fully light up the signal lamp. Xu Xiaole said: the policy direction and market orientation of the three red lines have been clear, and now they have begun to urge real estate enterprises to optimize their financial structure, and the high leverage mode will be profoundly changed.
According to the statistics of 100 listed real estate enterprises by Zhuge housing data research center, the interest bearing debt scale of real estate enterprises in the first half of 2020 will further increase to 7.8 trillion yuan, up 6.82% compared with the end of 2019. The newly increased interest bearing liabilities of top 20 listed real estate enterprises in the first half of the year was 464.88 billion yuan, accounting for 92.9% of the total new liabilities of 100 real estate enterprises, and the concentration level was at a high level.
Due to the high financing demand of real estate enterprises, the bond interest rate has also increased accordingly. According to the shell Research Report, compared with the downward trend of financing interest rate in the first half of the year, the nominal interest rates at home and abroad increased significantly in the third quarter, and the window period of low financing interest rates has passed.
Knockout results will be real
Although real estate companies stepped up the issuance of bonds in the third quarter, they still failed to catch up with the growth rate of debt maturity scale. According to the shell report, the amount of debt due in the third quarter of the year was 286.2 billion yuan, an increase of 54.4% compared with that in the second quarter, and the corresponding bond issuance scale increased by 29.7%. Although the two changes in the same direction, the tight financial environment has restrained the demand for bonds issued by some real estate enterprises, resulting in a lower debt issuance scale than that in the same period. Statistics show that, from August to September, the scale of bond issuance has declined on a month on month basis, and the decline has gradually expanded, and the impact of financing supervision has initially appeared. However, the amount of debt due in the fourth quarter was equivalent to about 270.7 billion yuan, which was about 5.4% lower than that in the third quarter. It can be inferred that under the new financing rules in the fourth quarter, the growth rate of the scale of bonds issued by real estate enterprises will probably decline in the same trend, and the pressure on real estate enterprises will further increase.
According to the Mid-term Financial Data of real estate enterprises in 2020, Shell Research Institute selects 70 top 100 real estate enterprises for statistics, and the results are not optimistic. Among them, only 6 real estate enterprises did not step on the line; 24 real estate enterprises exceeded the threshold in one index; 21 real estate enterprises exceeded two indicators; and 19 real estate enterprises exceeded three indicators.
According to the Zhuge housing search report, from the top 20 real estate enterprises with interest bearing debt growth in the first half of 2020, the scale of interest bearing liabilities of CCCC, Suzhou hi tech, LIGO, Chengtou holding, sun Hongji and other real estate enterprises increased significantly, all over 30%. Among them, the scale of interest bearing liabilities of CCCC real estate increased by 150.5% year-on-year, ranking first in the growth rate. In the first half of this year, the scale of interest bearing liabilities was 33.084 billion yuan, and the net debt ratio reached an ultra-high level of 239%. The interest bearing debt growth rate of Suzhou hi tech has also reached a high level of 50%. The rigao group, which originated in Quanzhou, is also mired in debt. With its frequent issuance of bonds, its financing interest rate has increased from 9% in 2019 to 11%, and the future debt repayment pressure is huge.
It can be seen that the industry differentiation is becoming more and more clear with the coming of the three red lines. According to Zhuges house search statistics, the two camps with the highest interest bearing debt growth rate come from real estate enterprises with a scale of 150-200 billion yuan and small real estate enterprises with a scale of less than 50 billion yuan. Among them, small real estate enterprises under various pressures, crash risk is undoubtedly greater. According to Zhuges statistics, in the first half of the year, more than 220 real estate enterprises went bankrupt, most of which were caused by increased debt pressure, insolvency or poor management, which eventually led to bankruptcy.
And the security of large-scale real estate enterprises is relatively higher. In mid April this year, Moodys lowered the rating outlook of Chinas real estate industry from stable to negative, the first time in nearly five years. In August, Moodys once again adjusted the rating outlook of Chinas real estate industry from negative to stable, due to factors such as slow growth of sales of real estate enterprises, stable inventory level, and smooth flow of domestic and offshore financing channels for real estate enterprises with good financial conditions. According to Longhus announcement on September 10, Moodys raised Longhus issuer and senior non guaranteed rating from baa3 to Baa2, with a stable outlook. Under the influence of the epidemic, it became the first mainland real estate enterprise to obtain positive rating upgrade from Moodys. In mid September, more and more real estate enterprises, such as country garden and Baolong, have received an increase in the rating of issuers and related bonds issued by authoritative institutions.
Industry insiders believe that the upgrade of the rating of real estate issuers and related bonds by international authorities will boost the confidence of the whole industry and market expectations, and have a positive impact on the financing of real estate enterprises in the future.
Statistics show that in terms of cash coverage of short-term interest bearing liabilities, the average cash coverage of 100 listed real estate enterprises in the first half of 2020 is 102.5%, indicating that most of the real estate enterprises can cover the short-term debt situation, and the average cash coverage of top 20 short-term interest bearing liabilities reaches 215%. Among them, Binjiang, poly, Vanke, Xuhui, Biguiyuan, Zhonghai, Yuexiu and other real estate enterprises performed well in cash flow, with cash coverage of more than 130%. Analysts believe that: in the second half of the year, regulatory authorities have repeatedly released signals of regulatory upgrading and financial tightening. As a transitional period of tightening, the third quarter still maintains a relatively high bond issuance scale, and it is expected that the growth rate in the fourth quarter will decline. In the face of cash flow pressure, real estate companies may step up to seize the mid autumn 11 double holiday market and adopt promotion policies to offset the pressure of financing end with payment collection. Editor in charge: Zhang Pei editor in chief: Zhang Yuning extended reading SMIC International: some suppliers are further restricted by the U.S. export control regulations. Urumqi: overdue housing provident fund loans can be relaxed to December 31. Japanese media: Japanese enterprises Sony and Kaixia have applied to the U.S. government to continue to supply goods. Source: China Times editor in charge: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619
Statistics show that in terms of cash coverage of short-term interest bearing liabilities, the average cash coverage of 100 listed real estate enterprises in the first half of 2020 is 102.5%, indicating that most of the real estate enterprises can cover the short-term debt situation, and the average cash coverage of top 20 short-term interest bearing liabilities reaches 215%. Among them, Binjiang, poly, Vanke, Xuhui, Biguiyuan, Zhonghai, Yuexiu and other real estate enterprises performed well in cash flow, with cash coverage of more than 130%.
Analysts believe that: in the second half of the year, regulatory authorities have repeatedly released signals of regulatory upgrading and financial tightening. As a transitional period of tightening, the third quarter still maintains a relatively high bond issuance scale, and it is expected that the growth rate in the fourth quarter will decline. In the face of cash flow pressure, real estate companies may step up to seize the mid autumn 11 double holiday market and adopt promotion policies to offset the pressure of financing end with payment collection.
Editor in charge: Zhang Bei editor in chief: Zhang Yuning